Oil Prices Slide as Markets Weigh Russia Sanctions and OPEC+ Supply Plans

Oil prices fell around 2% on Tuesday, with Brent settling at $64.40 a barrel and WTI at $60.15, marking a third straight daily loss as markets weighed U.S. sanctions on Russia’s Rosneft and Lukoil, which together produce about 2% of global oil output, against possible OPEC+ supply increases. The U.S. granted Germany a waiver for Rosneft’s assets, easing fears of severe shortages, while the IEA said global spare capacity would limit disruption. Indian refiners halted new Russian crude orders pending clarity, and Lukoil announced plans to sell its international assets in response to sanctions. OPEC+ is reportedly leaning toward a modest output boost in December, following months of easing earlier production cuts. Meanwhile, U.S. crude inventories dropped by 4.02 million barrels, gasoline by 6.35 million, and distillates by 4.36 million, signaling firm demand despite broader market caution.

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Asian Refining Margins Surge on Diesel Tightness Amid Russia Sanctions

Asian refining profits have jumped to their highest in 20 months, with Singapore’s complex margin reaching nearly $9 per barrel, up from about $2 in early October, driven by tight diesel supplies and strong demand. Benchmark 10ppm sulphur gasoil cracks surpassed $26 per barrel, reflecting constrained flows as the U.S. sanctioned Russian exporters Rosneft and Lukoil, which ship around 1 million bpd of diesel. Indian refiners pausing Russian purchases and seasonal refinery turnarounds in Europe and Asia have tightened middle-distillate availability, while spot cargoes from South Korea, China, and Taiwan for November shipments are limited. Gasoline margins rose nearly 30% this month to around $13 per barrel, supported by Southeast Asian outages, though naphtha and fuel oil margins remained subdued. Analysts expect high refinery runs to continue, aided by rising OPEC+ medium sour crude output, improving crude slate optimisation and clean product yields.

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U.S. Exempts Rosneft’s German Operations from Sanctions, Securing Fuel Supply

The U.S. has exempted Rosneft’s German subsidiaries from new sanctions, issuing a “Letter of Comfort” to confirm that operations, including the PCK Schwedt refinery (54.17% stake) and stakes in MiRo (24%) and Bayernoil (28.57%), are fully separated from the Russian parent company, Germany’s economy minister said. The exemption ensures that Western banks and clients can continue dealing with these assets without fear of U.S. penalties, supporting Germany’s fuel supply. The PCK refinery alone accounts for over 12% of Germany’s fuel processing capacity and is a key regional employer in Brandenburg. Talks continue to formalize a permanent exemption, as the assets have been under German state trusteeship since 2022. The decision removes uncertainty for customers and underscores Berlin’s argument that the refineries are decoupled from Rosneft while remaining vital for national energy security.

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Indian Refiners Pause Russian Oil Orders Amid New U.S. Sanctions, Seek Alternatives

Many Indian refiners have halted new Russian oil purchases following U.S. sanctions on Russia’s top crude exporters, Lukoil and Rosneft, as they await government guidance, while Indian Oil Corp stated it would continue buying from non-sanctioned entities within the price cap. India, which imported 1.9 million bpd of Russian crude in the first nine months of 2025—about 40% of Russia’s exports—has seen refiners like Reliance, MRPL, and BPCL turn to spot markets to secure alternative supplies. BPCL, which buys 2 million metric tons of oil monthly, hopes to retain half from non-sanctioned Russian entities while replacing the rest with grades such as Iraq’s Basrah Heavy and U.S. WTI, though the latter costs $3–$3.50 more per barrel. Refiners have canceled orders from sanctioned-linked traders and are seeking clarity on future transactions as compliance risks rise. The sanctions have disrupted India’s reliance on discounted Russian oil since Moscow’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

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Yulong Petrochemical Ramps Up Russian Oil Imports After Western Sanctions

China’s Shandong Yulong Petrochemical is sharply increasing Russian oil imports to offset canceled supplies from the Middle East and Canada following British and EU sanctions over its previous Russian crude purchases, five trading sources told Reuters. The 400,000 bpd refiner, operating above 90% capacity, is set to receive 15 Russian crude shipments in November — mainly ESPO blend along with Urals and Sokol — totaling up to 405,000 bpd, a record for the plant. Yulong’s pivot comes after multiple suppliers withdrew deals due to sanctions, leaving a supply gap the refiner is now filling with Russian cargoes. The move follows broader disruptions as new U.S. and EU measures against Russia’s oil sector prompted major Chinese and Indian buyers to temporarily halt Russian crude purchases. Some of Yulong’s new cargoes reportedly came from Unipec which stopped Russian deals amid concerns over secondary sanctions.

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Aramco CEO: Oil Demand Remains Strong Ahead of Russian Sanctions

Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said global crude demand was already strong before new U.S. and U.K. sanctions targeting Russian oil majors Rosneft and Lukoil, adding that Chinese demand remains healthy. Speaking at the Future Investment Initiative conference in Riyadh, Nasser said the market is watching how the sanctions will affect prices but emphasized that hydrocarbons will remain essential for decades. He noted recent policy “u-turns” in parts of the world acknowledging the continued importance of oil and gas. The comments come as President Trump’s administration pivots U.S. energy policy back toward fossil fuels. Aramco is also investing $2 billion in its tech arm, Aramco Digital, over three years after realizing $6 billion in value from technology investments since 2022.

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VLCC Rates Climb as Alafouzos and Angelicoussis Score Big in US Gulf

VLCC rates are climbing, with Jefferies analyst Omar Nokta noting five US Gulf fixtures on Monday, including four to China and one to India, lifting average rates 3.7% to $81,800 per day. Tankers International data showed two US Gulf fixtures above $100,000 per day, including Maran Artemis (319,400-dwt, 2016) at $135,438/day for ExxonMobil and Nissos Despotiko (318,700-dwt, 2019) at $123,298/day for Equinor. The Alafouzos family’s Kyklades Maritime previously fixed Nissos Kea (300,000-dwt, 2022) at $138,972/day from the Middle East to China. Strength in VLCCs has boosted other tanker segments, with suezmaxes rising to $60,000/day from $42,000/day and aframaxes to $45,000/day from $37,000/day. Analysts expect tight VLCC availability to continue, putting upward pressure on all crude tanker rates ahead of the peak winter trading season.

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Western Sanctions Trigger Tanker Market ‘Shockwaves’ Amid Shifting Russian Flows

The latest US and EU sanctions on Russia, targeting Rosneft, Lukoil, and 117 vessels, are boosting demand for mainstream crude tankers while creating a complex picture for product carriers, with brokers describing “shockwaves” through the oil and tanker markets. Russia exports over 500,000 bpd of gasoil and diesel to the Western hemisphere, and any reduction could trigger a scramble for cargoes, redirecting flows from the US, Europe, South America, and Asia, affecting MR and LR tanker demand. Chinese refiners, who have built up inventories, can adopt a wait-and-see approach, while Indian refiners like Reliance Industries may recalibrate purchases, impacting up to 500,000 bpd of Rosneft crude under long-term contracts. Analysts note that naphtha flows to Taiwan and India, largely from Russia, could tighten, with alternative supplies coming from the Middle East, US Gulf, and Mediterranean, supporting freight rates for MRs. Overall, higher oil prices and disrupted flows are expected to increase tonne-mile demand, benefiting VLCCs and mainstream tanker operators amid growing market inefficiencies.

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Angelicoussis Sells VLCC to Yinson as Greek Owner Trims Tanker Fleet

Greece’s Angelicoussis Shipping Group has sold the 300,000-dwt VLCC Maran Antares (built 2012) to Singapore-based Yinson Production, which operates 11 FPSOs, with ownership and technical management changes recorded on 17 October. The scrubber-fitted tanker, valued at $68m by VesselsValue, has been renamed YP Antares and is three days out from Galle, Sri Lanka, awaiting orders, possibly for conversion to production or storage. This marks the ninth VLCC sale by Angelicoussis since mid-2022; the group still owns 34 VLCCs averaging eight years in age, with its oldest built in 2009. Previous sales include the 320,500-dwt Maran Capricorn (built 2008) sold for around $52m, and similar premiums achieved for vessels like the Maran Canopus and Maran Aries. Yinson recently issued $1.17bn in senior secured notes to refinance the 100,000-bpd FPSO Maria Quiteria, reflecting its expansion into floating production and storage operations, alongside partnerships in CO2 transport and storage with Japan’s K Line.

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Sanctioned Russian Oil Tanker Grounds in Suez Canal, Briefly Halting Northbound Traffic

A 150,600-dwt aframax tanker Komander (built 2004), carrying Russian crude and listed on US, UK, Swiss, and Ukrainian sanctions, ran aground in the Suez Canal on Tuesday around 12:30 local time while heading south from Murmansk to China. The vessel was refloated by 14:45, but all 20 northbound convoy vessels were temporarily stopped until it cleared. The Komander, previously named Krishna 1 and Prudence, has changed flags multiple times and is part of the so-called “dark fleet” operating outside mainstream insurance and classification. No damage or pollution was reported, and other southbound vessels were unaffected. While Suez Canal incidents can disrupt global trade—as with the Ever Given in 2021—current shipping patterns around Africa limit potential wider disruption.