2025.08.27

Russia raises August oil export plan after drone strikes disrupt refineries

Russia has increased its crude oil export plan from western ports by 200,000 barrels per day in August due to disruptions caused by Ukrainian drone attacks on refineries. However, ongoing strikes and repair schedules are causing uncertainties in export planning, potentially leading to delays and volume revisions. The attacks on Russian refineries this month have led to shutdowns affecting 17% of national processing capacity. The Druzhba pipeline and Unecha pumping station were also targeted, further limiting Russia's export capacity. As a result, vessel availability at the end of August is constrained, which could reduce exports by up to 500,000 bpd. The Ust-Luga port is currently operating at half of its capacity, with volumes being diverted to Novorossiisk and Primorsk. Despite these challenges, eastern exports remain largely unaffected.

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Oil falls 2% from nearly three-week high; focus on tariffs, Russian supply

On Tuesday, oil prices dropped 2% due to concerns about U.S. tariffs, the conflict in Ukraine, and potential disruptions to Russian fuel supplies. Brent crude fell to $67.22 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate dropped to $63.25. Analysts predict prices will remain volatile due to uncertainty surrounding the Ukrainian conflict and trade tensions. The recent rally was driven by supply risks following Ukraine’s strikes on Russian energy infrastructure and the threat of additional U.S. sanctions on Russian oil. Russia has increased its crude oil export plan in response to disruptions caused by Ukrainian attacks. President Trump has threatened to impose further sanctions on Russia if progress towards a peace deal isn't made soon. Indian exports may also face higher U.S. duties. Analysts warn that increased tariffs on India could further hinder Russian export flows impacted by recent Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries.

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Hanwha Ocean pumps $70m into US yard to ramp up capacity

Hanwha Ocean plans to invest $70 million to expand Hanwha Philly shipyard in Pennsylvania in order to increase annual shipbuilding capacity from 1.5 vessels to 10 by 2035. The goal is to boost sales volume by tenfold to $4 billion. Last year, Hanwha Group acquired Philly Shipyard for $100 million to secure US Navy contracts. The recent $250 million deal to build an LNG carrier for Hanwha Shipping marks the first US contract in almost 50 years. Hanwha Philly will handle US Coast Guard certification and compliance, while most of the construction will take place in South Korea. The investment is part of South Korea's commitment to inject $350 billion into US projects, with $150 billion designated for the shipbuilding sector. President Trump aims to strengthen the US shipbuilding industry and reduce China's dominance in the global market.

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Dark fleet tankers dominate Indian demolition beach

Indian ship recyclers are taking advantage of discounted prices on sanctioned tankers, including those accused of carrying sanctioned oil out of Iran or Russia. Recently, two tankers, one sanctioned by the US and another on a suspect list, were beached at Alang, with a third on the way. Despite the risks of dealing with these vessels, some buyers are drawn by the low prices, with Indian scrap prices for tanker tonnage hovering around $440 per ldt. Deals involving these vessels have proven difficult due to potential seizure of funds by US clearing houses, leading to the switch to alternative currencies. However, many South Asian recyclers are hesitant to handle such vessels due to associated risks. While no pricing details have been disclosed for the Livia, it is believed to have been sold at a discounted level like the Otaria, which was sold for $380 per ldt. On the other hand, the Salome I was reportedly sold for the standard $440 per ldt.

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China's carbon market to introduce absolute emissions caps from 2027

China's cabinet announced that the country will tighten its carbon trading market by introducing absolute emissions caps in certain industries by 2027. The State Council's opinion stated that the absolute caps will be phased in gradually, with the nationwide carbon market expected to be fully established by 2030. Currently, carbon emissions allowances are based on intensity benchmarks that decrease over time, but will shift to include a mix of free and paid allowances. Firms will need to purchase additional allowances if they exceed their quota, while they can sell surplus allowances if they emit below their limit. The ETS will expand to major carbon emitting industries by 2027, although the specific sectors were not specified. Analysts predict that industries such as chemicals, petrochemicals, papermaking, and domestic aviation will be included. Despite previous expansions to include sectors like steel and cement, the impact on carbon emissions has been minimal due to the large number of free allowances provided. The ETS was initially launched in July 2021 and focused on the power sector before this latest announcement.