Oil Gains 1% on Russia-Ukraine Tensions and Strong U.S. Crude Demand

Oil prices rose about 1% on Thursday, driven by stalled Russia-Ukraine peace talks and stronger-than-expected U.S. demand. Brent crude settled at $67.67 a barrel and WTI at $63.52 a barrel, both marking two-week highs. Geopolitical tensions, including Russian airstrikes near the EU border and Ukraine’s attack on a Russian refinery, added a risk premium to the market. U.S. crude inventories fell by 6 million barrels, significantly more than analysts’ 1.8 million-barrel forecast, highlighting robust domestic demand. Investors also monitored the Jackson Hole economic conference for potential signals on a U.S. interest rate cut.

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VLCC Rates Gain Momentum Despite Off-Book Chartering, Fearnleys Warns

Fearnleys highlighted that some charterers are trying to slow VLCC rate momentum by fixing ships off-the-books, marking the risks of a lack of transparency. Despite these efforts, VLCC earnings remain strong, with Middle East Gulf to East routes potentially reaching Worldscale 60 for September cargoes. Increased US Gulf and Brazilian exports are also supporting demand and balancing tonnage availability. Clarksons reported a VLCC fleet average of $45,300 per day, up 10% week-on-week and 12% month-on-month, with specific routes to China showing gains of 4–12%. The Baltic Exchange’s VLCC assessment rose to $40,913 per day, marking over a 20% improvement from last year.

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India and Russia Pledge Closer Trade, Energy Ties Amid U.S. Tariff Pressures

India and Russia agreed to strengthen trade ties during a meeting of their foreign ministers in Moscow, despite U.S. tariffs of up to 50% on Indian goods for buying Russian oil. Both countries emphasized cooperation in the hydrocarbon sector, including Russian oil supply to India and joint energy projects in Russia’s Far East and Arctic regions. Indian Foreign Minister Jaishankar highlighted the need to address non-tariff barriers to expand Indian exports of pharmaceuticals, agriculture, and textiles to Russia. Russia has shifted its oil exports from Europe to India and China following Western sanctions over the Ukraine conflict. The two nations reaffirmed their intent to grow bilateral trade and maintain stable energy cooperation.

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US Sanctions Greek Shipper Over Role in Iran’s Shadow Oil Fleet

The US Treasury Department sanctioned Greek shipper Antonios Margaritis and a network of companies in Greece and the Marshall Islands for facilitating Iranian oil transport, expanding Washington’s maximum-pressure campaign on Tehran. The action follows the largest Iran sanctions move in seven years, which targeted a network linked to oil tycoon Hossein Shamkhani, son of a senior adviser to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Margaritis was accused of using his decades of shipping experience to illicitly move and sell Iranian petroleum. Companies tied to him, including Marant Shipping and Trading S.A., Square Tanker Management Ltd., Comford Management S.A., and United Chartering S.A., were also blacklisted. The step highlights US efforts to clamp down on Iran’s shadow fleet circumventing sanctions.

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UK Blacklists Iranian Oil Tycoon and London Hedge Fund in Sanctions Push

The UK has sanctioned Iranian oil magnate Hossein Shamkhani, his trading firms Admiral Shipping Group and Milavous Group, and London-based hedge fund Ocean Leonid Investments. Shamkhani, whose father advises Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is accused of supporting hostile Iranian activities aimed at destabilizing the UK and other countries, including Israel and Ukraine. The action aligns with recent US and EU crackdowns targeting the same network, which Washington previously labeled its biggest Iran sanctions escalation in nearly a decade. A Bloomberg investigation revealed Shamkhani’s network has been instrumental in exporting Russian and Iranian oil while using hedge fund structures in London, Dubai, and Geneva to manage profits. The UK Treasury said Thursday’s move underscores its commitment to countering Tehran’s global influence operations.

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Angola’s Oil Output Falls Below 1 Million bpd, Budget Risks Mount

Angola’s crude oil production slipped below 1 million bpd in July, falling to 998,757 bpd — the lowest since March 2023 — marking the first sub-million output since the country quit OPEC in 2023. The drop poses a major challenge to Angola’s budget, which is based on oil prices above $70 per barrel, as current prices remain weaker. Facing fiscal pressure, Angola is weighing potential IMF assistance while seeking new investments from majors like Equinor, Chevron, and TotalEnergies to sustain production. Despite these efforts, natural decline in mature fields is unavoidable, with Oil Minister Diamantino Pedro Azevedo calling it the government’s “biggest challenge.” Angola had expected 1.07 million bpd in July but is now planning further export cuts in October to 994,000 bpd, according to ANPG data.

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Russian Regions Face Gasoline Shortages as Ukrainian Strikes Hit Refineries

Russia is facing gasoline shortages in several regions, including occupied parts of Ukraine, following intensified Ukrainian strikes on refineries such as Novokuibyshevsk, Syzran, Ryazan, and Volgograd. Despite Moscow’s July 28 ban on gasoline exports to stabilize domestic supply during peak summer demand, logistical bottlenecks, refinery maintenance, and low stocks are worsening the crisis. In Primorye, motorists queued for kilometers as fuel carriers were delayed for hours by roadworks, while similar shortages were reported in Crimea and Zaporizhzhia due to logistics and attack risks. Local officials, including Crimea’s Sergei Aksyonov, warned that shortages could last another month but would not be fully resolved until the war ends. The disruptions highlight both Ukraine’s impact on Russia’s energy infrastructure and the strain on domestic fuel distribution.