Oil Jumps Nearly 3% on Iran Tensions and Kazakhstan Supply Risks

Oil prices surged nearly 3% to a one-week high after President Donald Trump announced new sanctions on Iranian oil vessels and said a U.S. naval armada, including an aircraft carrier and guided-missile destroyers, is heading toward the Middle East, raising fears of supply disruptions. Brent settled up $1.82 (2.8%) at $65.88 a barrel and WTI rose $1.71 (2.9%) to $61.07, with both benchmarks gaining over 2.5% on the week. The U.S. also sanctioned nine vessels and eight firms tied to Iranian oil trade, targeting flows from Iran, OPEC’s fourth-largest producer at about 3.2 million bpd. Supply concerns were compounded by Kazakhstan, where output from the Tengiz field—nearly half of national production—remains shut, with JP Morgan estimating January output at just 1.0–1.1 million bpd versus a normal 1.8 million bpd. Together, escalating Middle East tensions and Kazakh export disruptions drove bullish sentiment in oil markets.

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US Warns Iraq of Sanctions Threat to Oil Revenues Over Iran-Backed Groups

The United States has warned Iraqi leaders it could impose sanctions on the Iraqi state — including suspending access to vital oil revenue dollars — if Iran-backed armed groups are included in the next government, according to Reuters sources. The message, delivered repeatedly by the U.S. charge d’affaires in Baghdad, reportedly targeted 58 lawmakers viewed by Washington as linked to Iran, with officials saying dollar transfers via the Federal Reserve Bank of New York could be halted. Iraq relies on these oil revenues, controlled through U.S.-based accounts, making the threat a powerful lever as Iran-linked factions seek cabinet roles after November elections. The pressure campaign appears to be having some effect, with at least one Iran-backed faction signaling willingness to concede key political posts to avoid U.S. retaliation.

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India Seeks Stronger Oil Deals as Russian Supplies Decline

India is looking to leverage its rising energy demand to secure better oil and gas supply terms as imports from Russia slow, Oil Minister Hardeep Singh Puri said. India, which became the largest buyer of discounted Russian crude after 2022, has gradually reduced those purchases due to complications from Western sanctions, with Russian imports falling to a two-year low in December and OPEC’s share hitting an 11-month high. Puri noted that supplies from one previously dominant source are easing, while ample global supply and rising output from countries such as Brazil, Guyana, Suriname and the US give India stronger negotiating power. To offset reduced Russian inflows, Indian refiners are increasing purchases from the Middle East, Africa and South America, a shift that could also support tariff negotiations with Washington. Recent deals include BPCL doubling its annual contract with Brazil’s Petrobras and Indian Oil buying 7 million barrels for March loading, including crude from Brazil, Colombia and Ecuador.

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Winter Storm Fern Cuts US Oil and Gas Output, Sends Power Prices Surging

U.S. crude and natural gas production declined as Winter Storm Fern spread frigid temperatures, snow and ice across much of the country, disrupting energy markets and power grids. Analysts estimate crude output losses of around 300,000 bpd, with the Permian Basin alone potentially down 200,000 bpd, while North Dakota output has already fallen by up to 110,000 bpd, or 5–10% of state production. Fuel markets are bracing for weaker gasoline demand but stronger diesel consumption, with U.S. diesel futures jumping about 3% to $2.44 a gallon on concerns over heating demand and refinery disruptions.

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Europe Poised for Record LNG Imports as Global Supply Surges, IEA Says

Europe is set to import a record 185 billion cubic metres of liquefied natural gas in 2026, up from 175 bcm in 2025, as it continues to cut reliance on Russian energy, the International Energy Agency said. Global LNG supply is forecast to grow by more than 7% in 2026 — the fastest pace since 2019 — with North America contributing most of the roughly 40 bcm increase. The United States is leading expansion and investment, having approved more than 80 bcm of annual LNG capacity, while global supply already rose nearly 7% in 2025. The IEA said the growing LNG wave should improve market liquidity and put downward pressure on prices, as gas trading volumes hit record highs across major hubs. However, it warned that geopolitical risks and weather remain key uncertainties for global gas markets.

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Frontline Locks In Record VLCC Rates with $76,900-a-Day Charters

Frontline has chartered out seven VLCCs for one year at about $76,900 per day, levels its CEO called unprecedented and unseen for decades. The contracts, starting between late January and April, are widely believed to be with South Korea’s Sinokor, though Frontline did not name the counterparty. Despite the fixtures, Frontline said it remains largely exposed to the spot market to retain upside in volatile conditions. Market sources say Sinokor is rapidly expanding its VLCC control through charters and secondhand purchases, reshaping the sector. The deals are estimated to generate nearly $200m in revenue for Frontline.

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IMO Seeks Compromise to Revive Shipping’s Net-Zero Strategy

The IMO’s chief Arsenio Dominguez said he is open to compromise as he begins talks to break a deadlock over shipping’s plan to reach net-zero emissions around 2050. He will engage all parties, including the US, which opposed a proposed global carbon levy to fund the energy transition. Dominguez said all options remain open, acknowledging concerns over the net-zero fund and claims that LNG is being unfairly penalized as a transition fuel. Despite a year-long delay caused by US resistance, he said Washington has not indicated plans to leave the IMO and remains active in the body. He emphasized that there is still broad support for tougher environmental rules ahead of a key IMO meeting in April.