Oil Prices Rebound Slightly as Markets Weigh Supply Glut and Uncertain Russia-Ukraine Peace Talks

Oil prices edged higher on Wednesday, with Brent settling at $63.13 (+$0.65, +1.04%) and WTI at $58.65 (+$0.70, +1.21%), as traders balanced rising oversupply risks with uncertainty over Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations. U.S. crude inventories rose by 2.8 million barrels to 426.9 million, far exceeding forecasts, while the U.S. oil rig count fell by 12 to 407, the lowest since 2021. Analysts warned that the market is “on the road to a healthy supply glut,” although expectations of a potential U.S. Fed rate cut in December provided some support. Peace-deal optimism had pushed oil to one-month lows, but analysts noted that reaching a comprehensive agreement remains difficult despite U.S.-led diplomatic efforts, with Zelenskiy possibly traveling to the U.S. to finalize terms. Meanwhile, the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, which handles about 1.5% of global oil, resumed loadings after a temporary halt caused by a Ukrainian drone attack.

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Drone Strike Forces Shutdown of Iraq’s Khor Mor Gas Field, Halting Power Supplies Across Kurdistan

A drone attack on the Khor Mor gas field in Iraqi Kurdistan—one of the region’s largest—forced a full suspension of operations and halted all gas supplies to local power stations after the strike hit storage tanks, ignited a fire, and injured several workers. Field staff took shelter amid fears of additional attacks, while video footage showed thick smoke rising from the site. Teams from the Natural Resources and Electricity ministries, along with UAE-based Dana Gas, are investigating the incident. The perpetrator remains unknown, and the strike marks the second drone threat in recent days, following Kurdish security forces shooting down a drone approaching the facility on Sunday.

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Russian Oil Delivery to India Delayed as Tighter Port Insurance Checks Snag Sanctioned Vessel

A Russian oil shipment aboard the EU- and UK-sanctioned Aframax vessel Tiger 6 faced delays in discharging ESPO crude at India’s Paradip port after online verification of insurance coverage from Russia’s Soglasie Insurance stalled. India tightened port insurance rules earlier this year, requiring real-time verification for ships insured by non-International Group (non-IG) providers—many of which belong to the shadow fleet moving Russian oil. The Tiger 6, scheduled to discharge on Nov. 23, remained offshore on Wednesday before beginning the berthing process, signaling stricter enforcement by Indian authorities. Since April, India has required digital verification to prevent forged insurance documents, affecting older or high-risk vessels carrying Russian crude. India currently recognizes P&I coverage from 19 non-IG insurers, including eight Russian firms, enabling continued imports of discounted Russian oil despite Western sanctions.

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Dangote Targets World’s Largest Refinery Status with 1.4m bpd Expansion, Reshaping Global Tanker Trades

Nigeria’s Dangote Group plans to double the capacity of its massive Lagos refinery from 700,000 bpd to 1.4 million bpd by 2028 through a new deal with Honeywell, positioning it to surpass India’s 1.24m bpd Jamnagar as the world’s largest single-site refinery. The $20 billion facility has already transformed Atlantic basin tanker flows, with VLCC crude imports rising to 434,000 bpd in 2025 — up from 179,000 bpd in 2022–23 — while Nigeria’s clean product imports have plunged 39% year-on-year to 230,000 bpd in 2025. Expanded capacity will let Dangote process nearly all of Nigeria’s 1.5m bpd crude production, potentially reducing crude imports and impacting suezmax trades. The company also plans to boost polypropylene output to 2.4 million tonnes/year, while some refined products have already begun reaching export markets such as Asia.

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UK Softens Stance on Oil & Gas Licences but Keeps Windfall Tax Through 2030

Britain will allow new oil and gas licences that tie into existing North Sea fields and infrastructure, partially easing its previous pledge to halt new approvals, but the government disappointed producers by keeping the windfall tax in place until 2030. While UK output has fallen from 4.4 million boed in 2000 to about 1 million boed today — with a decline below 150,000 boed expected by 2050 — the Labour government maintained its strict tax regime, leaving the overall burden at 78% when prices exceed thresholds. Industry groups warned that investment risks stalling without reform, while environmental groups welcomed the curb on new exploration but urged greater support for workers transitioning to renewables. The Energy Profits Levy will be replaced in 2030 by a 35% Oil and Gas Price Mechanism triggered if prices stay above set levels.

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HD Hyundai and Lotte Launch First Major Petrochem Consolidation

Lotte Chemical and HD Hyundai Chemical will merge parts of their naphtha-cracking operations at the Daesan complex, marking South Korea’s first major petrochemical consolidation under a government-driven reform plan aimed at tackling severe oversupply and shrinking margins. The move will combine Lotte’s 1.1-million-ton unit with Hyundai’s 850,000-ton unit as the industry struggles to compete with large, integrated Chinese complexes. The government has pushed for capacity cuts and restructuring after weak financials at major operators — including Yeochun NCC’s near default — highlighted structural vulnerabilities in one of Korea’s key export sectors. The Lotte–Hyundai deal signals a shift from short-term cost-cutting to deeper structural reform, potentially paving the way for further consolidation across facilities such as the Yeosu complex, as officials and credit analysts warn the industry faces continued pressure heading into 2026.

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CMB.Tech Stays the Course on Ammonia and Hydrogen Vessels Despite IMO Net-Zero Delay

CMB.Tech CEO Alexander Saverys said the company’s green-fuels strategy remains unaffected by the one-year delay to the IMO’s Net-Zero Framework, emphasising that its investments in ammonia-ready and hydrogen-powered vessels were never dependent on IMO rules taking effect in 2028. While acknowledging the IMO decision would have accelerated its business, Saverys said CMB.Tech is instead relying on like-minded charterers and strong EU legislation to support adoption of dual-fuel technologies. He highlighted growing bilateral discussions on decarbonising specific trade lanes and pointed to major advances in China and India that have sharply increased green ammonia availability and reduced costs over the past 12 months. Saverys reaffirmed that ammonia remains the company’s preferred pathway to decarbonisation and noted that CMB.Tech is not pursuing LNG-fuelled newbuilds. Although some potential charterers have shifted to a “wait-and-see” stance following the IMO delay, others continue to express interest in advanced zero-carbon vessels.