Oil Near Four-Month High as Iran Tensions, Weak Dollar Support Prices

Oil prices climbed to their highest levels since late September, with Brent settling at $68.40 a barrel and WTI at $63.21, buoyed by rising tensions around Iran and a weaker U.S. dollar. Both benchmarks are on track for their strongest monthly gains since July 2023, up about 12% for Brent and 10% for WTI. Markets reacted to U.S. warnings toward Iran, the arrival of U.S. warships in the Middle East, and concerns over supply disruptions. Prices were further supported by a surprise 2.3 million-barrel draw in U.S. crude inventories and weather-related output losses of around 600,000 bpd. Ongoing production outages in Kazakhstan also added support, despite official hopes for a gradual restart at the Tengiz field.

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Iran Warns of Control Over Hormuz as US Sends Carrier Strike Group

An Iranian Revolutionary Guard commander said Tehran has “complete control” over the Strait of Hormuz and can decide which vessels are allowed to pass, as tensions rose following the arrival of a US aircraft carrier in the region. The warning came after US President Donald Trump urged Iran to negotiate on nuclear issues, threatening “violence” and deploying what he called a “massive armada” led by the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln. The carrier, redeployed from Asia, is accompanied by three destroyers and support vessels and carries F-35 and F/A-18 fighter jets. Iran said it does not want to harm the global economy but would not allow the US and its allies to benefit from conflict, underscoring the strategic importance of Hormuz, a key chokepoint for Middle East oil exports. The exchange of threats highlights growing geopolitical risk in a waterway central to global energy flows.

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Kazakhstan Aims for Full Tengiz Restart Within a Week Despite Market Skepticism

Kazakhstan said it is restarting the giant Tengiz oilfield in stages and is aiming to return to full production of around 900,000 bpd within a week after three transformer fires earlier this month cut output by about 7.2 million barrels. Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov said restoration is progressing gradually, with gas flows already resumed, though he acknowledged the technical challenges involved. Industry sources were more cautious, saying output is likely to remain just above two-thirds of normal levels until at least the end of February. Tengiz, operated by Chevron’s Tengizchevroil, is one of the world’s deepest supergiant oilfields with recoverable reserves of about 11.5 billion barrels and has recently undergone a $48 billion expansion. The outages at Tengiz and damage to the CPC export pipeline have temporarily reduced Kazakhstan’s output and exports but are expected to keep the country within its OPEC+ production limits overall.

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Sanctions Force Russia to Seek New Naphtha Buyers as Asian Demand Slips

Russia’s naphtha exports to Asia are set to fall sharply in January as U.S. sanctions prompt key buyers such as Taiwan, India and Venezuela to scale back purchases. Traders say buyers are increasingly cautious about sanctioned cargoes, forcing Russian sellers to store naphtha offshore or re-export it via hubs like Singapore, Indonesia and even Africa. Export volumes have also been hit by refinery and port shutdowns following Ukrainian drone attacks, with January shipments to Asia expected to drop to around 600,000 tons. Venezuela has halted imports of Russian naphtha used as a crude diluent after new U.S. restrictions, leaving a supply gap only partly filled by U.S. barrels. As a result, discounts on Russian naphtha are widening while premiums for non-sanctioned supplies are rising.

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Sanctioned Russian-Linked Tanker Sparks Alarm After Losing Control Near Gibraltar

A 19-year-old, EU- and UK-sanctioned tanker, the Chariot Tide, lost control while entering the Mediterranean in late January, marking the second Russia-linked tanker incident in under a week on the same route. The vessel’s speed fell below two knots near Tangier on Jan. 21, prompting it to declare itself “not under command” before later shifting to “in casualty or repairing,” and it was briefly shadowed by a Spanish tug in the busy Alboran Sea. The tanker is carrying about 300,000 barrels of diesel loaded at Primorsk in Russia’s Baltic Sea and had just resumed trading after leaving a Turkish shipyard in November. The episode follows a similar loss of control by the tanker Progress and a French naval boarding of another Russian-linked vessel, reinforcing concerns that Moscow’s sanctions-evading “shadow fleet” poses heightened environmental and navigational risks. Ownership and management opacity adds to scrutiny, with the ship’s manager, Clariton Shipping Ltd., having been annulled on Feb. 7, 2025, according to maritime registry data.

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EU Plans to Exempt US and Qatar Gas from Extra Checks Under Russian Import Ban

The European Union will waive additional verification checks on gas imports from key suppliers such as the U.S., Qatar, Norway and Britain under its planned ban on Russian gas, according to a draft European Commission document. While the EU will require prior authorisation for most non-Russian gas shipments to prove their country of origin, this rule will not apply to trusted suppliers deemed at low risk of re-exporting Russian gas. The move supports the EU’s legally binding plan to phase out Russian gas imports by late 2027 while safeguarding supplies from major partners.

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Pemex’s Olmeca Refinery Halts After Power Failure, Gradual Restart Underway

Mexico’s Olmeca refinery at Dos Bocas halted operations on Monday after a power failure shut its coking, catalytic cracking and hydrodesulphurization units, delaying the processing of about 150,000 barrels of crude, according to internal reports. Pemex began restarting units on Tuesday, though it has not confirmed whether full operations have resumed. The refinery, which started operations in 2024, has a nameplate capacity of 340,000 barrels per day, but has faced repeated outages including a similar power failure in August last year. In December 2025, Olmeca processed 263,402 bpd, its highest level so far, but output remains well below maximum capacity due to ongoing operational challenges.

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Cold-Driven Grid Stress Threatens Fresh Spike in U.S. Diesel Prices

Diesel prices could climb further as extreme cold strains U.S. power grids and regulators authorize data centers and large facilities to run diesel-powered backup generators to prevent blackouts. On Monday, the U.S. Department of Energy allowed PJM Interconnection, the nation’s largest grid operator, and two Duke Energy units to deploy backup generation if demand surges intensify, potentially diverting power from industrial users to households. Analysts warn that widespread generator use would tighten diesel markets, with diesel futures projected to reach 275 cents per gallon by week’s end if generators are activated. Heating oil futures have already jumped 25% in January, driven by cold weather, refinery disruptions, fuel-switching at power plants, and soaring natural gas prices. Despite these pressures, U.S. diesel inventories remain at or above year-ago levels, including in Virginia, home to the country’s largest concentration of data centers.

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CMB.Tech Exits Tankers International VLCC Pool After Six-Vessel Sale

CMB.Tech decided to sell its 50% stake in the Tankers International (TI) VLCC pool to International Seaways after agreeing to sell six VLCCs, which significantly reduced its presence in the pool, the Belgian owner said. The company confirmed that following the disposal of the six vessels — reported by brokers as the 306,000-dwt Daishan (2007-built), 299,999-dwt Dia (2015), 299,421-dwt Antigone (2015), 302,550-dwt Hirado (2011), 302,965-dwt Hojo (2013) and 299,999-dwt Aegean (2016) — it felt the timing was right to exit the shareholding, though it has no current plans to withdraw other vessels from the TI pool. The ships, widely reported as sold to Sinokor Maritime and due for delivery in the current quarter, will leave the TI VLCC pool, while two additional VLCCs controlled by Seaways are also expected to exit, reducing the 27-vessel pool further. The move comes as Tankers International announced the launch of a new suezmax pool starting with 11 Seaways-controlled vessels currently in the Maersk Tankers pool, though CMB.Tech said it has no plans for now to contribute vessels to the new suezmax platform.