Oil Holds Steady as OPEC+ Opts for Modest October Output Hike

Oil prices steadied Monday after OPEC+ agreed to raise output by a modest 137,000 barrels per day in October, a slower pace than recent months, reflecting caution over a looming supply glut. Brent traded below $66 while WTI hovered near $62, with traders noting the decision had largely been priced in after futures fell last week. The International Energy Agency forecasts a record surplus next year, with Goldman Sachs predicting Brent could drop into the low-$50s per barrel, adding to pressure from U.S. trade tariffs. Analysts said Brent’s stabilization near $65 suggests the market may have already tested its technical floor. OPEC+ stressed that further additions to supply remain contingent on “evolving market conditions,” with some members constrained by limited spare capacity or required to offset prior oversupply.

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OPEC+ to Boost Oil Output in October, Signaling Market Share Priority Over Prices

OPEC+ agreed on Sunday to raise oil production by 137,000 bpd starting in October, a slower pace than the 555,000 bpd hikes in August and September and 411,000 bpd in July and June. The move marks the early unwinding of a 1.65 million bpd cut, more than a year ahead of schedule, following the earlier reversal of a 2.5 million bpd cut since April. Analysts said the small volume increase carries a strong signal that OPEC+—led by Saudi Arabia—is prioritizing regaining market share, even at the risk of softer prices. Oil prices have already fallen 15% this year to about $65 per barrel, though sanctions on Russia and Iran have helped prevent a collapse. With most members near production capacity, only Saudi Arabia and the UAE have room to add significant barrels, leaving future increases dependent on their output.

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EU Reaffirms 2028 Deadline to Phase Out Russian Oil Despite Trump Pressure

EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen said the bloc remains committed to phasing out Russian oil imports by January 1, 2028, rejecting the need to accelerate the deadline despite U.S. President Donald Trump urging Europe to halt purchases. Hungary and Slovakia, which still import about 200,000–250,000 bpd of Russian crude via the Druzhba pipeline, continue to oppose the plan, citing price and supply risks. Jorgensen noted the proposals can be passed by reinforced majority, meaning they do not require unanimity, reducing the ability of dissenting states to block them. While EU oil imports from Russia are shrinking, gas dependence remains higher, with about 13% of EU gas supplies still expected to come from Russia this year, down from 45% before 2022. Brussels will also discuss with Washington how to deliver on the EU’s pledge to buy $250 billion annually of U.S. energy supplies, though analysts doubt the target’s feasibility.

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India Defies U.S. Tariffs, Vows to Keep Buying Russian Oil for Economic Advantage

Indian Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said India will continue purchasing Russian oil despite U.S. President Donald Trump’s 50% tariff on Indian imports, stressing it remains the most economical option for the world’s third-largest oil importer. India has become the largest buyer of Russian seaborne crude, capitalizing on discounted supplies shunned by Europe and the U.S. Sitharaman emphasized that oil and refined fuel imports account for about 25% of India’s overall imports, making cost-effective sourcing essential. U.S. officials have pressed India to stop buying Russian oil, back the dollar, and resume trade talks, warning that tariffs will remain until compliance. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s participation alongside Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping in the so-called “Axis of Upheaval” summit in Tianjin highlighted India’s growing rift with Washington.

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Traders Watch China’s Crude Buying as Global Oil Glut Looms

Oil traders are closely monitoring China’s crude purchases as the market approaches a long-anticipated global supply glut. Earlier in the year, China aggressively bought crude for both strategic reserves and domestic demand, but stockpiles are only about 50% full, leaving room for further accumulation. Analysts say Beijing’s next moves could determine whether oversupply pressures build in U.S. and European storage hubs, limiting potential price declines. While global production rises in countries like Brazil, Guyana, and Canada, OECD inventories remain relatively low, suggesting the glut has yet to materialize fully. A significant price drop may be required to trigger a major buying spree from China, which could absorb excess supply and stabilize markets.

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Iraq Explores Oil Storage Partnerships with Exxon in Asia and Key Markets

Iraq is negotiating with Exxon Mobil to secure oil storage facilities in Asia and other strategic markets to ensure uninterrupted crude supply. The country’s state oil marketing company, SOMO, is considering sites in Singapore, Europe, and the U.S., aiming to maintain stable deliveries during crises. This move is partly in response to regional tensions, such as risks around the Strait of Hormuz, which could disrupt exports. SOMO is evaluating whether to build new storage or leverage existing refinery infrastructure to meet its strategic needs. Similar to Iraq, Saudi Arabia has previously expanded overseas storage to safeguard exports amid geopolitical risks.

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Hafnia Eyes Shipping Consolidation After Major Torm Investment

Hafnia CEO Mikael Skov highlighted the benefits of industry consolidation after the company invested over $300 million to acquire stock from Oaktree Capital in Torm, his former employer. Skov emphasized that consolidation can unlock shareholder value, improve profitability, enhance capital allocation, and make the tanker sector more attractive to institutional investors. While Hafnia has made no official merger decision, the investment has sparked speculation about a potential Hafnia-Torm mega merger, which could create one of the world’s largest tanker owners. The combined fleet would exceed 300 vessels with a market capitalization above $5 billion, surpassing peers like Scorpio Tankers. Hafnia chairman Andreas Sohmen-Pao, known for major shipping consolidation deals, remains a key private investor supporting the strategy.