Oil Prices Climb as OPEC+ Maintains Output and Market Weighs Geopolitical Risks

Oil prices rose more than 1.5% after OPEC+ reaffirmed plans to keep production unchanged through the first quarter of 2026 instead of implementing previously planned output increases. Brent crude moved above $63 and WTI approached $60 as the group cited weak seasonal demand and concerns about an expanding global supply glut. The rally came even as oil posted a fourth straight monthly decline in November, pressured by forecasts from the IEA and JPMorgan predicting a significant surplus and potential price drops toward $50. Market sentiment was further influenced by geopolitical tensions after Donald Trump issued — and later softened — warnings about Venezuelan airspace, while U.S. military activity in the region added uncertainty. Trading volume for WTI was strong in early Asian hours following a major outage at the CME trading platform that disrupted markets late last week.

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OPEC+ Freezes Output for Early 2026 and Approves New Capacity Review Framework

OPEC+ agreed to keep oil production levels unchanged through the first quarter of 2026 as the group slows its push to recover market share amid concerns about a growing supply glut and Brent trading near $63. Despite adding nearly 3 million bpd back to the market since April 2025, the alliance still maintains about 3.24 million bpd of cuts, which were left untouched. The group also approved a long-awaited mechanism to reassess members’ maximum production capacities, which will help shape new output baselines and quotas from 2027. Capacity audits will take place between January and September 2026, with most countries assessed by one firm, while sanctioned members like Russia, Iran and Venezuela will be evaluated separately or by using average production figures. The review remains politically sensitive, as producers with rising capacity — such as the UAE and Iraq — seek higher quotas, while others facing declining output resist cuts, an issue that previously prompted Angola’s exit from the group.

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Caspian Pipeline Halts Black Sea Loading After Drone Boat Attack

The Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) suspended crude loading after one of its Black Sea moorings was heavily damaged in an overnight attack by unmanned boats, prompting the withdrawal of all tankers from the terminal. Kazakhstan activated emergency plans to reroute exports and maintain production, while the CPC confirmed no injuries or oil spills occurred. The facility, vital for Kazakhstan’s largest fields and some Russian volumes, has been repeatedly targeted this month. Meanwhile, Ukraine also struck the Afipsky oil refinery in Russia’s Krasnodar region and other military-related oil infrastructure, citing its role in supplying Russian forces. The CPC, owned by Chevron, ExxonMobil, KazMunayGas, and Transneft, stressed that attacks on civilian energy infrastructure threaten global energy security and consortium interests.

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Ukrainian Sea Drones Target Russian-Linked Tankers and Black Sea Terminal

Over the weekend, Ukrainian sea drones struck multiple Russian-linked tankers and a Black Sea port terminal, causing damage but no casualties. The 115,600-dwt Virat tanker and 150,000-dwt Kairos were both hit near Turkey’s coast; the Virat sustained minor damage while the Kairos caught fire but was extinguished by Turkish firefighting vessels. Separately, a remote mooring device at the Novorossiysk terminal operated by the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) was heavily damaged, halting oil loadings and prompting Kazakhstan to explore alternative export routes. Both tankers were in ballast, posing no major environmental risk, and crews remained safe. The strikes underscore Ukraine’s ongoing targeting of Russian-related maritime infrastructure, while Russia condemned the attacks as obstructing international peace efforts.

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Rosneft’s 9-Month Net Income Plunges 70% Amid Low Prices and Security Costs

Russia’s largest oil producer, Rosneft, reported a 70% year-on-year drop in net income for January–September, falling to 277 billion roubles ($3.57 billion) due to lower oil prices, higher interest rates, and a stronger rouble. Revenue for the period declined 17.8% to 6.29 trillion roubles, while EBITDA fell 29.3% to 1.6 trillion roubles. The company cited additional pressures from increased spending on “anti-terror security” amid Ukraine’s drone attacks on Russian energy infrastructure. Gazprom Neft, in contrast, posted a 47% rise in third-quarter net profit to 69.1 billion roubles ($886 million), aided by lower taxes. Overall, Russian oil majors continue to face mixed results, with external factors and market volatility impacting profitability.

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Putin Approves Law to Boost Domestic Gasoline Supply via Belarus Refineries

Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a law designed to increase domestic gasoline supplies amid fuel shortages caused by Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries. The law allows Russian companies to benefit from a reverse excise tax on oil processed abroad under tolling agreements, including at Belarusian refineries. Under existing arrangements, Russian crude refined in Belarus remains the property of Russian firms and is primarily supplied to Russia’s domestic market. Earlier, Russia had already imposed a partial diesel export ban and extended a gasoline export ban until year-end to stabilize local fuel availability. The measure aims to ensure continued domestic gasoline supply despite disruptions from geopolitical tensions and refinery attacks.

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U.S. Oil Production Hits Record 13.84 Million bpd in September Amid Oversupply Concerns

U.S. crude oil production reached a record 13.84 million barrels per day in September, according to EIA data, despite ongoing oversupply worries and weak prices. Output in New Mexico rose to a record 2.351 million bpd, while the federal offshore Gulf of Mexico saw production climb to 1.983 million bpd, the highest since February 2020. Growth in the future is expected to be concentrated in the Gulf as onshore fields approach peak output. Benchmark Brent crude was trading just below $64 per barrel, about 14% lower than a year ago, reflecting the impact of high U.S. production on global markets. Meanwhile, U.S. natural gas production slightly declined to 122.17 billion cubic feet per day in September, with Texas seeing a minor decrease of 0.63%.

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Saudi Arabia Set to Cut January Crude Prices to Asia to Five-Year Low

Saudi Arabia is expected to lower its January official selling price (OSP) for crude to Asian buyers for the second consecutive month, reaching its lowest level since January 2021. Arab Light crude could fall by 30–40 cents a barrel to a 60–70 cent premium over the Oman/Dubai benchmark, while other grades such as Arab Extra Light, Medium, and Heavy are also expected to see declines of 30–50 cents. The price cuts reflect ample global supply, slower demand growth, and rising output from OPEC+ countries, which have increased targets by around 2.9 million bpd from April to December. Additional unexpected supplies, including 3.9 million barrels offered by Kuwait Petroleum, have also contributed to the downward pressure. Analysts noted that the reductions could stimulate term demand from China, where independent refiners recently received their 2026 import quotas.

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Cosco Shipping Energy Sells Older VLCC as Fleet Renewal Accelerates with New Dual-Fuel Tankers

China’s Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation (CSET) sold its 299,100-dwt VLCC Cosgrand Lake, built in 2006, for $35 million, close to market value ahead of its fourth special survey. Another older VLCC, Cosgrace Lake, is also considered a potential sale once its current three-month charter to ExxonMobil concludes. The sale is part of a broader strategy by CSET’s subsidiary, Pan Cosmos, to modernize its fleet, which includes the oldest tankers dating back to 2006. Pan Cosmos has leased six new methanol and LNG dual-fuel VLCCs from Hainan Cosco Shipping Development, valued at $112.6 million each, with deliveries scheduled between April 2027 and November 2028. The newbuilds, on 20-year contracts with fixed or profit-sharing rates, aim to optimize VLCC capacity and align with China’s energy transport security strategy.

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Nordic American Tankers Sees Surge in Suezmax Demand as Spot Rates Near $100,000/Day

Nordic American Tankers (NAT) reported a $2.8 million net loss in Q3 2025, down from an $8.7 million profit a year earlier, with revenue declining to $45.7 million from $52 million. Despite a weak third quarter, demand for oil and charter rates remained strong, with the fleet’s average time-charter equivalent rising slightly to $27,490 per day. NAT operates 16 of its 20 suezmaxes in the spot market, where modern vessels recently approached rates of $100,000 per day. The company maintains a strong cash position of over $70 million and adjusted EBITDA of $21.4 million, reflecting improved market positioning as certain fleets have been removed from the market. NAT also ordered two new suezmaxes in South Korea for 2028 delivery, signaling confidence in continued market strength.