OPEC Output Plans Weigh on Oil Prices Despite U.S.-China Trade Deal Hopes

Oil prices fell slightly on Monday as expectations of another OPEC+ output increase outweighed optimism over a potential U.S.-China trade deal and renewed U.S. sanctions on Russia. Brent crude settled at $65.62 per barrel and WTI at $61.31, both easing after earlier declines. Sources said OPEC+ is leaning toward a modest December production boost, led by Saudi Arabia’s efforts to reclaim market share, while trade talks between Presidents Trump and Xi raised hopes of tariff and export control relief. Analysts noted that despite sanctions on Russian oil firms, traders remain cautious about their real impact on global supplies amid lingering demand concerns. Experts added that U.S. consumption recovery and enforcement of Russian sanctions will be key to determining whether prices stabilize or drift lower.

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OPEC+ Considers Modest December Output Hike Amid Sanctions and Seasonal Demand Concerns

OPEC+, which includes major producers like Russia and Saudi Arabia, is leaning toward a modest 137,000 barrels-per-day output increase for December as part of its gradual efforts to reclaim market share after years of supply cuts. The group has already restored about half of its previous 5.85 million bpd reductions through a series of monthly hikes totaling 2.7 million bpd. Recent increases have become harder to agree on due to sanctions hindering Russia’s oil sales, and Moscow remains cautious about larger hikes. While some members favor a pause in increases to reflect slowing seasonal demand, political factors—including pressure from U.S. President Trump and Saudi Arabia’s upcoming Washington visit—add complexity to the decision. The next OPEC+ meeting on Sunday will determine whether the group continues with its planned incremental output rise.

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Global Oil on Water Hits Record Amid Rising Oversupply

The volume of oil aboard tankers worldwide has surged to nearly 1.4 billion barrels, marking a record high since 2016, signaling continued oversupply despite recent price gains from U.S. sanctions on Russian giants Lukoil and Rosneft. Crude oil on water has risen steadily over the past 10 weeks, the longest run on record, driven by increased output from OPEC+ and non-OPEC producers, particularly in the Americas. While sanctions caused a temporary rebound from five-month lows, oil prices are still on track for a 7% decline this month. The rise in floating oil underscores persistent global supply pressure despite geopolitical interventions. The International Energy Agency forecasts a record market surplus next year as global production continues to expand.

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Lukoil to Sell Global Assets Amid Escalating Western Sanctions

Russia’s second-largest oil producer Lukoil announced plans to sell its international assets under a U.S. OFAC wind-down license following new sanctions imposed by the United States and Britain over the war in Ukraine. The move marks one of the most significant corporate responses yet to Western restrictions targeting Russia’s energy sector. U.S. President Donald Trump sanctioned Lukoil and Rosneft on October 22, while the U.K. followed on October 15 with measures against both firms and 44 shadow fleet tankers. Lukoil, which produces about 2% of global oil, owns major overseas assets including a 75% stake in Iraq’s West Qurna 2 oil field producing 480,000 bpd, as well as refineries in Bulgaria and Romania. The company also supplies oil to Hungary, Slovakia, and Turkey, and holds investments in Europe, Central Asia, Africa, and Latin America.

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Oilfield Majors Shift Focus to AI and Data Center Power as Drilling Slows

Oilfield service giants SLB, Halliburton, and Baker Hughes are shifting toward AI and data center infrastructure to offset slowing drilling demand and weaker oil prices. With U.S. producers cutting exploration budgets, these firms see growth in supplying power systems, turbines, and digital platforms to meet surging AI-related electricity needs. Baker Hughes reported over $4 billion in new orders for its Industrial & Energy Technology division, while Halliburton is expanding its partnership with VoltaGrid to power Oracle’s next-generation AI data centers. SLB’s new Digital Division, now its fastest-growing unit, posted 11% quarterly growth and nearly $1 billion in recurring revenue by providing cloud, AI, and modular infrastructure solutions. Analysts say this strategic pivot positions the companies for long-term growth as demand for distributed power and digital capacity accelerates.

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IEA Predicts Record LNG Boom to Boost Supply and Cut Prices by 2030

The International Energy Agency (IEA) said a record 300 billion cubic meters of new LNG export capacity—mainly from the U.S. and Qatar—will come online by 2030, enhancing global energy security and likely lowering gas prices. In its “Gas 2025” outlook, the agency projected a net LNG supply increase of 250 bcm per year, which is expected to spur global demand growth of 1.5% annually between 2024 and 2030, led by Asia Pacific and the Middle East. The IEA noted that Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine caused severe supply shocks and record-high prices that have since eased but remain elevated. Director Keisuke Sadamori said the upcoming LNG wave will bring relief to tight gas markets but warned that geopolitical and economic risks require ongoing vigilance. The agency also cautioned that prolonged low prices could discourage investment and cause market tightening beyond 2030.

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AD Ports Group Enters VLCC Market with Acquisition of Veteran Tanker

Abu Dhabi’s AD Ports Group, through its shipping arm Noatum Maritime, has entered the VLCC sector by acquiring the 299,000-dwt VS87 (built 2004), renamed ST1, for around $40 million. The deal follows Noatum’s recent purchase of the 73,000-dwt LR1 VS88 and expands its fleet, which already includes 48 vessels such as suezmax, aframax, container ships, bulkers, and offshore units. The VLCC acquisition reflects strong activity in the sale-and-purchase market, with the vessel previously sold by SK Shipping in March 2024 for $31.5–33.5 million. Noatum has also been linked to other tanker purchases, including Scorpio Tankers LR2s, and maintains partnerships in Central Asia to diversify oil transport routes. The move signals AD Ports Group’s strategic push into larger crude tankers, complementing prior aframax and potential suezmax investments.

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Bruton Expands VLCC Fleet with Up to Four Newbuildings in China

Tor Olav Troim’s Bruton has finalized contracts for up to four additional VLCC newbuildings at New Times Shipbuilding in China through its Andes Tankers III unit, following a recent letter of intent. The order includes two firm ships with options for two more, all fitted with scrubbers and potentially LNG dual-fuelled, bringing Bruton's fleet to eight VLCCs if all options are exercised. The firm VLCCs are priced at $133.85 million each, with delivery scheduled between Q4 2028 and Q2 2029, while the optional units are projected for the final two quarters of the decade. Bruton is funding the expansion via a $110 million upsized Oslo share placement and plans to raise up to $300 million more, possibly in New York. The company is also merging with Troim-controlled Andes Tankers II, consolidating stakes previously held by Koch Shipping, Songa Shipping Invest, and other partners.

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Suezmax Market Tightness to Support Further Rate Gains, Brokers Say

Brokers expect suezmax tanker rates to rise further as tonnage remains tight, with average spot rates assessed at $58,400 per day, up 5% from Friday. Sentosa Ship Brokers highlighted a light start to November with just 19 cargoes covered for the first 10 days and tight tonnage into mid-month, creating a “messy cluster” of prompt ships with uncertain positions. West Africa continues to attract ships westward, while tight aframax availability in the Middle East Gulf could lead to suezmaxes being substituted, adding pressure to rates. A fire at Iraq’s Khor-al-Zubair oilfield may cause cargo delays and operational disruptions, injecting further volatility into the market. Brokers note limited vessel availability globally and anticipate owners holding off fixing to benefit from rising rates, suggesting firm conditions will persist this week.

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One-Third of Aframax Tankers Blacklisted Amid Sanctions Surge

Nearly one-third of the global aframax tanker fleet has been blacklisted due to Western sanctions, with 908 vessels, or 16% of the total tanker fleet, now sanctioned, according to Clarksons. Aframaxes have the highest proportion of blacklisted capacity at 33%, reflecting their key role in transporting Russian oil, while VLCCs and suezmaxes are less affected at 16%. Analysts note that recent US sanctions on Russian oil giants Lukoil and Rosneft may have a greater impact on oil flows than the tanker sanctions themselves. Indian refiners are reportedly reducing Russian oil purchases, with some Chinese state refiners possibly following, potentially boosting demand for mainstream tankers. The sanctioned fleet is older than the mainstream fleet, averaging 21 years, and tanker sanctions account for about half of all blacklisted ships globally.

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Pirate Mothership and Skiffs Sighted Off Somalia, Shipowners Warned

Maritime security firms have issued warnings to shipowners after possible sightings of pirate groups, including a mothership and skiffs, off Garacad in Somalia’s Puntland region. No piracy incidents have occurred since April, but improved weather conditions at the end of the monsoon season may allow pirate groups to operate more easily. Regional naval authorities are investigating, and shipping companies are advised to increase vigilance and deploy armed security where possible. Recent reports include a suspected pirate action group departing Marreya and the earlier robbery of small boats from a dhow. While Somalia remains a concern, piracy threats in the Red Sea, West Africa, and the Singapore Strait have recently been more prominent.

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IMO Net-Zero Plan Faces Setback as Major Flag States Push Delay

The International Maritime Organization’s net-zero decarbonisation plan faces delays after a 57-49 vote postponed decisions to 2050, reflecting scepticism from major flag states. Five of the ten largest flag states, representing nearly 50% of global tonnage—including Panama, Liberia, Hong Kong, China, and the Bahamas—supported the delay, giving them the power to block amendments despite wider backing. The vote followed lobbying from the US and Saudi Arabia, weakening momentum from six months ago and fracturing EU unity due to abstentions from Greece and Cyprus. Analysts warn that regulation adoption may now be postponed until 2029, with uncertainty over whether it will be implemented at all. Technical discussions continue, keeping the door open for possible progress in 2026, but adoption in its current form remains uncertain.