Oil Prices Rebound After Trump Says India Will Halt Russian Purchases

Oil prices rose from a five-month low after U.S. President Donald Trump announced that India will stop buying Russian crude, a move expected to tighten global supply. WTI neared $59 a barrel and Brent settled just under $62, recovering from earlier losses. Trump noted that India could not cease purchases “immediately,” but his statement fueled expectations of reduced Russian exports. The U.S. has accused Indian firms of profiting from discounted Russian oil while New Delhi explores increasing American imports by up to $15 billion. However, gains were capped by rising U.S.-China trade tensions, expectations of a global oil surplus, and reports showing a 7.4 million-barrel jump in U.S. crude inventories, the largest since July.

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Trump Says Modi Agrees to Halt Russian Oil Imports

U.S. President Donald Trump announced that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has pledged to stop buying Russian oil, a major shift that could significantly impact Moscow’s energy revenues. India currently imports 1.62 million bpd of Russian crude—about one-third of its total oil imports—but has faced growing U.S. pressure to curb purchases amid sanctions over the Ukraine war. Trump said he would next seek to persuade China, another key buyer, to follow suit, as Washington intensifies efforts to isolate Russia economically. The U.S. president recently imposed 25% tariffs on Indian exports, doubling them in response to India’s continued crude imports, though he acknowledged the phase-out “will be a process.” If implemented, India’s withdrawal from Russian oil could reshape global crude trade and signal deepening U.S.-India cooperation under Trump’s administration.

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UK Targets Russia’s Lukoil, Rosneft, and Shadow Fleet in New Sanctions Push

The UK has imposed sweeping new sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, Russia’s two largest oil producers, along with over 50 ships, to further cut Kremlin oil revenues that fund the war in Ukraine. The measures include asset freezes, travel bans, and restrictions on tankers and LNG carriers linked to Russia’s shadow fleet, including ships serving sanctioned Arctic LNG projects. Britain also banned imports of oil products refined from Russian crude in third countries like India, closing a major sanctions loophole. The sanctions extend to Chinese oil terminals and India’s Nayara Energy, part-owned by Rosneft, while campaigners warned that Russian oil could still reach markets via UAE, Indian, and Chinese intermediaries. UK officials said the move sends a clear message that “Russian oil is off the market” and forms part of a broader G7 effort to intensify pressure on Moscow’s energy sector.

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Supertanker Freight Rates Surge Amid U.S.-China Port Fee Battle and Sanctions

Supertanker freight rates jumped sharply this week as the U.S.-China trade conflict escalated with new reciprocal port fees and U.S. sanctions on China’s Rizhao oil terminal. The VLCC rate for the Middle East-to-China route (TD3C) reached W98, equivalent to about $6.2 million per voyage, up from W70 a week earlier. China’s retaliatory port fees could add over $7 a barrel (roughly $15 million) in shipping costs for U.S.-linked tankers, although Chinese-built vessels are now exempt, reducing the initial shock. Analysts estimate that around 12% of the global crude tanker fleet could be affected by these new fees. The Rizhao terminal sanctions have diverted traffic to Zhoushan, raising congestion risks but are expected to have a muted long-term effect on trade flow.

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Tanker Diversions from Sanctioned Chinese Port Threaten Congestion at Alternative Terminals

At least five crude tankers have been diverted from China’s Rizhao Shihua terminal after the U.S. sanctioned the port for receiving Iranian oil, disrupting operations for major refiners like Sinopec. The redirection of vessels is causing potential congestion at alternative ports, especially Zhoushan, where multiple VLCCs including New Vista and Xin Yue Yang are now waiting to discharge. Zhoushan’s strategic pipeline links to Sinopec’s refineries make it a key substitute, though capacity strains are rising. Meanwhile, TotalEnergies diverted its VLCC Habshan to Tianjin, where Sinopec operates another refinery and oil reserve base. Sinopec Kantons, part-owner of the sanctioned terminal, acknowledged that the sanctions would negatively affect its business.

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Iranian Tankers Uniquely Reactivate AIS Transponders Amid Export Surge

Iran-flagged tankers have unexpectedly switched on their AIS transponders for the first time in over seven years, an unprecedented move that has sparked speculation about their motivations. Analysts suggest the move could be aimed at signaling legitimacy to Asian buyers, though the exact reason remains unclear. TankerTrackers and TradeWinds noted several large vessels near Iran and Singapore broadcasting positions and availability for orders. The switch-on coincides with a surge in Iranian crude exports, which hit 2.1 million bpd in September, the highest level in at least five years. The activity marks a notable shift in the behavior of Iran’s “dark fleet,” which has historically avoided AIS tracking.