Oil Prices Edge Higher Amid Thin Holiday Trading and Ukraine Peace Talks

Oil prices inched higher on thin U.S. Thanksgiving trading, with Brent settling at $63.34 per barrel and WTI at $59.10, as markets balanced optimism and skepticism surrounding renewed U.S.–Ukraine peace efforts. Hopes for a ceasefire—despite Kyiv’s reluctance to accept terms favoring Russia—helped offset supply concerns from fresh U.S. sanctions on Russian producers. OPEC+ is expected to keep output levels unchanged and maintain its pause on production hikes into early 2026, while also discussing a framework to assess members’ maximum capacity. Expectations of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut in December further supported prices, although analysts say WTI will likely remain range-bound between $56.80 and $60.40 through year-end due to subdued liquidity and limited new drivers.

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OPEC+ Poised to Keep Q1 Output Policy Steady as Group Nears Deal on Capacity Mechanism

OPEC+ is expected to maintain its current oil output policy for the first quarter of 2026 and agree on a long-discussed mechanism to assess members’ maximum production capacity, according to delegates familiar with the talks. The eight OPEC+ countries that began gradually raising output in 2025 are set to uphold their pause on additional increases next quarter, while the broader group plans to adopt a capacity assessment that will form the basis for 2027 output baselines. Ministers will hold four online meetings on Sunday to address the issue, which has been contentious in past negotiations and even contributed to Angola’s 2024 exit from the alliance. Despite years of coordinated supply cuts — which peaked at nearly 5.85 million bpd — the eight core producers have increased targets by 2.9 million bpd since April to regain market share. No changes are expected to wider 2026 group production targets, which include a 2 million bpd cut that remains in place through next year.

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Rocket Attack Shuts Iraq’s Khor Mor Gas Field, Triggering Major Power Cuts

A rocket attack struck a storage tank at Iraq’s Khor Mor gas field—one of Kurdistan’s largest—forcing production to shut and causing widespread power outages, though no casualties were reported. The strike, the most serious since drone attacks in July that cut regional oil output by about 150,000 bpd, did not affect oil production or exports but halted gas supplies crucial for electricity generation. Kurdistan officials again pointed to Iran-backed militias acting against U.S. interests, while Washington has not yet approved the KRG’s requests for anti-drone defenses. The outage is expected to cut 3,000 megawatts from regional power supply, and both Baghdad and Erbil agreed to form a joint investigative committee. The damaged tank was part of U.S.-financed expansion facilities under the KM250 project, which recently boosted the field’s capacity by 50%, and Dana Gas shares fell 1.5% following the incident.

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UK Pushes Back Lukoil Sanctions to February Amid Global Caution on Russian Energy

The UK has postponed sanctions on Lukoil International GmbH and its subsidiaries until Feb.26, delaying measures that were originally set to take effect on Nov.28 as Western governments continue to move cautiously against major Russian energy firms. This follows similar U.S. sanctions on Lukoil and Rosneft in October, some of which have also been deferred. Lukoil has already dissolved the board of its international division in response to mounting pressure, highlighting strain on its global operations. The UK licence allows limited payments and transactions to continue under strict conditions, including that any funds owed to Lukoil must remain frozen.

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China Issues First 2026 Crude Import Quotas for Independent Refiners

China has released the first batch of 2026 crude oil import quotas for independent refiners, allowing cargoes to arrive by year-end and supporting crude imports amid a supply glut. So far, about 8 million tons have been allocated to 21 refiners, up from 6.04 million tons in November 2024, with Hengli Petrochemical receiving the largest share of 2 million tons. Other recipients include Rongsheng, Shenghong, and Hongrun Petrochemical with smaller quotas. The quota issuance is expected to support prompt cargoes from Iran, Venezuela, and Russia while helping reduce floating storage. Despite this, lingering oversupply concerns and uncertainties over U.S. sanctions are likely to keep downward pressure on Middle East crude prices.

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Canada–Alberta Pact Scales Back Climate Rules to Boost Energy Sector

Canada’s federal government reached a deal with Alberta to scrap a planned emissions cap and relax clean-electricity rules in order to spur investment in oil and gas production. In return, Alberta agreed to strengthen industrial carbon pricing and support the large Pathways Plus carbon-capture project. The agreement also aims to revive prospects for a new privately funded pipeline to British Columbia’s northwest coast to expand access to Asian markets, requiring amendments to tanker-ban legislation. The move sparked political backlash, including the resignation of former environment minister Steven Guilbeault and strong criticism from environmental groups, though industry leaders praised the shift. Prime Minister Mark Carney framed the deal as essential to offset economic losses from U.S. tariffs while still maintaining a long-term net-zero goal.

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Venezuelan Refinery Citgo Sold to Elliott Affiliate for $5.9 Billion

Venezuelan-owned U.S. refiner Citgo has been sold for $5.9 billion to an Elliott Investment Management affiliate, Amber Energy, following court approval by Delaware judge Leonard Stark. The sale, part of PDV Holding’s bankruptcy process, aims to pay creditors of Venezuela’s PDVSA, including $2.1 billion to holders of a defaulted Venezuelan bond backed by Citgo equity. The court ruled Elliott’s bid offered the “best combination of price and certainty,” overturning a previous recommendation for Gold Reserve’s $7.38 billion offer, which criticized conflicts of interest in the process. Citgo, with an 807,000-bpd network, had cut ties with PDVSA in 2019 due to U.S. sanctions and now sources crude independently. The refinery’s profits fell sharply to $305 million last year from $2 billion in 2023, and its previous valuation ranged between $11 billion and $13 billion.

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Mercuria, Vitol Among Finalists for Raizen’s Argentine Refinery and Gas Stations

Mercuria Energy Group and Vitol Group are among the finalists bidding for Raizen SA’s Dock Sud refinery in Buenos Aires and its network of roughly 700 gas stations, valued between $1 billion and $1.6 billion. The sale comes as Argentina’s President Javier Milei accelerates deregulation in the energy sector, while Raizen faces mounting debt from underperforming biofuel investments and falling sugar prices. The Dock Sud refinery, Argentina’s third-largest, processes 101,000 bpd and the gas stations account for nearly 19% of local gasoline and diesel sales. Mercuria, which already has upstream operations in Argentina, and Vitol, which owns a nearby fuel port, are expanding into refining to capture downstream profits. The divestment is part of Raizen’s strategy to reduce debt after Moody’s downgraded its credit rating.

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CMB.Tech Cashes In on Older VLCCs as Ship Prices Soar

CMB.Tech CEO Alexander Saverys signaled the company is likely to continue selling older vessels, citing attractive secondhand VLCC and capesize prices amid strong market rates. In the third quarter, the firm sold the 306,543-dwt VLCC Dalma (2007) for a $26.7 million gain and the 169,390-dwt capesize Battersea (2009) for $2.4 million, while newbuildings were delivered. Recent VLCC sales, including Mermaid Hope and Mercury Hope (2011) at $60 million each, set new benchmarks in a market where demand outpaces supply. Saverys emphasized that while the company remains opportunistic on newbuildings, current prices are high, and they will only invest if value creation aligns with their balance sheet. The strategy balances enjoying spot market earnings, opportunistic long-term charters, and maintaining a modern, efficient fleet profile.