Oil Settles at Seven-Week High on Iran Export Fears Despite Potential Venezuelan Supply

Oil prices climbed to seven-week highs on Monday as market participants grew concerned that ongoing unrest and a harsh crackdown in Iran could reduce crude exports from the OPEC producer, boosting supply risk sentiment. Brent crude settled at about $63.87 a barrel and WTI at around $59.50, each their strongest closes in weeks amid geopolitical uncertainty. While Iran’s leadership says it’s keeping channels open with the U.S. as Washington considers responses to the protests, traders are still wary that export disruption could tighten the market. At the same time, expectations that Venezuela could soon resume oil exports — including plans to send up to 50 million barrels of sanctioned crude to the U.S. — have tempered how far prices have risen. Investors are also watching broader potential supply risks from Russia and other producers, but oversupply concerns remain a counterweight to geopolitical fears.

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Trump Imposes 25% Tariff on Countries Doing Business With Iran to Ramp Up Pressure

US President Donald Trump ordered a 25% tariff on all US trade with any country that does business with Iran, escalating pressure on Tehran amid nationwide protests and ahead of a planned White House meeting on options ranging from cyber operations to military strikes. The move could hit China hardest, as Iran’s largest trading partner and the third-largest US trading partner, though the White House has not yet released detailed implementation plans. Trump said Iran was “starting to” cross US red lines and claimed Tehran had reached out for talks, while warning the US might act before any meeting takes place. Separately, Trump vowed to cut off Venezuelan oil exports to Cuba, declaring there would be “ZERO” oil or money flowing to Havana following the 3 January US military operation that removed Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro. Cuba’s reliance on Venezuelan crude has already fallen sharply—from 100,000 barrels per day agreed in 2000 to 15,000 bpd in 2025—with Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel rejecting negotiations outside migration talks.

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Oil Traders Rush for Upside Hedges as Iran Risk Reignites Volatility

Bullish oil option trading hit a record as traders rushed to hedge against a potential price spike amid escalating unrest in Iran and fears of supply disruption. Brent crude call option volume surged to an all-time high on Monday, with implied volatility and bullish premiums reaching their highest levels since U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran last June. Brent futures have risen over 6% since Wednesday as traders unwound bearish positions that had been based on expectations of early-year oversupply. Heavy call-spread buying has flipped the options market “skew” in favor of upside protection, a rare signal typically seen during periods of geopolitical stress. The shift has also left dealers short gamma, removing a key brake on volatility and amplifying price swings.

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Iran Shifts Oil Offshore as Protests Cut Onshore Inventories, Data Shows

Iran’s crude inventories at the key Kharg Island export terminal have fallen sharply amid nationwide protests, dropping about 22% below early-year levels, according to satellite-tracking firm Kayrros. The drawdown suggests Tehran is moving oil out of fixed storage to reduce exposure to potential unrest or military strikes, echoing similar behavior seen during last summer’s U.S. and Israeli tensions. While stocks at Kharg Island are lower, Iran’s total onshore inventories have largely recovered, and tankers have not dispersed as dramatically as in past crises. At the same time, oil stored at sea has surged to a record 166 million barrels, roughly 50 days of output The rise in floating storage reflects slower Chinese buying due to sanctions and quotas, and Iran’s strategy to push barrels farther from the Gulf, with about half now located near Singapore.

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Vitol and Trafigura Accelerate Venezuelan Oil Sales via Asia Talks and Caribbean Storage

Vitol and Trafigura have begun marketing Venezuelan crude to refiners in India and China for March delivery after securing U.S. approval to help sell up to 50 million barrels of stranded oil following the ouster of Nicolas Maduro. Vitol has offered cargoes to Indian state refiners at discounts of $8–$8.50 per barrel to Brent, while both traders have also approached PetroChina, a former major buyer of Venezuela’s Merey crude. In parallel, the traders are moving at least 4.8 million barrels this week to storage hubs in Curacao and the Bahamas, which together can store more than 24 million barrels, to stage onward exports to the U.S., Europe, or Asia. The oil is being sold at discounts such as $6.50 per barrel to Brent for U.S. Gulf Coast delivery, testing refiners’ appetite as markets face a looming supply glut.

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Vitol Set to Ship First US-Approved Naphtha Cargo to Venezuela

Commodities trader Vitol is expected to load its first oil cargo to Venezuela under a new US supply deal, chartering the 74,800-dwt LR1 tanker Hellespont Protector (built 2007) to export 460,000 barrels of naphtha from Houston, Texas. The vessel was reported to be seeking a weekend loading window, with delivery to Venezuela expected this week, though AIS data showed it still in Houston on Monday. The shipment follows a supply agreement announced last week by US President Donald Trump, aimed at reviving Venezuela’s oil sector after the capture of President Nicolas Maduro earlier in January. Naphtha is critical as a diluent for Venezuela’s heavy crude, and the deal comes as PDVSA looks to recover output after reductions caused by a prior US naval blockade.

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China-Bound Venezuelan Oil Shipments Stall as Sanctions Block Direct Exports

Two China-flagged supertankers heading to Venezuela to load debt-repayment crude reversed course and sailed back to Asia, signaling that direct Venezuelan oil exports to China remain unlikely despite a U.S. deal allowing up to 50 million barrels of stranded oil to be marketed. Although U.S. President Donald Trump said China would not be cut off from Venezuelan crude, Washington has maintained the oil embargo, and China has received no PDVSA cargoes since last month. China was Venezuela’s largest oil buyer last year, importing about 642,000 bpd, or roughly three-quarters of total exports of 847,000 bpd, though only a small share was used directly for debt repayment. The latest tanker U-turns highlight ongoing uncertainty over how, and when, Venezuelan oil might again flow directly to its main customer.

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Kazakhstan’s Black Sea Oil Exports Cut Sharply as CPC Port Disruptions Deepen

Kazakh crude shipments from the CPC terminal in the Black Sea have been cut again, with exports now seen at 800,000–900,000 barrels a day, about 45% below expectations set in mid-December. Bad weather, delayed maintenance and earlier drone damage have left only one mooring intermittently operational, forcing cargo cancellations and limiting Kazakhstan’s ability to export all the oil it produces. The disruption has tightened supply of CPC Blend, pushing its differentials into positive territory for the first time in over a year and boosting European crude premiums. The outage has also supported prompt Brent prices, even as broader market attention remains focused on Venezuela and Iran. Prolonged constraints risk curbing Kazakhstan’s output, since alternative export routes can handle only about half of its production.

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Sinokor VLCC Buying Spree Pushes Secondhand Tanker Values Sharply Higher

Brokers have raised secondhand tanker valuations across all segments after Sinokor Maritime moved to acquire up to 30 VLCCs at prices well above previous benchmarks. Recent deals imply values of about $101 million for a 10-year-old VLCC, prompting brokers to lift VLCC values by around 5% and revise suezmax, aframax and product tanker prices higher as well. Crude tanker equities jumped 16% last week, supported by a nearly 70% surge in VLCC spot rates from the Middle East to Asia and heightened geopolitical risk. Analysts say the transactions signal further upside potential for ship values, with resale benchmarks possibly resetting higher. A shift of Venezuelan crude into mainstream tanker trades could further support demand, particularly for aframax and suezmax vessels, with indirect benefits for VLCCs.