Oil Prices Slip as U.S. Pushes Ukraine Toward Controversial Peace Deal

Oil prices declined Thursday, with Brent at $63.38 (-0.2%) and WTI at $59.14 (-0.5%), as the Trump administration urged Ukraine to consider a peace proposal requiring territorial concessions to Russia. Markets reacted to President Zelenskiy’s willingness to review the plan, raising questions about whether new U.S. sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil—set to take effect Friday—might be delayed. Earlier gains from a 3.4 million-barrel U.S. crude drawdown (vs. 603,000-barrel expected) were overshadowed by rising geopolitical uncertainty. The EIA reported crude inventories fell to 424.2 million barrels, though U.S. gasoline and distillate stocks rose for the first time in over a month, signaling potential demand slowdown. Analysts said strong refining margins and export demand drove the larger-than-expected crude draw.

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US Sanctions Risk Stranding 48 Million Barrels of Russian Oil at Sea

US sanctions targeting Rosneft and Lukoil, effective November 21, could leave nearly 48 million barrels of Russian crude stranded at sea, forcing tankers to scramble for alternative destinations. Key shipments include Urals and ESPO grades, with roughly 50 tankers en route to China and India, while others have no clear destination as intermediaries avoid sanctioned trade. Russian seaborne exports remain large at about 3.4 million barrels per day, but secondary sanctions and the risk of enforcement are creating uncertainty for buyers in Asia. Several tankers, including the Spirit 2 (730,000 bbl) and Furia (730,000 bbl), have had to U-turn or divert, while others like Cindy (770,000 bbl) and Fortis (720,000 bbl) are using ship-to-ship transfers near Singapore, Malaysia, and South Korea to obscure origins. Analysts expect short-term disruption for three to four months, but markets may eventually adjust with alternative supply solutions.

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Reliance Halts Russian Crude Imports Ahead of Sanctions Deadlines

Reliance Industries has stopped importing Russian crude into its Jamnagar refining complex effective November 20, ending supplies under a long-term deal of nearly 500,000 bpd from Rosneft. The company confirmed that all product exports from December 1 will be derived solely from non-Russian crude, completing its transition earlier than required. The shift ensures compliance with U.S. sanctions that mandate a wind-down of transactions with Rosneft and Lukoil by November 21, and EU rules banning fuel produced from Russian crude 60 days before the bill of lading starting January 21. Europe currently accounts for 28% of Reliance’s product exports. Reliance said all pre-committed Russian crude liftings as of October 22 are being honored, with the final cargo loaded on November 12 and any post-November 20 arrivals processed only in its Domestic Tariff Area.

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India’s Crude Oil Imports Hit Six-Month High in October

India’s crude oil imports rose 8.9% month-on-month to 20.28 million metric tons in October 2025, marking the highest level since April and a 3.7% increase year-on-year from 19.56 million tons. In contrast, imports of crude oil products fell 7.1% YoY to 4.35 million tons, while exports of refined products rose 1.4% to 5.12 million tons. UBS analysts attributed the higher imports to seasonally rising demand and attractive discounts on Russian crude, with preliminary tracking data suggesting a slight increase in purchases from Russia. U.S. sanctions on Russian producers Lukoil and Rosneft, effective November 21, are expected to slow future imports, prompting Reliance, Mangalore Refinery, and HPCL-Mittal Energy to halt Russian crude purchases. India remains the world’s third-largest oil importer and consumer, having imported 1.9 million bpd of Russian crude in the first nine months of 2025, roughly 40% of Russia’s seaborne exports.

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Singapore Fuel Oil Stocks Stay Robust Above 24 Million Barrels

Singapore’s onshore fuel oil inventories eased 5.5% to 24.52 million barrels (≈3.86 million metric tons) in the week to November 19, marking a two-week low but remaining well above the year-to-date average of 22.5 million barrels. High stockpiles kept spot differentials for high-sulphur fuel oil in steep discounts, while low-sulphur fuel differentials remained rangebound. Total imports surged 47% week-on-week to 888,737 tons, mainly from the Netherlands, Saudi Arabia, and Indonesia, while exports fell 29% to 201,026 tons, with Bangladesh, China, and Hong Kong as key destinations. Net imports for the week totaled 687,711 tons, reflecting continued ample supply into the hub. The strong inventories suggest that Singapore’s fuel oil market remains well-supplied despite minor weekly drawdowns.

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Odfjell and Nissen Kaiun Launch Joint Venture with Plans to Expand Chemical Tanker Fleet

Norwegian and Japanese shipping companies Odfjell and Nissen Kaiun have formed a joint venture, Odfjell Hakata Maritime, to operate 10 stainless steel chemical tankers out of Bergen starting next month. Each company will contribute five vessels, with nine already operated by Odfjell under charter agreements and the 10th joining in December. Odfjell’s share price rose 4% in Oslo trading following the announcement. The companies plan to expand the fleet beyond the initial 10 ships in the future, serving as a growth vehicle alongside Odfjell’s existing fleet of about 70 tankers, while Nissen Kaiun has roughly 10 operational chemical vessels within its ~300-ship fleet. No staff relocations are planned, and the JV will initially operate under an agreement with Odfjell.

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Chinese Buyer Sets New Benchmark with $57M VLCC Purchase

A 320,000-dwt VLCC, Oceanic Fortune (built 2010), was sold for $57 million to an unnamed Chinese buyer, marking a new benchmark in a tight secondhand tanker market where spot rates exceed $100,000 per day. The vessel, formerly Marine Harmony and later Cosmo Ace, was recently drydocked and passed its special survey despite being idle for nine months in 2024. The sale price represents a notable increase from its $50 million valuation in 2020 and $55 million sale in 2022, signaling strong demand for older VLCCs. Comparable 2010-built VLCCs, including Navios’ Nave Quasar and Nave Constellation, sold for around $52.5 million, highlighting a firming secondhand market. Industry data shows that average prices for 15-year-old VLCCs have remained at their highest level since June 2023, reflecting continued tight supply and strong investor interest.