Oil Prices Hold Steady as US-China Tariff Truce and Fed Rate Cut Balance Oversupply Concerns

Oil prices were steady on Thursday, with Brent at $65.00 and WTI at $60.57 per barrel, as markets digested a U.S.–China trade truce and the Federal Reserve’s rate cut. President Donald Trump lowered tariffs on China from 57% to 47% for one year in exchange for resumed soybean purchases, continued rare earth exports, and a fentanyl crackdown. Analysts viewed the move as a temporary easing rather than a fundamental resolution of trade tensions. Meanwhile, the Fed’s rate cut boosted the economic outlook and commodity sentiment, though U.S. oil output hit a record 13.6 million bpd, fueling oversupply worries. Investors are eyeing the November 2 OPEC+ meeting, where a further 137,000 bpd supply increase is expected, even as Saudi Arabia’s Q3 deficit surged 160% to 88.5 billion riyals ($23.6 billion) due to rising spending and weaker revenues.

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US and China Agree to One-Year Pause on Port Fee Dispute Amid Shipbuilding Rivalry

The US and China have agreed to suspend reciprocal port fees for one year, easing tensions in their ongoing maritime trade dispute. Washington had imposed special levies on Chinese vessels from October 14, citing concerns over China’s dominance in shipbuilding, prompting Beijing’s retaliatory fees the same day. China’s Ministry of Commerce confirmed the mutual suspension following the US decision, which aligns with President Trump and President Xi’s meeting in South Korea. The conflict had raised freight costs globally as both nations used port fees as tools in their broader industrial rivalry. Meanwhile, the US is seeking cooperation with Japan and South Korea to revive its shipbuilding sector, while China investigates US actions targeting its maritime industry.

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U.S. Grants India Six-Month Sanctions Waiver for Iran’s Chabahar Port Amid Thaw in Bilateral Ties

The United States has granted India a six-month sanctions waiver to operate Iran’s Chabahar port, enabling New Delhi to strengthen trade links with Afghanistan and Central Asia while bypassing Pakistan. India had signed a 10-year deal with Iran last year to develop the port, which includes a planned rail link to Afghanistan to boost regional commerce. The waiver marks a diplomatic shift as President Donald Trump expressed interest in a new U.S.-India trade deal, after previously doubling tariffs on Indian imports to 50% in response to India’s Russian oil purchases. The move also comes as Indian refiners cut Russian crude imports following U.S. sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil. India’s foreign ministry confirmed the exemption, effective Wednesday, while continuing trade negotiations with Washington.

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Indian Refiners Shift to Americas and Middle East as U.S. Sanctions Disrupt Russian Oil Imports

Following new U.S. sanctions on Russia’s top oil producers, Indian refiners have sharply reduced purchases of Russian crude and turned to spot markets for alternatives. Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals (MRPL) bought 2 million barrels of Abu Dhabi Murban crude from Glencore to replace Russian supplies for December and plans to continue sourcing monthly. Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) has invited bids for 24 million barrels of crude from the Americas for early 2026 and recently purchased 2 million barrels of West African oil from ExxonMobil. HPCL-Mittal Energy and Reliance Industries, India’s largest buyer of Russian oil, have also halted imports from Russia, instead purchasing grades from Qatar, Iraq, Abu Dhabi, and the U.S.. Reliance, which runs the world’s largest refinery in Jamnagar, says it will comply with Western sanctions while maintaining stable supply lines from existing partners.

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Russian Naphtha Cargo Stranded Off India After U.S. Sanctions Disrupt Trade

A Russian naphtha shipment has been stranded off India’s west coast since October 26 after fresh U.S. sanctions on Russian energy suppliers disrupted trade flows. The vessel, carrying about 40,000 tons of naphtha from Russia’s Ust-Luga port, has been unable to unload near Mundra in Gujarat, shipping data shows. India—previously the second-largest buyer of Russian naphtha—has already discharged all other recent cargoes, but refiners are now curbing Russian imports amid sanction risks and 50% U.S. tariffs on Indian exports. State-linked HPCL-Mittal Energy, which sources supplies through Mundra, confirmed it will not buy from sanctioned entities and has enough inventory during its planned maintenance. October loadings from Russian ports to India reached 185,000 tons, with most shipments still en route and facing potential delays.

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Lukoil Agrees to Sell International Assets to Gunvor Following US Sanctions

Russian oil giant Lukoil has agreed to sell its international assets, including refineries, oil fields, and gas stations, to commodity trader Gunvor after being hit by US sanctions. The deal includes Lukoil’s trading arm Litasco but excludes Dubai-based units recently sanctioned. Gunvor, cash-rich from recent energy market volatility, could gain an integrated system of upstream and downstream businesses, boosting its global footprint. The transaction is subject to approval by the US Treasury and other authorities, adding regulatory complexity. Lukoil’s international operations are extensive, spanning Iraq, Africa, Europe, and Asia, making this a significant move in the global oil market.

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Nigeria Imposes 15% Fuel Import Duty to Protect $20 Billion Dangote Refinery and Boost Self-Sufficiency

Nigeria has introduced a 15% import duty on petrol and diesel to shield local refiners and strengthen domestic fuel production, according to a presidential memo. The move, signed by President Bola Tinubu on October 21, is part of broader fiscal reforms to boost non-oil revenues ahead of 2026 tax changes. Authorities said the duty will help curb inflows of cheaper imported fuel, support the $20 billion, 650,000 bpd Dangote refinery, and stabilize the downstream market. The new tariff is expected to raise pump prices by about 99 naira, from the current 928 naira ($0.63) per litre. Nigeria, Africa’s top oil producer, aims to achieve fuel self-sufficiency after decades of reliance on imports and periodic fuel shortages.

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North Sea Crude Exports Set for 8-Year Peak Amid Global Oversupply

North Sea oil loadings are projected to reach 2.1 million bpd in December, the highest since May 2017, driven by new production and returning fields. Benchmark BFOET grades — Brent, Forties, Oseberg, Ekofisk, and Troll— will see a five-month high in exports, reinforcing global supply pressures. Norway’s Johan Sverdrup and new Johan Castberg fields are key contributors, alongside Buzzard field returning after maintenance. Analysts warn that the surge adds to a growing global oil glut, which could weigh on prices into 2026. The increase coincides with expectations of rising OPEC+ output, further amplifying oversupply concerns.

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Oil Majors Launch Global Tanker Security Inspections

A group of oil major charterers has launched a global inspection campaign to ensure tankers are prepared for rising geopolitical risks. The OCIMF SIRE 2.0 program will assess crew familiarity with company procedures and plans for vessel “hardening” against threats. The campaign, which began in October, will run for at least six months, with an interim review in February. Findings will be used to identify trends and improve inspection protocols, reinforcing maritime safety and operational continuity. OCIMF emphasized that well-trained crews and updated procedures are critical for maintaining resilience in today’s complex maritime security environment.