Oil Holds Steady as Market Balances Supply Glut Fears and Russian Sanctions Fallout

Oil prices stabilized on Monday following two consecutive weekly losses, with Brent trading above $63 per barrel and WTI below $60. Traders are weighing the risk of a global crude surplus, as upcoming reports from OPEC and the International Energy Agency are expected to clarify demand outlooks. The market remains tense after U.S. sanctions on Russia’s Rosneft and Lukoil heightened supply uncertainty. Meanwhile, Hungary secured an exemption from the sanctions following discussions with Washington, reflecting the complexity of enforcing the curbs in Europe. Overall, the market’s focus has shifted to whether slowing demand or tightening sanctions will dominate price direction in the coming weeks.

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US Grants Hungary One-Year Exemption from Russian Oil Sanctions After Trump-Orban Meeting

The United States has granted Hungary a one-year exemption from sanctions on Russian oil and gas following a White House meeting between President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Viktor Orban. Hungary, which relies on Russia for 74% of its gas and 86% of its oil in 2024, argued it cannot easily switch to alternative sources due to limited ports and refinery setups. In return, Hungary committed to buying $600 million of U.S. LNG. The meeting also covered Russia’s war in Ukraine, economic cooperation, and Hungary’s EU disputes, including a €200 million fine over migration policy. Trump expressed support for Orban’s 2026 election campaign and praised his immigration policies.

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Greece Signs 20-Year US LNG Deal as Performance Shipping Lands First Suezmax Charters with Repsol

Greece has signed its first long-term deal with the U.S. to import 700 million cubic metres of LNG per year starting in 2030, with potential purchases rising to 2 billion cubic metres annually via a joint venture between DEPA, Aktor, and Venture Global. The 20-year contract aims to replace Russian gas in Europe and supply Ukraine and Romania with up to 3.7 billion cubic metres of LNG through the Transbalkan pipeline until at least 2050. Meanwhile, Performance Shipping secured three-year charters at $36,500 per day with Spanish oil major Repsol for its newly acquired 157,300-dwt suezmax tankers Eco Bel Air and Eco Beverly Hills. The Repsol deal adds at least $78 million to the company’s contracted revenue backlog, bringing its total backlog to $335 million across 12 vessels. The agreements reflect strong demand in U.S. LNG exports to Europe and rising charter rates for modern suezmax vessels.

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Lukoil Faces Global Disruptions as U.S. Sanctions Derail Gunvor Sale and Threaten Key Assets

Lukoil’s international operations are facing severe disruption as the U.S. November 21 deadline approaches for companies to end business with the sanctioned Russian oil firm, following the collapse of a planned sale to Swiss trader Gunvor, which the U.S. Treasury labeled a “Kremlin puppet.” The sanctions, imposed alongside measures against Rosneft, are part of President Trump’s strategy to pressure Moscow over Ukraine. Lukoil may be forced to sell assets — including stakes in Iraq’s West Qurna 2 oilfield and refineries in Bulgaria and Romania — at steep discounts. In response, Moldova has requested a temporary U.S. exemption to avoid fuel shortages, while Bulgaria’s parliament passed a law to seize and sell Lukoil’s Burgas refinery under government oversight. Meanwhile, Finland’s Teboil stations, owned by Lukoil, are running dry due to sanctions-related supply disruptions, as the Kremlin called for respect of Lukoil’s “legitimate interests.”

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Two Russian Oil Tankers Anchor Near Suez Amid Sanctions and Slumping Sales

Two tankers, Sikar and Monte 1, carrying around 1.5 million barrels of Russian Urals crude, have anchored near the Suez Canal for over a week, reflecting Moscow’s struggle to sell oil after tightened Western sanctions. The latest U.S. and EU measures target Russia's largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, which together account for about 5% of global oil supply. Russian crude is now trading at its steepest discount to Brent in a year, with Indian and Chinese refiners reportedly reducing purchases. The Sikar, loaded on October 6 from Primorsk, is anchored near Port Said, while the Monte 1, loaded on October 7, is stationed in the Red Sea. Both vessels sail under the Gambian flag, highlighting the logistical and commercial strain sanctions are placing on Russian oil exports.

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China’s October Crude Imports Rise 8.2% YoY, Boosted by High Refinery Runs

China imported 48.36 million metric tons of crude in October, up 8.2% year-on-year and 2.3% from September, equivalent to 11.4 million bpd, as refineries operated at their highest utilisation rates this year. Seaborne imports rose 6% month-on-month to 10.4 million bpd, supported by state refiners increasing throughput to capture domestic market share and maximise fuel export quotas. Imports from West Africa and Brazil grew due to favorable arbitrage, while Russian Urals volumes reached 283,000 bpd, the highest since June 2023. Deliveries from Saudi Arabia and Iraq declined amid maintenance at Sinopec’s refineries, reducing long-term contract shipments. Year-to-date crude imports rose 3.1% to 471 million metric tons, while natural gas imports fell 7.2% in October and 6.2% year-to-date.

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Trump Launches Gulf Oil Lease Auction and Proposes Alaska Sale to Boost U.S. Energy Expansion

The Trump administration announced plans to auction 80 million acres for oil and gas drilling in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico on December 10, marking the first of 30 lease sales through 2040 under Trump’s energy policy. Additionally, the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) proposed leasing 1 million acres in Alaska’s Cook Inlet, with the first sale set for March 4, 2026, followed by five more between 2026–2032. These moves reflect Trump’s strategy to maximize fossil fuel production and roll back environmental regulations and green subsidies. Both lease areas will feature a 12.5% royalty rate, the lowest legally permitted, to stimulate strong industry participation. Acting BOEM Director Matt Giacona said the plan provides a “predictable, congressionally mandated” framework for decades of offshore development.

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Enbridge Eyes Second Phase of Mainline Expansion to Boost Canadian Oil Exports

Enbridge announced plans to assess market interest early next year for a second phase of expansion on its Mainline crude pipeline system, potentially adding 250,000 bpd of capacity by 2028. This follows a first phase expansion—expected to add 150,000 bpd by 2027—as demand for export routes from Canada’s oil sands rises. The Mainline, capable of transporting 3 million bpd, moved a record 3.1 million bpd in the third quarter despite Enbridge missing profit estimates due to higher financing costs. Canada’s oil production hit a record 5.1 million bpd in 2024, with another 500,000–600,000 bpd of growth expected by decade’s end. Enbridge said optimizing the Mainline remains the fastest and most cost-effective way to handle rising output, especially if the government relaxes emissions caps and regulatory hurdles.

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Japan to Boost LNG Emergency Reserves with Monthly Purchases from January

Japan will step up its Strategic Buffer LNG (SBL) program by buying at least one LNG cargo per month (≈70,000 tons) from January, raising annual emergency reserve purchases to 840,000 tons from about 210,000 tons in previous years. The move ensures at least one cargo is available each month to guard against supply shocks, with JERA managing the purchases and government covering any resale losses. Excess cargoes may be sold internationally when domestic demand is weak, as Japan expands its role as an LNG trader. From 2026, JERA will secure 12 monthly cargoes for the reserve program, up from seasonal winter purchases in previous years. Japan has no underground gas storage, but terminal capacity of ~12 bcm (~9 million tons) provides just over a month’s consumption.

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Tanker Community Gathers in Dubai as Bahri Week Kicks Off Amid Strong VLCC Rates

Tanker industry players are flocking to Dubai for Bahri Week, a five- to six-day series of lunches, dinners, receptions, and panels, attracting around 5,000 participants last year. The event, held at Westin Dubai Mina Seyahi Beach Resort & Marina, has grown from a crude oil-focused meet-up to include multiple tanker sectors while maintaining a core focus on tankers. Attendees are optimistic, buoyed by VLCC rates comfortably above six figures, a sharp improvement from early 2024 levels. The schedule features top shipowners and executives, including Bahri Group CEO Ahmed Ali Alsubaey, International Seaways CEO Lois Zabrocky, and Dynacom chief George Prokopiou, alongside a wide range of brokers and maritime organizations. The week concludes on Thursday with Bahri’s own event and evening party at Mina A ’Salaam, Madinat Jumeirah hotel, after a packed agenda of panels, meetings, and social gatherings.