Oil Prices Edge Higher as Russia Sanctions and Venezuela Blockade Raise Supply Concerns

Oil prices settled slightly higher as markets weighed potential new U.S. sanctions on Russia and supply risks from a blockade of Venezuelan oil tankers. Brent crude rose 14 cents (0.2%) to $59.82 per barrel, while WTI gained 21 cents (0.4%) to $56.15. Analysts warned that stricter measures on Russian energy could pose a larger threat to supply than the Venezuela blockade, which could disrupt up to 600,000 bpd of exports, though 160,000 bpd to the U.S. are likely to continue. Venezuelan crude accounts for about 1% of global supply, and enforcement uncertainty remains despite recent U.S. tanker seizures and ongoing Chevron shipments. Meanwhile, Bank of America estimates that if WTI averages $57 per barrel in 2026, U.S. shale output could decline by 70,000 bpd.

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US Sanctions 29 Shadow Fleet Tankers in Fresh Crackdown on Iranian Oil Exports

The United States imposed sanctions on 29 oil tankers and their management firms on Thursday, targeting Iran’s so-called “shadow fleet” used to export sanctioned petroleum and petroleum products. The U.S. Treasury said the vessels and companies moved hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth of oil using deceptive shipping practices, including opaque ownership and sailing without top-tier insurance. The measures also target Egyptian businessman Hatem Elsaid Farid Ibrahim Sakr and multiple shipping companies linked to seven of the sanctioned vessels. The action comes amid heightened U.S.-Iran tensions following five rounds of indirect nuclear talks that collapsed into a 12-day air war in June, during which Israeli and U.S. forces struck Iranian nuclear sites.

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EU Blacklists 41 More Ships in Expanded Crackdown on Russia’s Shadow Oil Fleet

The European Union has sanctioned 41 additional ships linked to Russian oil trading networks, raising the bloc’s total designated vessels to nearly 600. The latest measures follow earlier sanctions on nine “shadow fleet enablers,” including oil trader Murtaza Lakhani, and three executives tied to the 2Rivers Group accused of helping Rosneft disguise oil origins. The newly blacklisted vessels include 36 tankers and five Russia-flagged bulk carriers, among them three product tankers previously sanctioned by the U.S. in April 2022. Separately, the UK imposed sanctions on 24 Russian-linked individuals and entities, including oil producers Tatneft, Russneft and NNK. Despite 19 rounds of EU sanctions, Russia continues exporting oil using non-Western-controlled tankers

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Global Crude Surplus Leaves West African Oil Searching for Buyers

West African crude sellers are struggling to place up to 26 cargoes loading in December and January as a global oil surplus intensifies competition from cheaper alternatives. Around 20 million barrels of Nigerian crude remain unsold, while Angola still has five to six cargoes available, contributing to an overhang that was estimated as high as 40 million barrels earlier this week. The surplus has pressured futures markets, pushing Brent crude below $60 per barrel, its lowest level since May. Analysts say Angolan January trade is running 20% behind its long-term average, as China shifts to cheaper or closer supplies, while Middle Eastern grades displace West African crude in Asia due to lower prices and shorter voyages. Additional pressure comes from India’s continued imports of Russian oil and reduced buying by Nigeria’s 650,000 bpd Dangote refinery, which is scheduled for maintenance in January.

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Saudi Crude Exports Surge to Multi-Year High as OPEC+ Cuts Ease

Saudi Arabia’s crude oil exports rose to 7.10 million bpd in October, the highest level in two and a half years and up from 6.46 million bpd in September, according to JODI data. Crude production also climbed to about 10.0 million bpd, its highest since April 2023, as eight OPEC+ members continued unwinding cuts, lifting output targets by 2.9 million bpd since April. Meanwhile, domestic refinery throughput fell 7.8% month-on-month to 2.71 million bpd, and direct crude burning declined by 92,000 bpd to 393,000 bpd, freeing more supply for exports. Rising output from producers such as the U.S. and Brazil has heightened concerns of a glut, with OPEC forecasting 2026 demand for OPEC+ crude at 43 million bpd, close to current production levels. Saudi exports to China are also expected to reach a three-month high in January after the kingdom cut official selling prices to Asia.

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Venezuela Sends Unsanctioned Oil Supertankers to China Despite U.S. Blockade Threat

Venezuela has authorized two VLCCs, each loaded with about 1.9 million barrels of Merey heavy crude, to depart for China, marking only the second and third supertankers to leave since the U.S. seized a Venezuelan oil tanker last week. The vessels are not on the U.S. sanctions list and are expected to sail with their tracking transponders switched off from the Jose export terminal, where many tankers have been stranded. Of the 75 “shadow fleet” tankers currently in Venezuela, about 38 are sanctioned by the U.S., with at least 15 already loaded. Venezuela’s crude exports have dropped sharply from over 900,000 bpd in November following the seizure, though Chevron continues shipments to the U.S. under a special authorization.

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US House Approves SPEED Act to Accelerate Energy Project Permits Amid Environmental Pushback

The U.S. House of Representatives passed the SPEED Act on Thursday to streamline environmental reviews and accelerate permitting for large energy infrastructure projects, data centers, and factories. The bill passed by a 221–196 vote, including support from 11 Democrats, and is aligned with President Donald Trump’s agenda to expand domestic energy and mining development. Energy industry groups hailed the measure as the first major reform of the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) since the Nixon era, arguing it will lower costs and speed approvals. However, the legislation lost backing from clean energy advocates after late amendments preserved the president’s authority to block permitted offshore wind projects, and environmental groups warned of risks to clean air and drinking water. The bill now faces resistance in the Democratic-controlled Senate, where lawmakers want permitting reforms to more clearly benefit clean energy and transmission projects.

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Hafnia Finalizes $311m Torm Stake as Merger Speculation Grows

BW Group tanker operator Hafnia confirmed it can complete its $311 million acquisition of a stake in Danish rival Torm after all deal conditions were met. Hafnia’s ownership will stand at 13.97%, slightly below the 14.45% initially expected, after Torm issued 3.38 million A shares since the deal was announced in September. The final hurdle was cleared with the appointment of veteran UK dealmaker Simon Mackenzie Smith as Torm’s chairman, replacing Chris Boehringer, while Oaktree Capital Management sells 14.1 million shares. Analysts at Fearnley Securities said the likelihood of a merger is “significant” and expect Hafnia to file a formal proposal in due course. Mackenzie Smith brings extensive M&A experience, having led Shell’s $65 billion acquisition of BG Group and advised on KKR’s $22 billion takeover of Alliance Boots.

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Dark Fleet Traffic on Northern Sea Route Surges, Raising Arctic Safety Alarms

Use of Russia’s Northern Sea Route by the “dark fleet” has surged sharply, with 100 sanctioned vessels—including 38 oil tankers and 13 LNG carriers—transiting the Arctic passage this year, up from just 13 in 2024, according to Bellona Environmental Transparency Center. Bellona warned the route has become an “illicit corridor,” noting that many vessels had low or no ice class, including 18 ships rated Ice 3 or below. Among the incidents cited was the 156,630-dwt suezmax Lynx (built 2011), which became stuck for several days in September en route from Murmansk to China without an icebreaker escort. An ice-class-less LNG carrier, the 138,000-cbm Arctic Metagaz (built 2003), was also stranded in ice in August and reportedly had to wait about a week for rescue. Bellona highlighted severe safety risks, pointing out that Russia has only 11 rescue centres along its northern coast—seven on the Northern Sea Route, with just one operating during winter—and lacks adequate Arctic oil-spill response capability.