Oil Slides as Oversupply and Peace Hopes Outweigh Venezuela Disruptions

Oil prices fell on Monday as concerns about global oversupply and the prospect of a Russia-Ukraine peace deal outweighed disruptions from escalating U.S.-Venezuelan tensions. Brent settled near $60.56 a barrel and WTI at $56.82, extending last week’s losses of more than 4% amid expectations of a surplus in 2026. While Venezuela’s exports have dropped sharply following a U.S. tanker seizure, fresh sanctions and a cyberattack on PDVSA, ample global supply and shipments already en route to China have cushioned the impact. Market sentiment was further pressured by progress in U.S.-Ukraine talks, raising the possibility of increased Russian oil supply if sanctions ease. Weak Chinese economic data and forecasts from major banks that supply will outpace demand through 2027 added to the downward pressure on prices.

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EU Blacklists 2Rivers Executives in Crackdown on Russia’s Shadow Oil Fleet

The European Union has sanctioned nine individuals and companies linked to alleged Russian oil trading, targeting key figures associated with 2Rivers Group, formerly known as Coral Energy. Among those blacklisted are CEO Talat Safarov, founder Etibar Eyyub and director Anar Madalti, accused of dealing with Rosneft and concealing the origin of Russian oil. The EU said 2Rivers controls a significant share of Russia’s “shadow fleet” and continues operating the same network despite changing its name and ownership. Additional sanctions were imposed on Rosneft-linked executives, shipping managers in the UAE, and firms in Vietnam and Russia connected to vessels already under sanctions. The move comes ahead of an EU meeting on sustaining support for Ukraine, as Western scrutiny of Russia’s oil trade intensifies amid ongoing peace talks.

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PDVSA Cyberattack and US Tensions Disrupt Venezuela’s Oil Exports as Tankers Turn Back

Venezuela’s state oil company PDVSA said it suffered a cyberattack, which it blamed on the United States, as tensions escalated following a U.S. seizure of a Venezuelan oil tanker. While PDVSA claimed operations were unaffected, sources said administrative systems remained down, cargo deliveries were suspended and workers reverted to manual record-keeping. The incident comes amid heightened U.S. military pressure and has already led to a sharp drop in Venezuelan oil exports, with more than 11 million barrels stuck on tankers in local waters. Several vessels, including at least four VLCCs scheduled to load crude and a tanker carrying Russian naphtha, have made U-turns, according to ship-tracking data. Only Chevron-chartered tankers continue to export Venezuelan oil to the U.S. under a special waiver, while some Asia-bound shipments depart in “dark mode” to avoid detection.

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China Largely Insulated from Venezuela Oil Disruption as Supplies Remain Plentiful

China’s oil market is expected to feel little immediate impact from the U.S. seizure of a Venezuelan tanker, as large volumes of Venezuelan crude are already en route and overall supply remains ample. Venezuelan oil accounts for only about 4% of China’s crude imports, and shipments are set to rise in December and January due to accelerated exports ahead of sanctions and deep discounts. Additional inflows from Russia and Iran have swollen floating storage in Asia, further easing near-term supply concerns and pressuring prices. Analysts expect any meaningful impact from the seizure or further sanctions to emerge around February, once current cargoes are absorbed. However, a small group of independent “teapot” refiners that rely on Venezuela’s heavy Merey crude could face higher costs and limited alternatives if disruptions persist.

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China Issues Navigation Alert After VLCC Loses Control in South China Sea

China’s Sansha Maritime Safety Administration has warned mariners about a VLCC reported as “not under command” in the South China Sea. The vessel involved is the Djibouti-flagged, 319,000-dwt tanker Njord (built 2003), which was drifting near 16°40.24′N 113°41.14′E on Sunday morning. The authority advised passing ships to maintain a sharp lookout and navigate with caution, though no reason was given for the loss of control. S&P Global data shows the tanker has been managed by Pakistan-based Maritime Synergy Management since March 2025, with ownership resting with Seychelles-based Trident Prosperity. The Njord, whose current P&I cover is listed as unknown, was reportedly on a voyage from Indonesia’s Nipa Anchorage to Yantai, China.

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Thailand Halts Fuel Transit via Laos as Fighting With Cambodia Escalates

Thailand has halted fuel shipments through its Chong Mek border crossing with Laos after intelligence suggested the supplies were being diverted to Cambodian forces amid an escalating border conflict. Fighting between Thai and Cambodian troops has spread across multiple points along their 817-km frontier, displacing over half a million people and killing at least 38 in the past eight days, despite international ceasefire efforts. Thailand stressed the fuel restriction is not intended to harm Laos, while also considering limits on Thai vessels entering high-risk Cambodian waters. Cambodia relies mainly on seaborne fuel imports, with Singapore as its largest supplier, while shipments from Thailand have sharply declined and stopped entirely since July. Both sides accuse each other of escalating hostilities, including drone attacks, artillery fire and airstrikes, as diplomatic efforts to halt the conflict remain stalled.

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Kazakhstan Fast-Tracks CPC Black Sea Mooring Replacement After Drone Damage

Kazakhstan said the delivery of two new mooring points to replace damaged and aging equipment at the CPC Black Sea terminal has been moved forward to January from April. CPC exports were curtailed after a Ukrainian drone strike on November 29 damaged one of the terminal’s three single-point moorings, forcing Kazakhstan to divert some oil exports to alternative routes, including China. The CPC pipeline, which carries about 80% of Kazakhstan’s oil exports, represents roughly 1% of global crude supply. Repair efforts are being complicated by strong winds and internal currents, delaying the return of another mooring currently under maintenance. Kazakhstan has also signaled it may lower its 2026 oil production plans due to maintenance at major fields and the impact of the attack.

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India Tightens Sanctions Compliance, Russian Oil Imports Set to Fall Sharply

Indian officials said Russia’s oil exports to India are expected to drop to about 800,000 barrels per day this month as authorities tighten checks to ensure compliance with Western sanctions. The decline follows heightened scrutiny at ports and by banks, compared with roughly 1.9 million bpd imported in November, amid New Delhi’s efforts to secure a broader trade deal with the United States. Stricter oversight includes increased inspections of “shadow fleet” tankers, with authorities demanding detailed documentation such as certificates of origin and flag registry data. While most Indian refiners have reduced purchases of Russian crude, Rosneft-backed Nayara Energy has increased imports due to its reliance on Moscow for feedstock under EU sanctions. Indian refiners are now turning to non-sanctioned Russian suppliers or more expensive alternatives as Washington’s October sanctions on major Russian oil firms reshape trade flows.

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Odfjell Launches Self-Financed Green Corridor with Petrobras Biofuel Deal

Norway-listed chemical tanker owner Odfjell has signed a one-year biofuel offtake agreement with Petrobras to establish its own green shipping corridor between Brazil and Europe. Under the deal, Odfjell will use a B24 fuel blend—24% biofuel and 76% conventional diesel—on all Brazil–Europe voyages, supplied at Rio Grande for around 15 sailings in 2026. The company will absorb the additional fuel cost, estimated at about $1 million annually, without passing it on to customers and without government subsidies. CEO Harald Fotland said the move reflects a pragmatic approach to decarbonisation amid limited fuel availability and weak customer willingness to pay green premiums. The corridor links Brazil with Antwerp and Rotterdam and is described by Odfjell as the first deep-sea green corridor of its kind. Management expects the agreement to stimulate Brazil’s biofuel supply and reduce risk for other shipowners considering similar transitions.