Oil Falls to One-Month Low as U.S. Pushes Russia-Ukraine Peace Plan

Oil prices dropped about 1% on Friday, with Brent settling at $62.56 and WTI at $58.06, marking their lowest levels since October 21. Market sentiment weakened as the U.S. pressed for a Russia-Ukraine peace deal that could restore more Russian oil to global markets just as sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil came into effect. Analysts said the potential peace talks eased fears of near-term supply disruptions, although both Kyiv and Moscow signaled that an agreement remains uncertain. A stronger U.S. dollar and mixed signals from Federal Reserve officials about future interest rate cuts further weighed on crude demand outlook. U.S. factory activity also slowed in November due to tariff-driven cost pressures, contributing to softer expectations for oil consumption.

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US-Backed Peace Plan Suggests Gradual Russian Reintegration as Tanker Markets Surge

A US-brokered 28-point peace plan proposes that Russia be reintegrated into the global economy, with sanctions relief considered on a “case-by-case basis,” while Ukraine would cede Crimea, Luhansk, Donetsk, and parts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, and forgo NATO membership. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has indicated willingness to engage constructively, but the plan remains in flux ahead of the US Thanksgiving holiday. Tanker markets have surged, with the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index rising 17 points to 1,443, VLCC time charter rates climbing to $112,789/day, suezmaxes at $93,138/day, and aframaxes at $56,133/day—all year-to-date highs. Analysts attribute the strong market mainly to global exports above 50m barrels/day, driven by OPEC’s production reversals and Atlantic oil growth, although sanctions also contributed. Despite some concerns about a supply glut, Arctic Securities notes that demand is robust, prices remain in the mid-$60s, and rising refining margins will help clear inventories.

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India’s Shift from Russian Crude to Boosts Global Tanker Demand

India’s decision to avoid Russian crude, following US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, is set to increase tanker demand and push freight rates even higher, especially for VLCCs and suezmaxes. October saw more than 90 million barrels of floating crude stockpile, tightening available tanker tonnage, while longer-haul shipments from the US, Iraq, and UAE are expected to replace shorter Russia-India voyages. India imported 66.9m tonnes of Russian crude from January to October 2025, with Saudi Arabia and the US poised to fill the gap, opening cargoes to legally trading vessels and reducing demand for the sanctioned “dark fleet.” Reliance Industries, India’s largest Russian crude buyer, will stop imports from 20 November and switch entirely to non-Russian crude from 1 December. Analysts predict the combination of longer voyages, reduced vessel availability, refinery outages, and high refining margins in Europe and Asia will collectively strengthen tanker earnings.

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Abu Dhabi’s IHC Enters Bid for Lukoil’s Sanction-Hit Global Assets

Abu Dhabi’s International Holding Company (IHC) has notified the U.S. Treasury of its interest in acquiring Lukoil’s foreign assets, which have been forced onto the market after U.S. sanctions. IHC joins major potential buyers including ExxonMobil, Chevron, and Carlyle, with all bidders required to secure U.S. approval before the December 13 deadline. Lukoil’s global portfolio—representing about 0.5% of world oil production—includes three European refineries, oilfield stakes across Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Iraq, Mexico, Ghana, Egypt, UAE, Nigeria, and hundreds of retail fuel stations worldwide. IHC, chaired by Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan, is capable of deploying $30–35 billion over the next 18 months to fund investments through a mix of debt and equity. The move comes as Washington tightens sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil firms, Rosneft and Lukoil, to pressure Moscow over the war in Ukraine.

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Japan Moves Toward Restarting World’s Largest Nuclear Plant as Energy Demands Surge

Niigata Governor Hideyo Hanazumi approved the partial restart of the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa nuclear plant, the world’s largest, clearing the final major obstacle for TEPCO to revive Reactors 6 and 7, which together have 2,710 MW of capacity. Governor Hanazumi emphasized growing electricity needs from data centers and semiconductor expansion, noting it is difficult to halt reactors that passed national safety standards. A restart—TEPCO’s first since Fukushima 2011—would boost Tokyo-area supply by 2% from Unit 6 alone and help Japan reduce reliance on fossil fuel imports, which currently account for 60–70% of its electricity generation. Japan spent 10.7 trillion yen ($68 billion) last year on LNG and coal imports, and analysts expect LNG demand could fall by 4 million tons in 2026 if Unit 6 comes online. The decision comes as Japan has restarted 14 of 33 operable reactors since Fukushima, though public opinion in Niigata remains sharply divided.

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Greek Tanker Manager Altomare Protests US Sanctions Over Iranian Oil

Greek shipping firm Altomare, manager of the 317,400-dwt VLCC Kallista, expressed “profound surprise and disappointment” after being sanctioned by the US for allegedly transporting nearly 4 million barrels of Iranian oil. The company denied the allegations, stating the vessel was chartered by reputable clients and operating between Basrah, Iraq, and Paradip, India, with no activities violating US sanctions. Altomare is controlled by Dimitris Bakos and John Kaimenakis, who were not personally blacklisted, and the firm is actively cooperating to remove itself from the sanctions register. The US sanctions are part of a broader “maximum pressure” campaign targeting Iran’s nuclear program and foreign policy. Despite the sanctions, Iranian oil exports reached a five-year high of over 2.5 million bpd in September, with Iran reporting no current issues in sales.

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China’s Spike in “Indonesian” Oil Imports Signals Rebranded Iranian Crude

China’s crude imports labeled as originating from Indonesia have surged from under 100,000 tons in early 2024 to 9.81 million tons (235,570 bpd) through October, a volume far exceeding Indonesia’s official exports of 1.7 million tons, of which only 25,000 tons went to China. Traders say the drastic mismatch indicates that sanctioned Iranian crude is being rebranded as Indonesian, following tighter scrutiny of Malaysian-labeled cargoes by banks and authorities. China’s imports from Malaysia, traditionally the largest trans-shipment hub for Iranian oil, have fallen almost 50% since July from a peak of 8.5 million tons in March. Despite shifting labels, more than 51 million tons of Iranian-origin crude—out of 57 million tons imported by China in 2024—were still moved via ship-to-ship (STS) transfers off Malaysia’s coast. The shift toward Indonesia as a declared origin intensified after Malaysia tightened enforcement on illegal STS activity in July.

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Suezmax Tankers Find “Sweet Spot” Amid Rising Atlantic Demand

Suezmax tankers, often called the “middle child” of the crude tanker fleet, are seeing strong demand as new trade routes and long-haul flows expand, with modern scrubber-fitted vessels earning an average of $99,000 per day. Rates from West Africa to northern Europe have hovered around a three-year average of $37,600 per day in 2024 but recently surged above $81,000, while Guyana-to-Europe voyages are approaching similar levels at $77,700 per day. The global Suezmax fleet currently totals 631 vessels, with 118 more on order, though about 20% of the fleet remains outside mainstream chartering due to shadow trading. One-year time-charter fixes for standard non-eco ships are around $42,000 per day, reflecting a healthy step-up from earlier in the year. Brokers note that ongoing refinery expansions in the Middle East and West Africa, coupled with rerouted and sanctioned trades, are tightening supply and increasing tonne-miles, supporting the market into 2026.

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Product Tanker Rates Climb as Refinery Margins Reach Multi-Year Highs

Product tanker rates are rising sharply, with LR2s averaging $38,200/day (+4.4%), LR1s $27,000/day (+8%), and MRs $34,000/day (+14%) over the past week, supported by steady cargo inflows and the end of refinery maintenance. High global refinery margins are a key driver, with US crack spreads hitting $32.13 per barrel—highest since March 2024—and Asian gasoline margins reaching 20-month highs; Finnish refiner Neste reports gasoline margins above $40/barrel, levels unseen since 2023. Product tanker earnings now exceed year-to-date averages ($30,000/day for LR2s and $20,900/day for MRs), following similar gains in VLCC and suezmax rates. Analysts cite rising OPEC+ exports and US crude output as additional support for the upward trend. The strong refining margins are helping the market absorb increasing oil production globally.

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COP30 Ends With Weak Climate Deal, No Fossil Fuel Phaseout, and Deep Divisions Among Nations

The COP30 summit in Brazil concluded with an agreement that avoids any explicit mention of phasing out fossil fuels, despite pressure from about 80 countries and the EU for a clearer roadmap away from oil, gas, and coal. The eight-page declaration was accepted reluctantly, with leaders acknowledging it falls far short of what is needed to limit warming to 1.5°C, though they preferred a weak deal over none. While the summit introduced voluntary initiatives — including the “Belém Mission to 1.5” — the main Global Mutirão decision provides no binding transition plan and barely references deforestation, despite Brazil’s emphasis on the issue. Several nations, including Panama and Colombia, objected strongly, arguing the deal fails to fund adaptation adequately and silences discussion of fossil-fuel transition, though last-minute talks promised future dialogue. The declaration also calls for tripling adaptation finance by 2035 to around $120 billion and criticizes unilateral trade measures such as the EU’s carbon border levy.