Oil Rises as Trump Prepares Response to Russia-Ukraine Strikes

Oil prices closed higher Thursday, with Brent up $0.57 to $68.62 and WTI up $0.45 to $64.60, reversing early losses after the White House said President Trump was displeased by Russia’s missile and drone attacks on Ukraine that killed at least 21 people in Kyiv. Ukraine retaliated with drone strikes on two Russian oil refineries, while Trump is expected to make a statement later in the day. Markets were also watching India’s reaction after Trump doubled tariffs on Indian imports to 50%, as Russian oil exports to India are set to increase in September despite U.S. pressure. Supply concerns persist as OPEC+ plans to raise September output by 547,000 bpd, while weaker post–Labor Day demand is expected to lift inventories. Russian crude flows to Hungary and Slovakia through the Druzhba pipeline resumed after a Ukrainian attack halted shipments last week, adding further downward pressure on prices.

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India to Boost Russian Oil Imports by up to 300,000 bpd in September Despite U.S. Tariffs

India plans to raise Russian oil imports in September by 10–20%, or 150,000–300,000 bpd, from August levels as Russia offers larger discounts of $2–$3 per barrel to Brent. In August, India imported about 1.5 million bpd of Russian crude, equal to 1.5% of global supply and covering 40% of its domestic oil needs. The increase follows Ukrainian drone strikes that shut about 17% of Russia’s refining capacity, forcing Moscow to export more crude. The U.S., which raised tariffs on Indian imports to 50%, has accused New Delhi of profiteering, while India counters that Western nations still trade Russian goods. Analysts warn that halting India’s Russian imports could cut global supply by 1 million bpd and push oil prices toward $100 per barrel, though such a move is seen as unlikely without a global ban.

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Russia’s Ust-Luga Oil Port to Run at Half Capacity After Drone Damage

Russia’s Ust-Luga oil export terminal will operate at around 350,000 bpd in September, about half of its usual throughput, after Ukrainian drone strikes damaged pipeline infrastructure. The attacks also hit the Unecha pumping station in Bryansk, a key hub for crude flows to Ust-Luga, and disrupted supplies via the Druzhba pipeline to Belarus, Slovakia, and Hungary. Slovakia reported that test-mode deliveries via Druzhba have resumed, but no timeline for full restoration at Ust-Luga has been given. The lost capacity will see crude volumes diverted to Russia’s Primorsk and Novorossiisk ports to minimize export losses. Russian authorities and pipeline operator Transneft have not commented publicly on the extent of the damage or repair progress.

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Saudi Arabia Poised to Cut October Oil Prices to Asia Amid Weak Demand

Saudi Arabia may lower October official selling prices (OSPs) for its flagship Arab Light crude by $0.40–$0.70 per barrel, to around $2.50–$2.80, after September’s five-month highs dampened demand, according to a Reuters survey of five refiners. Prices for Arab Extra Light, Medium, and Heavy are also expected to fall $0.40–$0.60 per barrel, tracking a $0.55 drop in Dubai’s cash-to-swap premium this month. Elevated Saudi prices in recent months prompted some Chinese refiners to shift to discounted Russian oil, while other Asian buyers turned to U.S. crude, with Indian refiners resuming Russian imports as well. Analysts say a significant cut is needed to attract demand, especially as OPEC+ accelerates output hikes, further pressuring global prices. Saudi OSPs, usually announced around the 5th of each month, influence about 9 million barrels per day of crude exports to Asia and set the benchmark for regional producers like Iran, Kuwait, and Iraq.

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Exxon Projects 20% Surge in Gas Demand, Stable Oil Use Through 2050

ExxonMobil forecasts global natural gas demand rising over 20% by 2050, driven by coal-to-gas switching in industry and higher electricity needs in developing nations. The company expects oil demand to plateau after 2030 but remain above 100 million bpd through mid-century, with oil and gas together making up 55% of the energy mix in 2050. Exxon plans to boost production by 18% in the next five years, outpacing peers with a growth-focused strategy. Gasoline demand is projected to fall 25% as EV adoption accelerates, while distillates for transport and aviation stay robust. Exxon sees CO₂ emissions at 27 billion tons in 2050, a 25% drop from today but still over twice the UN’s climate goal, urging policy and technology advances to bridge the gap.

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China’s Oil Majors Pivot to New Fuels and High-End Chemicals Amid Falling Fuel Demand

China’s state oil giants, PetroChina, Sinopec, and CNOOC, are shifting downstream operations from gasoline and diesel toward alternative fuels, specialized chemicals, and high-value compounds in response to weakening oil demand and electrification trends. Sinopec’s first-half net income fell 36%, led by a 59% drop in refining profits, while PetroChina saw declines of 19% in its combined refining and chemicals segments. Both companies are expanding cleaner gas and EV infrastructure, with PetroChina reporting a 59% rise in LNG refueling volumes and 213% growth in electric charging stations in H1. Plans include phasing out outdated facilities, controlling chemical investments in the next five-year plan, and focusing on products for aircraft, robotics, batteries, and high-voltage insulation. Despite downstream restructuring, all three majors remain committed to upstream production to meet Beijing’s energy security targets, balancing oil output stability with rising gas production.

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CMB.Tech Eyes Fleet Expansion After Golden Ocean Merger

Belgian shipping giant CMB.Tech, after merging with Golden Ocean Group, now commands a 250-vessel fleet and plans to explore growth opportunities across its five divisions, including tankers, bulkers, boxships, wind shipping, and chemical carriers. CEO Alex Saverys emphasized fleet modernization, noting the recent sale of the 164,700-dwt suezmax Sofia for $40 million, generating a $20.4 million capital gain. The company posted a net loss of $7.6 million in Q2 2025, down from a $184.4 million profit a year ago, partly due to lower proceeds from ship sales ($57.3 million vs $95 million in 2024). Saverys signaled readiness to pursue modern secondhand or newbuilding vessels while being selective on pricing and market conditions. Analysts at Fearnley Securities have identified 34 older vessels in the fleet as potential sales candidates, with a combined value of around $1.1 billion.