Oil Rises as Kazakh Supply Halt Lifts Prices, While Trump Tariff Risks Cap Gains

Oil prices climbed as Kazakhstan’s Tengiz oilfield, producing about 860,000 bpd, was shut and could remain offline for 7–10 days, disrupting exports via the CPC pipeline. Brent settled up 98 cents (+1.53%) at $64.92 a barrel, while WTI rose about 1.5% to around $60.34–$60.36. Prices were further supported by stronger economic signals, including China’s 5% GDP growth last year, a 4.1% rise in refinery throughput, and an IMF upgrade to global growth expectations. A weaker U.S. dollar and firmer diesel prices also helped sentiment. However, upside was capped by concerns that Trump’s proposed 10% tariffs from Feb. 1, rising to 25% from June 1 over the Greenland dispute could weigh on global growth and oil demand.

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Tengiz Oilfield Shutdown Extended, Forcing Kazakhstan to Lean on Other Fields

Oil production at Kazakhstan’s giant Tengiz oilfield is expected to remain halted for another 7–10 days following a fire that disrupted power supply, cutting crude exports via the Caspian Pipeline Consortium. Operator Tengizchevroil has already cancelled five CPC Blend cargoes totaling up to 700,000 metric tons for January and February loadings. While the shutdown has not yet reduced national output, other major fields such as Kashagan and Karachaganak have increased production to partially offset the loss. Sources warn, however, that CPC throughput is likely to decline in the coming days if the outage persists. Kazakhstan continues to reroute some crude through alternative pipelines amid ongoing export constraints.

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Drone Attacks Disrupt CPC Terminal, Tightening Black Sea Suezmax Flows

Ukrainian drone strikes have significantly disrupted operations at Russia’s CPC terminal near Novorossiysk, with February schedules showing 42 suezmax cargoes but loading limited to just one of three single-point moorings and no aframax shipments planned. Although CPC sharply increased suezmax loadings in 2025 compared with 2024, January plans were cut back after 14 cargoes were cancelled, and some February stems were deferred, prompting traders to call the programme “ambitious.” Cargo sizes are expected to be reduced to around 120,000 tonnes due to ongoing constraints, forcing production cuts because of limited storage capacity. The terminal, which handles about 80% of Kazakhstan’s oil exports, has seen shipments slump sharply, with early-January exports falling to around 516,000 bpd as CPC loadings dropped to roughly 400,000 bpd. Market participants say there is still no clear timeline for restoring the damaged moorings, keeping tanker activity and export volumes under pressure.

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Venezuela Secures $300 Million from Oil Sales as Government Moves to Reform Oil Law

Venezuela has received $300 million in oil-sale proceeds, the first funds linked to a 50-million-barrel oil supply deal announced by U.S. President Donald Trump, interim president Delcy Rodriguez said. The money forms part of an initial $500 million tranche and has been deposited in an account in Qatar, with four Venezuelan banks set to distribute the funds through the domestic exchange market. Rodriguez said the funds will be used to stabilize the currency market and protect workers’ purchasing power. Trump claimed the U.S. has taken the full 50 million barrels, though shipping data shows exports have not yet occurred. Meanwhile, lawmakers are preparing to debate reforms to Venezuela’s hydrocarbons law aimed at boosting foreign investment through new partnership structures.

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US Plans to Broaden Venezuelan Oil Sales Beyond Vitol and Trafigura

The United States plans to open Venezuelan crude sales to more traders and refiners beyond Vitol and Trafigura through a broader general license that would route all deals via the US market. The shift follows the handling of up to 50 million barrels released after President Nicolás Maduro’s capture, when exports were constrained by a partial US blockade. Broader access could ease congestion at Venezuelan ports and storage, enabling some shut-in wells to restart, though a major production recovery would still take years and require tens of billions of dollars. Exports had already fallen as shadow-fleet operators pulled back amid US naval pressure and tanker seizures, but cargoes are now reaching a wider range of buyers, including India and the US Gulf Coast. The policy also tightens pressure on illicit shipping, with the US having seized six tankers in just over a month.

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Vitol Loads First Onshore Venezuelan Crude as Exports Restart Under US Deal

Vitol Group has loaded its first Venezuelan crude cargo directly from shore-based storage tanks, shipping about 500,000 barrels to Curacao in a move aimed at easing storage bottlenecks and supporting a gradual recovery in production. Vitol and Trafigura were authorized by the Trump administration to market up to 50 million barrels of Venezuelan oil after the US seized control following Nicolás Maduro’s capture. Venezuelan exports have slumped sharply in recent weeks as shadow traders withdrew, causing crude to back up in domestic storage and forcing some well shut-ins. This shipment marks the first export from onshore tanks, following earlier cargoes that were already afloat, and signals progress in restoring oil flows. Caribbean storage is expected to serve as a temporary holding point until demand picks up later in the year.

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Venezuelan Crude Shifts to Caribbean Hubs Under New US-Led Trade Framework

Venezuelan crude oil is moving into Caribbean storage hubs as tankers openly discharge cargoes, signaling a new trade order after the US asserted control over the country’s oil sector. Around 2.5 million barrels of Merey crude were unloaded in Saint Lucia and Curacao, with additional shipments headed to the Bahamas in the coming days. Trafigura and Vitol have been tasked by the Trump administration to market the oil, while US companies are being encouraged to invest, reshaping shipping patterns and pushing up freight rates. Formerly opaque “dark fleet” tankers are reappearing as exports shift away from China toward a broader set of destinations. The Caribbean is emerging as a key staging ground for Venezuelan crude flows to Indian and US Gulf Coast refiners.

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China’s December Crude Imports Shift as UAE, Brazil and Canada Hit Records

China’s crude imports in December showed a sharp shift in sourcing, with record inflows from the UAE, Brazil and Canada offsetting weaker volumes linked to sanctioned routes. Imports from the UAE surged 116.4% year on year to 6.1 million metric tons (1.44 million bpd), while Brazil’s shipments jumped 109.6% to 5.4 million tons (1.27 million bpd) and Canada’s rose 104.5% to a record 2.33 million tons (0.55 million bpd). Russia remained China’s top supplier despite a 0.7% annual decline to 9.33 million tons (2.2 million bpd), marking its highest monthly level of 2025. By contrast, imports from Malaysia, a key trans-shipment hub for Iranian oil, fell 37.9% to 4.14 million tons, while there were no reported imports from Iran, Venezuela or the United States. The data underline China’s increasing reliance on alternative suppliers amid tighter enforcement around sanctioned crude flows.

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China Fuel Oil Imports Fall 10% in 2025 as Tax Changes Curb Refinery Demand

China’s fuel oil imports declined 10.4% year-on-year to 21.6 million metric tons (≈376,000 bpd) in 2025 from a record over 24 million tons in 2024, mainly due to lower tax rebates and higher import taxes. Independent refiners reduced purchases as fuel oil became less competitive versus crude, with analysts expecting crude to remain the preferred feedstock into 2026 unless crude supply tightens. Meanwhile, marine fuel exports rose 11.6% to 20.47 million tons, driven by growing bunkering activity. Zhoushan strengthened its position as a major global refuelling hub, surpassing Fujairah and reaching over 8 million tons of bunker sales in 2025. Overall, the data highlights weaker domestic refinery demand but strong growth in China’s marine fuel export market.

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Russia’s Primorsk Diesel Exports Poised for Record High in January

Ultra-low-sulphur diesel (ULSD) exports from Russia’s Primorsk port are expected to jump by about one-third in January from December, potentially exceeding 2.2 million metric tons, supported by higher refinery output and seasonally weaker domestic demand. In December, shipments already rose 35% month-on-month to 1.7 million tons. So far this month, loadings have reached 1.356 million tons, averaging around 71,400 tons per day, with Turkey, Brazil and Morocco among key destinations. An additional four vessels carrying 170,000 tons of ULSD are currently loading at the port.