Oil Prices Rise on Trump-Zelenskiy Talks and Renewed Supply Concerns

Oil prices climbed about 1% on Monday, with Brent futures up $0.75 to $66.60 a barrel and WTI up $0.62 to $63.42, as investors reacted to U.S. President Donald Trump’s meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy following an inconclusive U.S.-Russia summit. Trump signaled alignment with Moscow by urging Kyiv to give up hopes of regaining Crimea or joining NATO, suggesting progress toward a peace deal rather than a ceasefire first. Ukraine escalated drone strikes on Russian energy infrastructure in the Tambov region, disrupting supplies and lending support to oil prices. U.S. trade adviser Peter Navarro reignited concerns about global supply by demanding India stop its Russian crude purchases, accusing New Delhi of funding Moscow’s war. Investors are also closely watching Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming Jackson Hole remarks and developments in Middle East peace efforts, including Hamas’s acceptance of a 60-day ceasefire with Israel.

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Trump Pushes for Putin-Zelenskiy Summit as U.S. Seeks Peace Deal

President Trump announced plans to arrange a meeting between Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskiy, followed by a trilateral summit including himself, as Washington intensifies efforts to broker an end to the war. Zelenskiy welcomed U.S. commitments on security guarantees and direct territorial negotiations with Russia, while Trump suggested Moscow might release prisoners as a goodwill gesture. The White House talks, joined by key European leaders, focused on security assurances and large-scale arms deals, underscoring unity behind Ukraine even as Trump softened earlier demands for a ceasefire and new sanctions. Though the mood was positive, Trump’s suggestion that Kyiv could end the war by making concessions highlighted risks of territorial losses for Ukraine. Meanwhile, Russia continued attacks in eastern Ukraine, killing civilians in Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia.

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Russian Oil Flows to Hungary and Slovakia Halted After Reported Ukrainian Strike

Oil deliveries to Hungary and Slovakia via the Druzhba pipeline were halted Monday after what Budapest said was a Ukrainian attack on the network, though Kyiv did not confirm responsibility. Hungary, one of the few EU states still heavily reliant on Russian crude, condemned the disruption as a threat to its energy security, while Russia’s deputy energy minister said repairs were underway with no timeline for resumption. The stoppage coincided with President Trump’s planned talks with Ukrainian President Zelenskiy and European leaders in Washington over a possible peace deal. Slovakia’s pipeline operator confirmed the suspension but said pumping within its territory continued as planned, while Hungary’s MOL reassured that regional supply remains secure. The incident follows earlier Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, including a March attack on a Druzhba metering station and recent drone strikes in Bryansk.

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China’s Refined Oil Exports Surge to 13-Month High

China’s exports of refined products, including diesel, gasoline, aviation fuel, and marine fuel, rose 7.1% year on year to 5.34 million tons in July, reaching the highest monthly total since June 2024. Diesel exports surged 53.2% to 820,000 tons, gasoline exports rose 18.6% to 930,000 tons, and aviation fuel exports increased 10.9% to 1.97 million tons. Despite these monthly gains, year-to-date exports show mixed trends, with diesel down 37.7% and gasoline down 15.6%, while aviation fuel is up 4.3% compared with the same period last year. Meanwhile, China’s LNG imports fell 6.7% year on year to 5.44 million tons in July, though this represented an increase from June and the highest monthly level since January.

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Nanjing Tanker Reenters Aframax Market with Newbuild Orders

Nanjing Tanker is returning to the aframax segment after nearly two decades, ordering two aframax crude/product carriers from Dalian Shipbuilding Industry Co (DSIC) with expected delivery by October 2028. The new vessels will use conventional fuel and comply with IMO Tier III and EEDI Phase III standards. Nanjing Tanker, a China Merchants Group unit, had exited the aframax business in 2006 after selling its last two aframax ships. The company currently operates 75 vessels, including crude, product, chemical, and ethylene carriers, and has 10 newbuildings on order ranging from MR tankers to chemical carriers, with deliveries scheduled between 2025 and 2028. The project’s price is estimated at $72–74 million per aframax.

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Aframax Cargoes Cut as Black Sea CPC Terminal Undergoes Maintenance

Aframax loadings of Kazakhstan’s CPC crude have been removed from the September programme at the Black Sea CPC terminal near Novorossiysk due to maintenance, leaving 46 suezmax cargoes instead of the previous mix of 41 suezmax and 11 aframax stems in August. Traders cited issues with a SPM system as a reason for the cancellations or consolidation of aframax cargoes into larger suezmax loads, with the terminal prioritizing suezmax vessels. While CPC crude exports remain strong and unsanctioned, trade patterns have shifted: Asian-bound shipments have fallen sharply, while exports to Europe surged in June, driven by rising freight costs and changing price spreads. Lower freight rates in early 2025 had made long-haul Asian shipments more viable, but higher rates in the second quarter have reduced these flows.

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Gas Demand Falls at Two Major U.S. LNG Plants, Pressuring Prices

Natural gas demand at two of the largest U.S. LNG export plants dropped sharply on Monday, signaling potential outages. Cheniere’s Sabine Pass facility in Texas, typically consuming up to 4.5 bcf/day, fell to 3.7 bcf, while Sempra’s Cameron plant in Louisiana dropped from 2 bcf/day to 1.3 bcf, LSEG data showed. The decline pulled overall U.S. LNG feedgas demand to 14.7 bcf, the lowest in two months. Neither Cheniere nor Sempra provided details. The reduced consumption weighed on U.S. natural gas futures, with September contracts easing about 1% to $2.90 per MMBtu on the NYMEX. The plants—Sabine Pass, the nation’s largest, and Cameron, the fourth-largest—are central to maintaining U.S. leadership in global LNG exports.

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Sanctioned Arctic LNG 2 Cargoes Shift East Toward Asia

Four LNG tankers carrying cargoes from Russia’s sanctioned Arctic LNG 2 project are sailing east toward Asia, ship-tracking data LSEG shows. The Christophe De Margerie is navigating the Northern Sea Route after loading on August 9, while the Voskhod and Zarya, previously idling near the plant, began moving east on August 15. Another tanker, Iris, which initially headed west after a June 26 loading, reversed course in July and is now also sailing east. The tankers are subject to U.S. sanctions targeting Russia’s energy revenues, complicating trade and ownership transparency. Arctic LNG 2, 60% owned by Novatek, was designed to produce 19.8m tons annually but faces severe challenges under sanctions, with earlier cargoes redirected to Russian storage hubs in Murmansk and Kamchatka.

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Trump Administration Pushes Back Against IMO’s Net-Zero Shipping Plan

The US has formally urged IMO member states to reject the Net-Zero Framework aimed at decarbonizing the shipping sector, calling it a de facto global carbon tax that would impose steep costs on shipping and cruise industries. The Trump administration criticized the framework for ignoring transitional fuels, overestimating revenue, and burdening consumers, and signaled potential retaliation against nations that support it. A prior joint statement from four cabinet members warned that the US would explore “remedies” to protect its interests. Smaller nations dependent on trade with the US are particularly vulnerable to potential tariffs, though it remains unclear whether Washington will take concrete action beyond opposition. Saudi Arabia has backed the US stance, arguing that the framework exceeds the IMO’s Marpol mandate and lacks precedent for imposing financial contributions or penalties.