Oil Rises on China Growth Support Despite Ongoing Global Supply Glut

Crude oil prices edged higher as China pledged to expand fiscal spending in 2026, boosting expectations of stronger demand and helping commodities rally into year-end. Brent traded above $61 a barrel and WTI near $57, rising alongside assets such as silver. Gains came despite progress in US-led efforts to end the Russia–Ukraine war, with President Donald Trump citing major progress and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy saying a peace framework was 90% agreed, a development that could eventually ease curbs on Russian supply. Even so, oil remains on track for its fifth consecutive monthly decline in December, the longest losing streak in over two years. Prices continue to face pressure from concerns about a global supply glut driven by higher output from OPEC+ and non-OPEC producers.

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Putin and Trump Reject Temporary Ceasefire, Urge Ukraine Decision on Donbas

The Kremlin said Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump oppose a European-Ukrainian proposal for a temporary ceasefire, arguing it would only prolong the war and risk renewed fighting. In a 75-minute call held at Trump’s request ahead of his meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, both leaders shared the view that Kyiv must make a decisive move regarding Donbas. Russia, which controls about 90% of Donbas and roughly one-fifth of Ukraine overall, wants Ukrainian forces to withdraw from the remaining areas they hold. The conflict remains intense, with Russian forces advancing an estimated 12–17 square kilometers per day in 2025, raising concerns in Ukraine and Europe that Kyiv could be pressured into concessions. Trump reiterated his desire to end the war quickly while highlighting potential economic cooperation among the U.S., Russia and Ukraine if a settlement is reached.

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Ukraine Targets Russian Refineries, Says Syzran and Volgograd Facilities Hit

Ukraine said it struck Rosneft’s Syzran oil refinery in Russia’s Samara region overnight for the second time this month, causing a fire, though the extent of the damage is still being assessed. The refinery, located about 1,200 kilometers east of Kyiv, has a design capacity of roughly 170,000 bpd and was previously hit on Dec. 5, with Ukraine claiming it supplies fuel to Russia’s military. Kyiv also confirmed a strike over the Christmas weekend on Lukoil’s Volgograd refinery, one of Russia’s largest, saying an oil products pipeline and production machinery were damaged. In addition, Ukrainian forces said they struck multiple military targets in occupied Crimea as well as the Luhansk and Donetsk regions. These attacks followed a Russian drone and missile barrage on Kyiv that killed one person, injured dozens, and left thousands without power, water and heating during freezing conditions.