Oil Prices Ease as Storm Disruptions Fade and Geopolitical Risks Weighed

Oil prices settled slightly lower on Monday, with Brent down 0.4% at $65.59 a barrel and WTI down 0.7% at $60.63, as traders assessed fading U.S. winter storm disruptions and geopolitical risks. U.S. producers had lost up to 2 million bpd, about 15% of national output, over the weekend, but outages eased to around 700,000 bpd in the Permian Basin and production is expected to be fully restored by January 30. Kazakhstan signaled a resumption of output at its Tengiz field, though volumes remain low and force majeure on CPC Blend exports is still in place, even as the CPC terminal returned to full loading capacity. Market sentiment also remained cautious amid U.S.–Iran tensions and expectations that OPEC+ will maintain its pause on output increases for March, while analysts warned prolonged low prices could cut U.S. shale output by up to 400,000 bpd in 2026.

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OPEC+ Seen Holding Output Steady for March as Kazakhstan Disruption Lifts Prices

OPEC+ is expected to maintain its pause on oil production increases for March when eight key members meet on February 1, according to OPEC+ delegates. Oil prices have climbed about 8% this month to above $66 a barrel, supported by lower output from Kazakhstan. The group had previously raised output targets by around 2.9 million bpd between April and December 2025 but paused further monthly hikes for January–March due to weak demand expectations. Kazakhstan’s Tengiz oilfield is likely to remain offline through January, with national output averaging 1.0–1.1 million bpd versus a normal level of about 1.8 million bpd, JP Morgan said. Delegates also noted that any recovery in Venezuelan production would take time and is unlikely to significantly affect global supply in the near term.

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Kazakhstan Signals Tengiz Restart, but Output Seen Returning Only Gradually

Kazakhstan said production at its giant Tengiz oil field is set to resume soon after power supply was restored, though industry sources say initial volumes remain far below normal levels. Chevron confirmed that oil production has restarted, while the energy ministry said the Korolev field is already operating and Tengiz will follow shortly. Sources estimate current output at only about 60,000 bpd, roughly 6% of usual capacity, with a force majeure on CPC Blend exports still in place. Meanwhile, the Caspian Pipeline Consortium has restored full loading capacity at its Black Sea terminal, potentially easing export constraints once production recovers.

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EU Locks In Ban on Russian Gas Imports by 2027 Despite Dissent

EU countries gave final approval to a legally binding ban on Russian gas imports by late 2027, with LNG imports to stop by end-2026 and pipeline gas by September 30, 2027, although Hungary and Slovakia voted against and Bulgaria abstained. The decision, approved by a reinforced majority, allows a possible extension to November 1, 2027, if countries struggle to fill gas storage ahead of winter. Russia once supplied over 40% of EU gas before 2022, but this fell to about 13% in 2025, even as some states continue buying Russian oil and gas. The law bans new Russian gas contracts and forces termination of existing ones, with short-term deals signed before June 17, 2025, ending in 2026 and long-term contracts phased out by the final deadlines. Companies that fail to comply could face penalties of up to 3.5% of global annual turnover, while the European Commission plans further measures targeting Russian oil pipelines and nuclear fuel.

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Chevron Expands Venezuelan Crude Shipments with Largest Fleet in a Year

Chevron has deployed its largest fleet in nearly a year to ship Venezuelan crude, sending 15 vessels this month to move at least 200,000 barrels per day. The increase follows stronger US control over Venezuela’s oil sector and the disappearance of “dark fleet” shipments after Washington pledged to crack down on illicit trading. Chevron, which holds a US license, is taking more oil from its Petroboscan joint venture with PDVSA, with Boscan crude making up about half of shipments. All cargoes are heading to US refiners, including Valero and Phillips 66. The US has also enlisted traders Vitol and Trafigura to help market up to 50 million barrels of Venezuelan oil.

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Greek Tankers Snap Up Big Charters as VLCC Boom Lifts Market

A surge in VLCC chartering has sparked a broader chartering spree dominated by Greek-owned tankers, with oil majors and traders locking in vessels at sharply higher rates. Highlights include Sinokor, Shell, Mercuria, ExxonMobil, Phillips 66, PBF Energy and Glencore fixing Greek VLCCs, suezmaxes, aframaxes and product tankers on periods ranging from one year to five years. Rates hit record or near-record levels across segments, underscoring strong demand for Greek tonnage as the VLCC rally pulls up the wider tanker market.

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VLCC Buying Spree Intensifies as Soaring Rates Fuel Secondhand Deals

Strong VLCC spot earnings above $100,000 per day are driving renewed dealmaking for modern secondhand tankers, with buyers crowding into the market. Chinese financial owners sold the 308,000-dwt CSSC Liao Ning (built 2020) for about $112–113m, a discount to valuations due to an existing Koch charter at $41,725 per day, potentially extendable at $50,000. Modern eco scrubber-fitted VLCCs earned about $107,000 per day spot last week, while one-year charters hit a near two-year high of $71,750 per day. Competition for the vessel was intense, with seven offers reflecting optimism over VLCC fundamentals and tight supply. Recent deals also include Trafigura-linked purchases of 2021–2022-built VLCCs priced between $125m and $130m.

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Poten Predicts Smaller Shadow Fleet and Falling Tanker Orderbook in 2026

US broker Poten & Partners predicts the global shadow tanker fleet will shrink in 2026 as ageing sanctioned vessels face tighter enforcement and fewer trading opportunities, with the fleet currently estimated at 1,306 tankers. The broker argues that US control over Venezuela’s oil sector and increased pressure on buyers of Russian crude, particularly India, will curb the usefulness of the dark fleet and eventually weigh on Russian exports. Poten also expects the tanker orderbook to peak after reaching 61.6m gross tons at the end of 2025, with deliveries outpacing new orders in 2026. Under US supervision, Venezuela’s oil output and exports are forecast to rise by about 250,000 barrels per day this year. Despite geopolitical tensions, Poten believes softer oil prices will prompt OPEC+ to cut production again, though some analysts see any cuts slipping to 2027.