Oil Prices Steady as Iran Tensions Ease and Greenland Dispute Raises Broader Risk Concerns

Oil prices steadied as easing civil unrest in Iran reduced fears of a U.S. attack that could disrupt supplies, while attention shifted to rising geopolitical tensions over Greenland. Brent hovered near $64 a barrel and WTI around $59, with muted trading due to a U.S. holiday. Analysts said the Greenland dispute has no direct oil impact but could weigh on demand sentiment if it escalates into a wider U.S.–Europe trade conflict. Broader market unease was reflected in falling global equities and a move into safe-haven currencies. Longer term, analysts see oil prices capped by rising Venezuelan supply but supported by expectations of stronger global growth in 2026, pointing to a sideways market.

___________________________________

EU Halts US Trade Deal as Trump Escalates Greenland Pressure

The European Union has suspended ratification of a trade agreement with the United States after President Donald Trump intensified pressure on Denmark to give up Greenland. EU leaders say zero tariffs on U.S. goods are no longer viable and are weighing up to €93 billion in retaliatory tariffs and other restrictions. Trump has announced new tariffs starting at 10% on several European countries, with rates set to rise to 25% unless Washington’s Greenland demands are met. These moves threaten to unravel the trade deal agreed last July between Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. The dispute raises the risk of a broader EU-U.S. trade conflict despite earlier commitments on energy purchases and market access.

___________________________________

China Sets New Records in Refining, Oil and Gas Output in 2025

China’s refinery throughput rose 4.1% in 2025 to a record 14.75 million barrels per day, while crude oil output also hit an all-time high, growing 1.5% year on year, official data showed. The increase was driven by capacity expansion at state-owned refiners, the ramp-up of the private Yulong mega refinery, and stronger offshore production led by CNOOC. Trade tensions with the US and slower LPG import growth pushed refiners to shift from road fuels toward crude-based petrochemical feedstocks. Bohai Sea output played a major role, accounting for nearly 40% of China’s oil production growth over the past five years. Meanwhile, natural gas output climbed 6.2% to a record level, even as total gas imports declined due to a sharp drop in LNG purchases.

___________________________________

Renewables Drive First Decline in China’s Thermal Power Generation in a Decade

China’s coal-dominated thermal power generation fell by 1% in 2025, marking its first annual decline in 10 years as rapid renewable expansion met electricity demand growth. Despite overall power consumption hitting a record above 10 trillion kWh, renewables, hydropower, and nuclear output increasingly displaced coal-fired generation. Analysts said massive renewable buildouts and slower demand growth structurally squeezed coal’s share of the power mix. Hydropower and nuclear generation both posted solid gains, reinforcing the shift toward cleaner energy sources. Experts expect thermal power growth to remain subdued in 2026 as renewables continue expanding and demand growth stabilizes.

___________________________________

Vitol Offers Venezuelan Crude to China at Narrower Discount Than Before

Vitol Group has offered Venezuelan Merey crude to Chinese buyers at discounts of about $5 per barrel to ICE Brent for deliveries in the second half of April. This marks a much narrower discount compared with the roughly $15-per-barrel discounts seen in earlier years, when Venezuelan crude was among the world’s cheapest. The move is seen as a test of Chinese demand for heavy, sour Venezuelan oil at higher price levels. Vitol has been loading Venezuelan crude under U.S. Treasury licenses, with proceeds placed in U.S.-controlled accounts.

___________________________________

China Scoops Up Cheap Russian Urals Crude as India Retreats Under Sanctions

China’s imports of Russian Urals crude have climbed to their highest level since 2023 as India sharply cut purchases due to tougher Western sanctions and an impending EU ban on fuels made from Russian oil. Reduced Indian demand has redirected discounted Russian barrels to China, helping offset the loss of Venezuelan oil supplies. China’s Urals imports reached about 405,000 bpd this month, while total seaborne Russian crude imports exceeded 1.4 million bpd. Independent refiners in Shandong, including the Yulong mega-refinery, have boosted buying after receiving new import quotas and taking advantage of deep discounts. Urals crude has recently traded cheaper than Iranian oil, intensifying competition among sanctioned suppliers in the Chinese market.

___________________________________

India’s MRPL Eyes Venezuelan Crude After Halting Russian Oil Imports

India’s Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd (MRPL) is exploring purchases of Venezuelan oil after stopping Russian crude imports to comply with U.S. and EU sanctions, its finance chief said. The state-run refiner, which exports about 40% of its fuel output, said higher export margins are offsetting the loss of Russian supplies and that exports are not expected to be disrupted. MRPL currently sources around 40% of its crude from the Middle East, with the remainder from spot markets and domestic production, and will consider Venezuelan oil if commercial terms are attractive. Other Indian refiners, including Reliance, Indian Oil and Hindustan Petroleum, are also weighing Venezuelan purchases. To lift profits, MRPL is shifting toward direct retail sales and plans to sharply expand its fuel station network over the next five years.

___________________________________

India, UAE Seal $3 Billion LNG Deal and Deepen Strategic Ties

India and the United Arab Emirates signed a $3 billion LNG agreement as their leaders met to strengthen trade and defence cooperation. Under the deal, ADNOC Gas will supply 0.5 million metric tons of LNG annually to Hindustan Petroleum for 10 years, making India the UAE’s largest LNG customer and lifting ADNOC Gas’ total India contracts above $20 billion. The two countries also pledged to double bilateral trade to $200 billion within six years and agreed to work toward a strategic defence partnership. UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed held brief talks with Prime Minister Narendra Modi during a short visit to India. Indian officials stressed that closer defence ties with the UAE do not imply involvement in regional conflicts.

___________________________________

Heavier Middle East Crudes Gain Appeal as Light Oil Premiums Rise

Middle Eastern oil prices are diverging as heavier and more sour grades become cheaper relative to lighter crudes, prompting Asian refiners to shift their buying to improve margins. Premiums for light benchmark Murban have risen sharply, while grades such as Upper Zakum and Al Shaheen have lagged due to increased supply and weaker relative demand. Tight global availability of light crudes, including reduced CPC flows from Kazakhstan after disruptions, has further pushed up prices for lighter barrels. Higher freight costs and strong demand have also kept light crude imports from the Americas and North Sea expensive. As a result, refiners in Japan, South Korea, and India are increasingly favoring medium and heavy Middle Eastern grades.

___________________________________

Shell Seeks Exit from Syria’s Largest Oilfield as US Firms Eye Entry

Shell has asked to withdraw from Syria’s al-Omar oilfield and transfer its stake to state-owned operators, according to the head of the Syrian Petroleum Company, as the government regains control of the country’s largest oilfield. The field, previously run as a joint venture with Shell, is now under Syrian government control after Kurdish forces were ousted, and negotiations are ongoing over a financial settlement. Shell suspended all Syrian operations in 2011 due to the civil war and EU sanctions. Syrian officials said US companies including ConocoPhillips, Chevron and HKN Energy have expressed interest in investing in Syria’s oil and gas sector, with ConocoPhillips already signing an agreement to develop gas fields. The al-Omar field once produced 50,000 bpd but now needs major repairs, while Syria’s total oil output remains far below pre-war levels.

___________________________________

VLCC Rates Surge as Owners and Charterers Brace for a Market Showdown

VLCC spot rates have surged nearly 90% in a week to around $127,000 per day, driven by tight tonnage, heavy fixing activity, and rising geopolitical risk premiums. Owners are pushing for further gains, while charterers are showing hesitation as freight levels climb, setting the stage for a standoff over near-term direction. Brokers say the Atlantic market led the rally, with the Middle East now at risk of softening if cargo volumes thin. Crude market dynamics are also supportive, with heavy sour oil oversupplied and light sweet grades tightening after supply disruptions. Analysts warn that whoever concedes first—owners or charterers—could set the tone for the rest of the week.

___________________________________

Procopiou Orders Four VLCCs at Hengli as Dynacom Expands Tanker Fleet

Greek shipowner George Procopiou has ordered four VLCC newbuildings at China’s Hengli Shipbuilding through Dynacom Tankers Management, with the deal valued at up to $600 million. The 306,000-dwt crude carriers are scheduled for delivery from the second half of 2028. If confirmed, Dynacom’s VLCC orderbook could rise to as many as 17 vessels, with multiple tankers also under construction at other Chinese yards. Hengli continues to dominate VLCC contracting, holding the largest global orderbook with 35 vessels. Overall, about two-thirds of the world’s 160 VLCCs on order are set to be built in China.