Oil Prices Slide as Trump Signals Lower Risk of Iran Supply Disruption

Oil prices fell about 4%, snapping a five-day rally after U.S. President Donald Trump said Iran’s crackdown on protests was easing, reducing fears of imminent military action and potential supply disruptions. Brent settled at $63.76 a barrel and WTI at $59.19 after both had reached multi-month highs earlier in the week, with analysts saying a geopolitical risk premium was rapidly unwound. Additional pressure came from larger-than-expected rises in U.S. crude and gasoline inventories, signs that Venezuela is reversing production cuts and resuming exports, and expectations of greater stability following positive Trump–Venezuela discussions. While OPEC projected steady demand growth and near balance in 2026, and China reported strong crude import data, the easing of Iran-related tensions and improving supply outlook kept oil prices anchored lower.

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Europe Lowers Russian Oil Price Cap Again, Deepening Policy Split With US

European governments have agreed to cut the price cap on Russian crude exports for a second time in six months, lowering it from $47.60 to $44.10 per barrel from February, while the US keeps its cap unchanged at $60. The move bans European shipping, insurance and financial services from handling Russian oil sold above the cap and reflects Europe’s effort to keep the limit 15% below average Urals prices under its semi-floating mechanism. The decision highlights widening transatlantic differences in sanctions policy and has further pushed Russia toward non-European shipping, insurance and management services. As a result, the share of Russian exports carried by tankers with International Group P&I cover has fallen sharply, particularly for Pacific shipments. The EU said constraining Russia’s energy revenues remains a top priority and is now considering replacing the price cap entirely with a full ban on maritime services for Russian crude.

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U.S. Secures Sharper Pricing on Venezuelan Crude After Maduro Ouster

The United States is selling Venezuelan crude at prices about 30% higher than those achieved by Venezuela just weeks earlier, according to U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright, highlighting a sharp turnaround following the capture of President Nicolas Maduro. The higher realized prices come as Washington begins marketing Venezuelan oil under a $2 billion bilateral deal, with the first $500 million tranche already sold and up to 50 million barrels slated for sale. Late last year, PDVSA was forced to offer steep discounts due to sanctions, quality issues, and heavy competition from discounted Russian and Iranian oil, with Merey crude offered as much as $14 below Brent to attract buyers. By contrast, this week Merey-16 was offered to the U.S. Gulf Coast at roughly a $6 discount to Brent, underscoring how improved market access, reduced risk, and tighter control over sales have significantly boosted realized prices for Venezuelan barrels under U.S. management.

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U.S. Seizes Sixth Venezuela-Linked Oil Tanker Amid Intensifying Crackdown

The United States has seized another Venezuela-linked tanker in the Caribbean, marking the sixth such action since mid-December as Washington tightens control over oil shipments tied to Venezuela. U.S. Southern Command said forces apprehended the Aframax tanker Veronica without incident, accusing it of operating in defiance of President Donald Trump’s quarantine on sanctioned vessels. Officials said many of the targeted ships were either sanctioned directly or part of a shadow fleet used to disguise the origin of oil from Venezuela and other sanctioned producers. The seizure comes ahead of a meeting between Trump and Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado and follows the U.S. ousting of President Nicolas Maduro earlier this month.

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Trafigura Begins Caribbean Storage of Venezuelan Crude Under US Plan Summary:

Trafigura has moved to discharge its first cargo of Venezuelan oil after its vessel Regina arrived off Curacao, marking a key step in a US-backed effort to market up to 50 million barrels of Venezuelan crude following Washington’s move to take control of the country’s oil flows. The cargo, consisting of about 563,000 barrels of Merey 16, will be stored at the Bullen Bay terminal, which is also set to receive 600,000 barrels from Vitol aboard the vessel Volans. Curacao is expected to serve as a regional staging hub thanks to its proximity to US refiners and major shipping routes to Europe and Asia.

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European Oil Majors Seek U.S. Approval to Resume Venezuelan Crude Exports

Several European partners of Venezuela’s state oil company PDVSA, including Repsol, ENI and Maurel & Prom, have applied for U.S. licenses to resume exporting Venezuelan oil after their previous authorizations were suspended last year. The companies are seeking terms similar to past arrangements that allowed oil exports in exchange for supplying fuel to Venezuela under debt-recovery mechanisms. Washington has signaled a gradual easing of sanctions following the capture of President Nicolas Maduro, and has already granted limited authorizations to traders Vitol and Trafigura. Multiple U.S. oil companies, refiners and global trading houses have also applied for licenses, reflecting growing interest in Venezuelan supply.

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Gunvor Drives North Sea Crude Rally as Kazakh Supply Disruptions Tighten Europe

Gunvor has aggressively bought North Sea crude cargoes, snapping up five shipments in two days, as Europe faces a sharp supply squeeze caused mainly by disruptions to Kazakh exports from the Black Sea. Drone attacks, bad weather and maintenance have cut flows from the CPC terminal by nearly half, tightening the regional market despite expectations of a global oil surplus this year. Additional outages in Libya and repairs at Norway’s Johan Castberg field have compounded the shortage. As a result, premiums for key North Sea grades have risen by almost $1 a barrel in a week, Brent-linked derivatives have strengthened, and the forward curve has moved into deep backwardation, signalling tight near-term supply. The rally also reflects a broader quality split in the oil market, with light, low-sulfur crudes scarce in Europe while heavier sour grades remain plentiful elsewhere. Market participants expect conditions to ease once weather improves and Kazakh exports recover in February.

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OPEC Reclaims Ground in India as Russian Crude Imports Hit Two-Year Low

India’s imports of Russian crude fell sharply in December to their lowest level in two years as tighter U.S. and EU sanctions disrupted flows, pushing refiners to rely more on alternative suppliers and lifting OPEC’s share of India’s crude imports to an 11-month high. Russian shipments dropped about 22% month on month to 1.38m bpd, reducing Russia’s share to 27.4%, while OPEC’s share climbed to 53.2%, driven mainly by Middle Eastern supplies. Reliance Industries, India’s largest buyer of Russian oil, halted deliveries under its Rosneft deal in the final days of December, though state refiners continued sourcing from non-sanctioned sellers. Despite the decline, Russia remained India’s top oil supplier overall, and analysts see the pullback as a short-term disruption rather than a strategic shift away from Russian crude, even as New Delhi increases oversight of oil purchases amid ongoing Western pressure.

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Nayara Energy Remains Fully Reliant on Russian Crude as Sanctions Bite

India’s Nayara Energy continued to source all of its crude oil from Russia in December for the fifth consecutive month, importing about 371,000 bpd, down 2.2% from November, according to trade and industry data. The Rosneft-backed refiner has been unable to receive supplies from former partners Iraq’s SOMO and Saudi Aramco after European Union sanctions imposed in July triggered payment difficulties. Nayara operates a 400,000-bpd refinery at Vadinar in Gujarat, and the data underscores how sanctions have effectively narrowed its supply options to Russian barrels despite a slight month-on-month decline in volumes.

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John Fredriksen expands VLCC newbuilding push with fresh Hengli orders

Seatankers Management, controlled by John Fredriksen, has ordered two additional 306,000-dwt VLCC newbuildings at China’s Hengli Shipbuilding, with delivery scheduled for the second half of 2028. The contracts are valued at between $200m and $300m, according to a disclosure by Hengli parent Songfa Ceramics, and mark the yard’s first orders for 2026 delivery. With this deal, Seatankers is believed to have contracted 10 VLCCs at Hengli since September last year, including vessels thought to be resale newbuildings from the Hengli Group. The orders come alongside Frontline’s recent purchase of nine scrubber-fitted eco VLCC newbuilding contracts from Fredriksen’s private company for $1.224bn. Those vessels are split between Hengli and Dalian Shipbuilding, with deliveries running from late 2025 through mid-2027.

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Sinokor Maritime’s VLCC Buying Spree Signals Major Shift in Tanker Ownership

Sinokor Maritime is set to become the world’s largest VLCC owner if it completes reported purchases of about 30 vessels and additional time-charter deals, potentially lifting its VLCC exposure above 100 ships and giving it a 15%–20% share of the uncompromised spot fleet. The buying spree, estimated at more than $2bn, is widely viewed as a fundamental shift in VLCC ownership and has already driven ship values higher. Market sources increasingly believe Italian shipowner Gianluigi Aponte is partnering with Sinokor as a strategic and financial backer. Several owners, including Zodiac Maritime, Delta Tankers and International Seaways, are linked to sales, though some early deals are said to have failed and pricing details remain unclear. Concerns persist over execution risks, potential renegotiations, and Sinokor’s ability to manage a rapid influx of tonnage acquired largely on an “as is, where-is” basis.

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Greek Owners Secure Long-Term VLCC Charters as Market Strengthens

Greek shipowners have been actively locking in long-term period charters for VLCCs, mirroring strong activity by South Korea’s Sinokor Maritime in the tanker market. With both prompt and term markets gaining momentum, owners are taking advantage of improving conditions to secure stable earnings. Notable deals include Aramco Trading fixing Angelicoussis Group’s Maran Mars for three years and Mitsui OSK Lines reportedly chartering Navios Maritime Partners’ Nave Allegro for five years, while activity has also extended into the suezmax segment with long-term US charters. As VLCC spot rates have nearly doubled within a week, the gap between spot and period rates has narrowed, making long-term contracts more attractive. Market participants note that Sinokor has been exceptionally aggressive over the past three years, fixing or extending charters on numerous VLCCs, with its latest wave of acquisitions potentially marking its largest expansion yet.