Oil Prices Steady as Markets Await US-Russia Peace Talks

Brent crude closed up $0.04 at $66.63 per barrel, while U.S. WTI rose $0.08 to $63.96 after last week’s 4% drop, as traders await the August 15 meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss ending the Ukraine war. Trump has warned that Russian oil buyers, particularly India, could face secondary sanctions if no peace deal is reached, though recent tariffs targeted only India. UBS cut its year-end Brent forecast from $68 to $62, citing increased South American supply and resilient sanctioned output, while OPEC’s July production rose modestly due to Iraqi cuts and Kurdish oilfield disruptions. Analysts say oil markets are caught between limited OPEC output growth and the possibility of a Ukraine ceasefire that could boost Russian exports. Meanwhile, Exxon Mobil’s Guyana consortium began production at its fourth FPSO four months ahead of schedule.

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Tanker Market Surges Amid Rising Russian Oil Exports Ahead of Trump-Putin Summit

Russian oil exports are nearing multi-month highs, with forecasts of 11.4 million barrels on August 11 and 12.5 million barrels on August 12, the highest in five years. The upcoming Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska could significantly impact the tanker market, depending on whether sanctions on Russia are eased or tightened. Currently, global seaborne crude exports are at record levels, with 48.4 million bpd of crude and 30.8 million bpd of products, 12% and 9% higher than last year, respectively. Tanker rates have risen sharply, with VLCC rates nearly 41% above last week at about $42,600 per day and Suezmax rates up over 5% to $49,000 per day. The U.S. has imposed tariffs on Indian goods in response to India’s continued Russian crude purchases, with India receiving an estimated 4.3 million barrels on August 12, making it Russia’s second-largest oil customer after China.

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Trump Extends U.S.–China Tariff Truce 90 Days, Avoiding 54% Levy Hike

President Donald Trump has extended the 90-day tariff truce with China into early November, preventing U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods from surging to at least 54% and maintaining current rates at 30% versus China’s 10%. The agreement, originally reached in May, also continues eased export restrictions on rare earth magnets, with shipments to the U.S. rising to 353 tons in June from 46 tons in May after Beijing’s earlier controls. The extension, negotiated in July talks in Stockholm, comes as both sides address unresolved disputes over fentanyl-related tariffs, Chinese purchases of sanctioned oil, and U.S. business access in China. U.S. companies like Nvidia and AMD have secured export licenses for certain AI chips by agreeing to remit 15% of related China sales to the U.S. government, though advanced chip exports remain contentious. The truce could pave the way for a Trump–Xi meeting in late October, amid broader U.S. efforts to balance trade stability with strategic export controls on critical technologies.

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Saudi Arabia to Cut September Crude Oil Shipments to China After Price Hike

Saudi Arabia’s crude oil exports to China will drop to about 43 million barrels in September, equal to 1.43 million bpd, down from 1.65 million bpd in August, after state oil giant Saudi Aramco raised prices. Major Chinese buyers such as Sinopec, its Fujian Refinery joint venture with Aramco, PetroChina, and Shenghong Petrochemical are reducing liftings. In contrast, several Indian refiners received full allocations for September and did not seek additional supply, despite uncertainties over Russian crude imports following U.S. President Donald Trump’s warnings. Aramco increased September crude prices for Asian buyers for the second consecutive month, setting Arab Light at a $3.20 per barrel premium over the Oman/Dubai average, the highest since April. The shift reflects both stronger pricing power from robust demand and selective supply adjustments targeting key markets.

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OPEC Production and Export Discrepancies Cloud Tanker Market Outlook

Poten & Partners highlights a disconnect between OPEC’s production quotas, actual output, and exports, making it difficult to predict tanker market trends for the rest of 2025. Despite rising production quotas since April, actual production lagged in May before surging over 1 million bpd in June, with exports hitting 600,000 bpd. The Baltic Dirty Tanker Index fluctuated from 1,102 in April to a low of 909 in mid-June and stood at 1,011 recently, reflecting market uncertainty amid geopolitical tensions like the Israel-Iran conflict. Poten & Partners cautions that increased OPEC quotas do not guarantee higher production or exports, but if realized, VLCC rates—especially on the Middle East to China route—could benefit due to limited fleet growth. 

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Massive Power Outage Disrupts Central and Southern Iraq Amid Scorching Heat

A major blackout hit central and southern Iraq on Monday after a sudden shutdown at the Hamidiya power plant in Anbar caused a fault in the national electricity transmission network. Temperatures in Baghdad soared to 47°C, worsening the impact of the outage, which spared only the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region. The electricity ministry announced that technical teams have begun gradual restoration, with full service expected within hours. Iraq, a top OPEC oil producer, has faced chronic power shortages since the 2003 Iraq War, relying heavily on Iranian natural gas imports to meet demand. Previous outages, such as in 2021 when temperatures exceeded 50°C, have sparked public protests over decades of underinvestment and mismanagement of the grid.

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Ship-Signal Spoofing Hits Russia’s Kozmino Pacific Oil Terminal, Complicating Export Tracking

Crude exports from Russia’s Kozmino oil terminal on the Pacific coast are facing increased difficulties in tracking due to electronic interference known as ship-signal spoofing. This tactic floods satellite navigation signals with false data, causing vessels to appear in impossible locations or moving at unrealistic speeds over 50 mph. Previously, spoofing had been mostly seen in geopolitical hotspots and Russian ports in the Black Sea, Baltic, and Arctic, but has now extended to Kozmino, Moscow’s key crude outlet. The cause of this interference remains unclear but may be linked to heightened security concerns following drone attacks on Russian military targets or unexplained tanker explosions, as well as pressure related to Russian oil buyers such as India. The new spoofing complicates monitoring of tanker movements and raises concerns about the security of Russian oil exports from the region.

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Russia’s Arctic LNG 2 Resumes Exports Using Fourth U.S.-Sanctioned Tanker

Russia’s Arctic LNG 2 project has resumed exports with the arrival of its fourth U.S.-sanctioned tanker, Christophe De Margerie, which berthed at the plant on August 9. The vessel, sanctioned by the U.S. Treasury in January, joins three others—Iris, Voskhod, and Zarya—that loaded cargoes earlier this year after production paused in October 2023. Arctic LNG 2, 60%-owned by Novatek, was designed to produce 19.8 million metric tons of LNG annually but has faced difficulties selling its output due to Western sanctions over the Ukraine conflict. The sanctioned vessels have not discharged their cargoes and remain in Russian waters, with potential fines for companies engaging with them. In 2023, the plant loaded eight cargoes onto sanctioned vessels, with some deliveries routed to storage facilities.

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India’s State-Owned Shipping Corp. Plans $2.3 Billion Purchase of 26 Domestic Ships to Boost Local Shipbuilding

India’s Shipping Corp. of India (SCI), the country’s largest state-owned shipping company, is preparing to buy 26 domestically built vessels in a deal worth 198.2 billion rupees ($2.3 billion). The new ships will have a combined volume of 1.18 million gross tonnes, with deliveries scheduled over several years. This purchase is part of a broader government-backed initiative involving 207 ships worth nearly 1.5 trillion rupees aimed at strengthening India’s shipbuilding industry and reducing reliance on foreign-built vessels. Currently, SCI operates a fleet of 55 ships, and this deal will significantly expand its capacity. The Indian government, which launched a 250 billion-rupee maritime fund earlier this year, targets increasing the share of locally built tankers from 5% today to 7% by 2030 and nearly 70% by 2047.