Oil Slips as Supply Surplus Fears Deepen, Venezuela Adds Pressure

Oil prices fell as investors focused on expectations of ample global supply outweighing uncertainty around Venezuelan output, with Brent settling at $60.70 a barrel and WTI at $57.13, before WTI slid further after President Donald Trump said Venezuela would send 30–50 million barrels of sanctioned oil to the U.S. Analysts said supply growth from OPEC and non-OPEC producers has outpaced demand, potentially leaving markets with a surplus of up to 3 million barrels per day in early 2026, keeping prices under pressure. While the U.S. capture of Nicolas Maduro and possible easing of sanctions could eventually lift Venezuelan production, analysts cautioned that near-term gains would be limited after years of underinvestment, even as Trump said proceeds from the oil sales would be managed by the U.S. government to benefit both countries.

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Trump Says Venezuela to Send Up to 50 Million Barrels of Oil to US

President Donald Trump said Venezuela would transfer between 30 million and 50 million barrels of sanctioned oil to the United States, to be sold at market prices with proceeds controlled by Washington and used to benefit both countries. At pre-blockade production rates, the volume equals roughly 30–50 days of Venezuela’s output and could be worth more than $2.8 billion at current WTI prices, while the US produces about 13.8 million bpd. Trump said the oil would be shipped via storage tankers directly to US unloading docks and that Energy Secretary Chris Wright had been instructed to execute the plan immediately. US officials did not provide further details. Despite holding vast oil reserves, Venezuela’s production has fallen sharply from 1970s highs due to long-term disrepair and reduced foreign investment.

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Chevron Becomes Sole Export Lifeline as Venezuela’s Dark Fleet Retreats

Chevron has lined up at least 11 chartered ships to load Venezuelan crude this month, emerging as the country’s only major oil exporter after the US naval blockade sidelined much of Venezuela’s “dark fleet.” The company is set to export about 152,000 bpd in January, up from roughly 123,000 bpd in December, with shipments headed to US refiners including Valero, Phillips 66 and Marathon Petroleum. Chevron operates under a US Treasury license and accounts for nearly a quarter of Venezuela’s oil production, even as multiple sanctioned tankers have been seized or turned away under heavy US military presence. The increased liftings are helping ease a domestic storage glut that could otherwise force PDVSA to shut in wells, with production at risk of falling to 600,000 bpd next month.

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Phillips 66 Sees Scope to Process Venezuelan Crude as U.S. Eyes Supply Boost

Phillips 66 said its Lake Charles and Sweeny refineries on the U.S. Gulf Coast can process a few hundred thousand barrels per day of Venezuelan crude as production increases. The comments come amid expectations that the Trump administration may ease access for U.S. oil companies after U.S. forces ousted President Nicolás Maduro. Venezuela holds the world’s largest oil reserves but produces only about 1.1 million bpd due to years of mismanagement, nationalization and sanctions. Phillips 66 executives said their refineries are well suited to handle Venezuela’s heavy sour crude, though realizing the country’s full production potential would take many years of investment. Analysts note U.S. Gulf Coast refiners such as Phillips 66, Valero and Marathon Petroleum stand to benefit most from increased Venezuelan supply.

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Trump’s Venezuela Move Revives Push for Canada-to-Asia Oil Pipeline

President Donald Trump’s push to unlock Venezuelan crude is strengthening political support in Canada for a new westbound pipeline that could ship up to 1 million bpd of oil to Asian markets, as Venezuelan heavy crude would compete directly with Canadian barrels in the US. Analysts warn that unsanctioned Venezuelan oil could reach the US Gulf Coast more cheaply than Canadian oil piped from Alberta, pressuring prices for Canada’s heavy crude. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith and Prime Minister Mark Carney argue recent events highlight the urgency of diversifying exports away from the US, which currently absorbs more than 4 million bpd of Canadian oil, about 70% of it to the Midwest. Canada’s only non-US outlet, the Trans Mountain pipeline, can carry about 900,000 bpd and sent roughly 64% of its volumes to China last year. With Venezuela producing about 1 million bpd and potentially doubling output over five years, economists say added pipeline capacity could help Canada defend prices and reduce vulnerability to future supply shocks.

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Middle East Crude Weakness Deepens Global Oversupply Concerns

The Middle Eastern oil market is showing clear signs of weakness, adding to concerns that global supply is outpacing demand and putting downward pressure on prices. Key indicators such as the widening Dubai–Brent spread, a return to contango, and sharply weaker spot differentials point to abundant regional supply. Oversupply has weighed heavily on prices, with Brent falling 18% last year and banks further cutting forecasts, while Saudi Aramco has lowered Asian selling prices to five-year lows. Ample Middle Eastern crude has eased fears that US actions in Venezuela will disrupt global flows, as Asian buyers have not rushed to seek alternatives. About 8 million barrels of February-loading crude remain unsold, an unusual backlog that underscores persistent softness in the physical market.

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Black Sea CPC Terminal Restarts Crude Shipments After Weather and Attack Disruptions

The Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal near Russia’s Novorossiysk port resumed crude loadings on January 5 after weather-related disruptions halted exports since December 29, according to industry sources. Loadings restarted from one single point mooring (SPM-1), while SPM-2 remains out of service following a Ukrainian drone attack on November 29 and maintenance on SPM-3 has been delayed until mid-January. The terminal handles about 80% of Kazakhstan’s crude exports, and disruptions contributed to lower Kazakh output and CPC Blend exports in December. A tanker, Atlantic M, loaded about 700,000 barrels on January 5. Despite recent delays that stalled CPC Blend trading, CPC is expected to export around 1.65 million bpd in January.

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India’s Fuel Consumption Hits Record High in December on Strong Demand

India’s fuel consumption rose to a record 21.75 million metric tons in December, up 5.3% year-on-year, marking the highest monthly level in data going back to 1998. Growth was driven by higher use of petrol, diesel and LPG, reflecting strong economic activity and transport demand. Diesel consumption increased 5% from a year earlier, while petrol sales jumped 7.1% and LPG demand surged 11.2%. India remains the world’s third-largest oil consumer and the biggest buyer of discounted Russian seaborne crude, though geopolitical pressure from the U.S. could complicate those purchases. Despite trade tensions, the December data highlight resilient domestic fuel demand across key sectors.

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Hengyi to Double Brunei Refinery Capacity by 2028, Heightening Asian Competition

China’s Hengyi Petrochemical will proceed with a long-planned expansion of its Pulau Muara Besar refinery and petrochemical complex in Brunei, aiming to complete the second phase by the end of 2028. The refinery started operations in late 2019, currently processes about 160,000 bpd of crude. The expansion will add 12 million tons per year of capacity, lower than the originally planned 14 million tons, lifting total capacity at the site to 20 million tons annually. The project, backed by tax incentives from Brunei and secured financing, will mainly produce diesel, paraxylene, benzene, polypropylene and other higher-value refined and chemical products. The move comes as global refining capacity is expected to rebound in 2026 after declining in 2025, with improved margins following closures in Europe and North America. However, Southeast Asian refiners continue to face pressure from rapid capacity growth in the region, driven largely by China.

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Denmark Pushes Shipping Expansion Amid Rising Greenland Geopolitical Tensions

Denmark is seeking to expand its merchant fleet as global attention intensifies over its control of Greenland and growing geopolitical pressures from the US. Danish Shipping has unveiled a new strategy aimed at ensuring the Danish-flagged fleet grows at least as fast as the global fleet, positioning shipping as a strategic national asset. The plan emphasizes resilience, supply security, and Denmark’s role in global and European security, while promoting a green transition through alternative fuels and new technologies. It also includes expanding the maritime workforce, increasing student enrollment in maritime education, and providing at least 400 internships annually by 2030. The initiative comes as shipping becomes more politicized, with President Donald Trump openly expressing interest in Greenland, underscoring the strategic importance of Denmark’s maritime sector.

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Dark Fleet Networks Sustain Iran’s Oil Exports Despite Sanctions

Around 600 tankers are estimated to be part of the dark fleet moving Iranian crude, oil products and LPG, supported by at least 16 shipping networks identified by Deep Blue Intelligence. Key players include Sahara Thunder (linked to Iran’s defence ministry and tied to 30–40 vessels), Triliance (connected to the IRGC and associated with over 100 ships), and Iranian businessman Hossein Shamkhani, whose network spans more than 80 vessels across multiple companies. A legacy Chinese-linked Kunlun network still accounts for about 25 ships, while smaller emerging networks continue to rotate vessels through shell companies. Despite sanctions, Iran consistently exports over 1 million bpd, with experts saying the dark fleet has become resilient and largely immune to enforcement, especially in Southeast Asian waters.