Oil Prices Drop on OPEC+ Output Hike Speculation and Kurdish Export Resumption

Oil prices fell on Tuesday as markets braced for a potential OPEC+ output hike and the restart of Kurdish oil exports via Turkey. Brent crude for November settled at $67.02 per barrel, down $0.95 (1.4%), while U.S. WTI closed at $62.37, down $1.08 (1.7%). Sources indicated OPEC+ could raise production in November by 274,000–411,000 bpd, possibly up to 500,000 bpd, far above October’s 137,000 bpd hike, although OPEC officially denied such plans. Adding to supply pressure, Iraq resumed crude exports from its Kurdistan region for the first time in 2.5 years, while U.S. crude output hit a record 13.64 million bpd in July. Meanwhile, U.S. crude stocks dropped by 3.67 million barrels, but gasoline and distillate inventories rose, signaling mixed demand trends.

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OPEC+ Considers Larger November Output Hike to Regain Market Share

OPEC+ is weighing whether to accelerate its November oil production increase beyond the 137,000 bpd hike agreed for October, with options ranging from 274,000 to 411,000 bpd, and possibly as high as 500,000 bpd, according to sources. Saudi Arabia is pushing for faster hikes to boost market share, though Russia may resist due to sanctions limiting its output and concerns over weaker seasonal demand. The group, which supplies about half of the world’s oil, has already raised quotas by more than 2.5 million bpd (2.4% of world demand) since April after reversing its output-cut strategy under pressure from the U.S. to lower prices. At their peak, OPEC+ cuts totaled 5.85 million bpd, and members are currently unwinding layers of these reductions in phases. Eight OPEC+ countries will meet online on October 5 to finalize November production levels.

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Middle East Oil Benchmarks Slide as Supply Glut Hits Market

Middle East oil benchmarks Dubai, Oman, and Murban saw spot premiums slump sharply at the end of September, despite strong stockpiling demand from China. A record 49 cargoes, or 24.5 million barrels, were delivered via the Platts Market on Close process, with Vitol, Gunvor, PetroChina, and North Petroleum International as key buyers. Trading house Mercuria emerged as the top seller, offloading 45 cargoes, mostly Abu Dhabi’s Upper Zakum grade, and sourcing additional supply from Asian refiners. Dubai’s premium, which hit a six-month high of $3.63 per barrel in mid-September, collapsed to 88 cents on Monday, losing over two-thirds of its value in just three sessions. The volatility leaves Saudi Arabia in a difficult position as it prepares to set official November selling prices to Asia.

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Iraq Targets Doubling Kurdish Oil Flows via Kirkuk-Ceyhan Pipeline

Iraq plans to more than double crude flows through the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline by 2026, aiming for 400,000–500,000 bpd, up from the 150,000–160,000 bpd currently moving after the pipeline reopened on September 27. The reopening occurs amid rising global oil supplies and U.S. pressure on Iraq to resume Kurdish flows to curb Iranian exports. Companies owed oil under previous prepayment deals with the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) will be prioritized for cargo allocations. The tanker Vallesina is scheduled to load 700,000 barrels of Kurdish crude on October 2, marking the first shipment since the resumption. Iraq’s strategy underscores its effort to regain market share while navigating regional and international pressures.

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U.S. Oil and Gas Output Sets New Records in July Despite Demand Slowdown

U.S. crude oil production hit a record 13.64 million bpd in July, rising by 109,000 bpd from June’s previous peak, according to the EIA. Texas led with 5.8 million bpd, the highest since October 2024, while New Mexico reached a record 2.28 million bpd. Gross natural gas output in the Lower 48 states also set a new high at 121.62 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd), surpassing June’s 120.57 bcfd. Texas boosted gas output 1.4% to 37.35 bcfd, but Pennsylvania fell 2.2% to 21.04 bcfd. Despite strong production, U.S. oil demand weakened, with product supplied slipping to 20.98 million bpd, while gasoline demand fell 112,000 bpd to 9.15 million bpd and distillates dropped 161,000 bpd to 3.8 million bpd.

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Houthis Threaten U.S. Oil Majors Amid Rising Tensions

Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis announced sanctions against ExxonMobil, Chevron, 13 U.S. firms, 9 executives, and 2 vessels, in retaliation for U.S. measures imposed earlier this year despite a truce with Washington. The Houthi-linked Humanitarian Operations Coordination Center (HOCC) said the sanctions aim to pressure the U.S. after it accused the group of Red Sea attacks, raising concerns over whether Houthi forces might escalate to targeting U.S.-linked ships. Analysts warned that such actions could violate the ceasefire agreement brokered with U.S. President Trump, though the move is seen largely as symbolic and unlikely to disrupt oil flows. The Houthis have targeted vessels in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden since 2023, though their actions have not significantly affected tanker traffic through the critical Strait of Hormuz, which remains dominated by Chinese, Russian, Iranian, and Gulf traders. Experts suggest the sanctions are more of a political gesture to reassure supporters amid growing U.S. sanctions and Israeli military pressure, rather than a real threat to global oil supply.

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Exxon to Cut 2,000 Jobs in Canada and EU Amid Global Restructuring

ExxonMobil announced it will lay off 2,000 workers worldwide, representing about 3–4% of its 61,000 global workforce, with the majority of cuts in Canada and the EU. Roughly 1,200 positions in Norway and the EU will be eliminated by 2027, while layoffs at Canadian affiliate Imperial Oil account for about half of the reductions. The restructuring aims to streamline operations by consolidating office locations, including building a new European Technology Centre in Antwerp while closing smaller EU offices. Exxon cited challenging regulatory pressures in Europe, particularly an EU corporate sustainability law that could impose fines of up to 5% of global sales for supply-chain violations, as a factor in its realignment. The cuts come as oil majors face weaker profits from a 10.5% year-to-date drop in Brent crude prices, with peers Chevron and ConocoPhillips also announcing workforce reductions of up to 20–25%.

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Russia Imposes Partial Diesel Export Ban, Extends Gasoline Restrictions Amid Shortages

Russia has announced a partial ban on diesel exports and extended its existing gasoline export ban until year-end to stabilize domestic fuel supply following Ukrainian drone attacks on refineries. The diesel restrictions apply to resellers and marine fuels but not to direct producers, while the gasoline ban covers all exporters. Analysts expect limited impact on overall fuel flows, given Russia’s existing prohibitive export tariffs for non-producers. The measures follow widespread gasoline shortages in regions including Nizhny Novgorod and the far east, while Crimea introduced 30-liter fuel rationing and a 30-day price freeze. These steps highlight the strain on Russia’s refining sector, which ranks as the world’s third-largest oil producer.

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France Probes Shadow Fleet Oil Tanker Anchored Off Coast

French authorities are investigating the oil tanker Pushpa, suspected of being part of the “shadow fleet” transporting Russian crude, after it anchored near Saint Nazaire. The vessel, built in 2007, is listed under UK and EU sanctions for irregular shipping practices and links to Russian oil exports. Earlier this year, Estonian authorities detained the ship for sailing without a valid flag. The French Navy began monitoring Pushpa after it entered the North Sea, and a probe was opened when the crew failed to prove the ship’s nationality or comply with orders. The tanker has changed names multiple times, but retains the same IMO number.

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VLCCs Poised for Strength After Lagging Behind Smaller Tankers

VLCCs are expected to see sustained strength as demand remains robust while OPEC+ continues output increases and available tonnage stays tight, according to BRS Shipbrokers. Smaller tankers like suezmaxes and aframaxes previously benefited from shifts in oil trading after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but VLCCs largely missed out on those gains. Challenges remain, including accelerated newbuilding deliveries next year—48 suezmaxes, 86 aframax/LR2s, and 140 MR2s—which could impact global fleet utilization. Despite headwinds, the overall oil demand outlook is positive, with supply growth from OPEC, Brazil, Guyana, Argentina, and Canada supporting VLCC utilization. Market optimism is rising after a strong summer and September rally, with Frontline’s CEO hinting at a potential supercycle for VLCCs.

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Clean LR2 Tankers Face Earnings Pressure Amid Newbuilding Wave

The clean LR2 product tanker sector is under scrutiny as a surge in newbuilding deliveries since 2023 raises concerns of oversupply, potentially dragging earnings down. Analysts note that much of the incoming LR2 tonnage may ultimately shift into dirty petroleum product (DPP) or crude trades, creating a “shuffle” rather than a pure oversupply, as owners follow market incentives. Despite 41 new LR2 deliveries this year, the clean-trading fleet has only grown modestly, with older vessels moving into crude trades due to earnings considerations. Industry executives from Hafnia and Torm argue that around 60% of new LR2s historically end up carrying crude, and the orderbook may overstate actual clean product capacity. Nonetheless, rising fleet growth, modest demand increases, and more Suez Canal transits suggest continued downward pressure on LR2 rates, which recently fell nearly 6% week-on-week to $24,300 per day.

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Greek Owners Lead $1.3bn Tanker Buying Spree in Six Months

Greek shipowners have dominated the secondhand tanker market over the past six months, with the top-10 buyers spending more than $1.3 billion, according to Veson Nautical. MR tankers accounted for roughly 60% of these purchases, with values for modern vessels rising modestly while older ships declined sharply in price. Greece-based Naftomar led the buying spree, acquiring six MR tankers for $192 million, while other Greek owners including IMS, Polembros, and Stealth Maritime made significant investments in both modern and newbuilding resales. Non-Greek players such as UAE’s Lila Global, Denmark’s Torm, Ireland’s Ardmore, and India’s Seven Islands Shipping also participated actively, highlighting global demand for secondhand tonnage. Overall, 262 tankers totaling 28.5 million dwt have changed hands so far in 2025, representing $8.6 billion and signaling a rebound in the tanker sale-and-purchase market.

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Panama Canal Introduces More Flexible Booking System for Shippers

The Panama Canal Authority is launching a more flexible booking system that allows shippers to reserve transit in six-month blocks instead of committing for a full year. This change enables companies to better align transit schedules with seasonal demand, cargo volumes, and fleet strategies. Reservations can now be made up to 15 days in advance, with higher bids providing better access to preferred dates. The first six-month cycle begins on January 4, with the bidding round scheduled for October 28. Additionally, the canal is reinstating advanced access rules for LNG vessels operating under strict delivery schedules.

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EU ETS Deadline Could Accelerate Shipping Decarbonisation

30 September marks a critical deadline for shipowners under the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), requiring them to surrender allowances covering 40% of their 2024 emissions. Missing the deadline carries penalties exceeding €100 per tonne of CO₂, in addition to the cost of unsubmitted allowances, making compliance a key priority for maritime operators. The EU ETS overlaps with the new FuelEU Maritime Regulation, adding complexity for firms with large vessel carbon footprints. London law firm HFW notes that the combined regulatory pressure could drive shipping companies to accelerate decarbonisation efforts and improve operational efficiency. Early adoption of sustainable practices will give shipowners a competitive advantage as global maritime policy shifts from voluntary carbon reduction to mandatory accountability.

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Bernhard Schulte to Manage World’s First Ammonia Bunkering Vessel

Bernhard Schulte Shipmanagement (BSM) will operate the world’s first ammonia bunkering vessel, ordered by Japanese trader Itochu and built by Sasaki Shipbuilding in Hiroshima, with delivery slated for 2027. The 5,000-cbm vessel will serve the Singapore bunkering hub, and trials are expected toward the end of 2027 with full operations in 2028. BSM has been developing expertise in ammonia handling and cryogenic bunkering since 2022, including training courses and an ammonia bunkering simulator set to open in Kochi, India, in 2026. Ammonia as a marine fuel could reduce CO2-equivalent emissions by up to 90% compared with gas oil engines, supporting maritime decarbonisation efforts. Japanese shipowner NYK is also developing an ammonia bunkering vessel, and Itochu is pursuing ammonia-powered bulkers with K Line in Japan.