Oil Prices Drop as Hopes Rise for Russia-Ukraine Peace Talks

Oil prices fell on Tuesday amid expectations that talks between Russia, Ukraine, and the U.S. could ease sanctions on Russian crude and boost global supply, with Brent closing at $65.79 per barrel (-$0.81) and WTI at $62.35 per barrel (-$1.07). The potential meeting between Presidents Putin, Zelenskiy, and Trump has slightly eased geopolitical tensions, reducing concerns over supply disruptions. Analysts noted that Chinese refiners are buying 15 cargoes of Russian oil for October–November delivery as Indian demand wanes, further increasing available supply. Despite the market optimism, record short positions in oil futures could trigger volatility if a ceasefire fails to materialize. TD Securities projects that easing tensions and fewer sanctions could drive prices toward $58/bbl in Q4 2025–Q1 2026.

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China Snaps Up Russian Urals Crude as U.S. Tariffs Curb India’s Purchases

Chinese refiners have sharply increased purchases of Russia’s Urals crude, seizing discounted cargoes left behind by India as the U.S. doubles tariffs on New Delhi’s imports. So far in August, China has imported nearly 75,000 bpd of Urals, almost double the year-to-date average of 40,000 bpd, while India’s imports have fallen to 400,000 bpd, down from an average of 1.18 million bpd. Analysts note that Urals, shipped from Russia’s Baltic and Black Sea ports, remains competitive against Middle Eastern grades, making it attractive to Chinese refiners. Reports suggest China has already booked 10 to 15 cargoes for October and November delivery, with at least two tankers, Georgy Maslov and Zenith, idling off Zhoushan near Zhejiang Petroleum & Chemical’s base. Experts warn that without China absorbing these barrels, Russia may be forced to increase discounts further to secure new buyers.

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CMB.Tech May Offload 34 Older Ships Worth $1.1B Following Golden Ocean Merger

After merging with bulker owner Golden Ocean Group, CMB.Tech could sell 34 non-core and older vessels worth an estimated $1.08–1.1bn, analysts say. The combined fleet will total 251 ships, and Fearnley Securities expects the divestments to improve liquidity and potentially enable dividend payments. The likely sales include eight older capesizes ($198m), 10 kamsarmaxes ($191m), four panamaxes ($70m), five VLCCs ($320m), and seven suezmaxes ($303m). Analysts anticipate the owner will prioritize retaining capesize and newcastlemax bulkers while letting kamsarmaxes and panamaxes go. CMB.Tech has already been linked to a sale of three bulkers to Oman’s Asyad Shipping as part of this strategy.

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Asyad Expands Fleet with VLCCs, LNG Carriers, and Bulkers Despite Profit Dip

Oman’s state-backed Asyad Energy has taken delivery of its second VLCC, Landbridge Wisdom (renamed Awabi), completing a $206m deal for two tankers as part of its $2.7bn five-year fleet expansion plan. The company now operates about 85 vessels after also acquiring product tankers this year, with plans to add more ships—including two LNG carriers, four crude tankers, and two product carriers—for service in 2026–27. Earlier this year, Asyad said it aims to grow its fleet by 30 vessels to capture rising demand on routes to Europe, Japan, and South Korea, with over $1bn already committed. Despite the expansion, net profit for H1 2025 fell to OMR 20.2m ($52.5m) from OMR 27.7m a year earlier, while revenue slipped to OMR 164.6m. Meanwhile, reports linked Asyad to the $165m purchase of three Japanese-built bulkers from CMB.Tech, though the seller denied the claim.

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Guangdong Reforms Threaten to Deepen China’s LNG Demand Decline

China’s LNG imports have already fallen 19% in the first seven months of 2025, including a 6.7% drop in July, and new market reforms in Guangdong may further reduce demand. The province, with an economy larger than South Korea’s and the biggest user of gas-fired power in China, will now increase payments for standby capacity while cutting subsidies for actual fuel consumption. Analysts at BloombergNEF warn this could discourage plants from running turbines, lowering utilization hours and clouding LNG’s outlook. Although natural gas accounted for only 3.3% of China’s total power generation last year, Guangdong alone generated more gas-fired power than the next four provinces combined. The changes come as China seeks to rely more on renewables and domestic production, leaving LNG demand uncertain despite its critical role as backup power.

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Trafigura’s Decarbonisation Head Steps Down Ahead of Crucial IMO Carbon Levy Vote

Rasmus Bach Nielsen, Trafigura’s head of fuel decarbonisation and a leading advocate for green shipping, is stepping down just weeks before the International Maritime Organization’s key October vote on a global carbon levy. Over his five years in the role, Nielsen championed carbon pricing to make low and zero-carbon marine fuels competitive, helping kick-start momentum toward a levy despite opposition from oil-producing nations and the Trump administration. He joined Trafigura in 2014, previously oversaw a 35-tanker newbuilding program, and played a pivotal role in founding the Global Maritime Forum and chairing the Sea Cargo Charter. Although leaving amicably, he emphasized that green fuels remain too costly without carbon pricing, but his departure does not indicate any policy shift by Trafigura.