Oil Prices Slide as Trump-Putin Meeting Sparks Hopes for Ukraine Diplomacy

Oil prices fell for a sixth straight session, with Brent crude down $0.46 to $66.43 and WTI crude down $0.47 to $63.88, amid news that U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet soon. The meeting raised expectations for a diplomatic resolution to the Ukraine war, which weighed on prices already down over 9% this past week. Despite the drop, U.S. crude stockpiles fell by 3 million barrels, exceeding expectations, while Saudi Arabia raised crude prices for Asia amid tight supply. India, faces a new 25% U.S. tariff starting August 28 due to its continued imports from Russia. Meanwhile, OPEC+ announced a production increase of 547,000 bpd for September, contributing further downward pressure on prices.

___________________________________

U.S. Crude Exports Fall to Four-Year Low in July Amid Tight Domestic Supply

U.S. crude oil exports declined to about 3.1 million bpd in July, the lowest since October 2021, down from 3.6 million bpd in June, according to the U.S. EIA. Exports to Asia dropped sharply, with shipments to China at zero for the fifth consecutive month, South Korea’s imports nearly halving, and India’s falling by 46%. Exports to Europe also fell 14% to 1.6 million bpd. The price spread between WTI and Brent crude narrowed to around $3 per barrel in May and June, reducing the incentive to export. Domestic constraints included lower Canadian oil flows due to wildfires and pipeline issues, while U.S. refining activity remained high. Although trade deals with South Korea ($100 billion LNG/energy products) and the EU ($250 billion annually) may boost exports temporarily, analysts expect only a short-lived rebound, with OPEC+ planning to raise production by 547,000 bpd in September adding further supply options for global refiners.

___________________________________

Chevron-Chartered Tankers Head Back to Venezuela as U.S. License Spurs Export Restart

Following a new U.S. Treasury license, Chevron-chartered tankers Mediterranean Voyager, Canopus Voyager, and Sea Jaguar are returning toward Venezuelan waters, signaling an imminent resumption of crude exports later this month. The restricted license permits Chevron to operate in sanctioned Venezuela and export oil without making payments to the Venezuelan government. Chevron CEO Mike Wirth confirmed plans to restart limited exports in August and is negotiating with PDVSA to resume supply deals with U.S. refiner Valero Energy. Venezuela’s oil exports dropped to 727,000 barrels per day last month amid delays as joint venture partners awaited U.S. approvals. Shipping data shows the tankers’ current routes approaching Aruba, a strategic stop before delivering cargoes.

___________________________________

China’s Crude Oil Imports Surge 11.5% Year-on-Year in July Despite Monthly Slowdown

China imported 47.2 million metric tons of crude oil in July 2025, marking an 11.5% increase year-on-year, though down 5.4% from June's 49.89 million tons. This slowdown followed heavy purchases and inventory buildup by independent refiners the previous month. From January to July, total imports reached 326.57 million tons (11.25 million bpd), up 2.8% from the same period in 2024. Refinery utilization rose, driven by higher run rates from state-owned refiners, while refined fuel exports increased 7.25% to 5.34 million tons. Meanwhile, natural gas imports declined 2.1% year-on-year to 10.63 million tons.

___________________________________

Global Diesel Crunch Spurs Race to Rebuild Inventories Amid Supply Risks

The global diesel market is under pressure as inventories remain critically low worldwide, with traders rushing to replenish supplies before upcoming refinery maintenance and hurricane season further reduce output. Diesel demand is strong due to its essential role in transportation, agriculture, and heating, while geopolitical tensions—such as U.S. tariffs on India for Russian crude imports—have disrupted traditional supply flows, especially in Europe. Despite some recent increases in diesel shipments from the Middle East and Asia, stockpiles in key hubs like the U.S. Gulf Coast and Northwest Europe are still below normal levels, pushing diesel crack spreads to multi-year highs. Analysts and refiners expect sustained tightness through 2025-26 due to structural refining capacity constraints, and warn of price shocks if supply disruptions occur. While OPEC+ production hikes may ease the crunch eventually, it will take time for increased crude output to translate into diesel availability, keeping the market tight in the near term.

___________________________________

India’s State Refiners Halt Russian Crude Purchases Amid U.S. Tariff Pressure

India’s state-run oil refiners — Indian Oil Corp., Bharat Petroleum, and Hindustan Petroleum — are pausing spot purchases of Russian crude amid rising pressure from President Donald Trump, who recently doubled tariffs on all Indian exports to the U.S. as retaliation for continued Russian oil imports. On Thursday, IOC bought 5 million barrels from the U.S., Brazil, and Libya, showing a shift toward alternative sources. Although New Delhi has not officially banned Russian oil, refiners await government guidance, especially as October-loading Urals crude purchases are being reconsidered. At its peak, India imported over 2 million bpd of Russian oil, up from almost zero before the Ukraine conflict. Traders now anticipate increased demand for Middle Eastern and African crude, with potential for deeper discounts on Russian barrels and more exports redirected to China.

___________________________________

Russian Oil Prices Offered at Steep Discount to India Amid Sanctions

Russian crude, particularly the Urals grade, is being offered to Indian buyers at discounts exceeding $5 per barrel compared to Brent due to EU sanctions and US penalty threats. This price gap has widened significantly in recent weeks as state and private refiners in India adopt a more cautious approach. Despite the challenges, Indian refiners are unlikely to completely stop importing Russian oil, given its substantial 37% market share in their supply mix. Meanwhile, Indian crude imports from the US have nearly doubled since early 2025, reflecting efforts to diversify sources. Supply-side factors in Russia, including refinery maintenance, may further influence availability from August through October.

___________________________________

Sanctioned Tankers Transport Fuel for Blacklisted Nayara Energy

India’s Nayara Energy, partly Russian-owned, has exported 43,000 tonnes of petrol using the EU- and UK-sanctioned 50,000-dwt Tempest Dream, marking its first fuel shipment since being blacklisted by the EU in July. The vessel, formerly known as Unite, departed Vadinar and is heading to Sohar, Oman, though buyer details remain unconfirmed and its AIS signal has been inactive for over 40 days. A second EU-sanctioned tanker, the 51,000-dwt Sard, is also reported to be lifting 43,000 tonnes of diesel from the same port. Nayara has struggled with crude supply and refined product sales due to difficulties in chartering compliant tankers, which has impacted operations at its 400,000-bpd Vadinar refinery. Additionally, the EU-sanctioned Leruo, reportedly controlled by Seychelles-based Key Marvel, recently moved another 43,000 tonnes of diesel to Mundra.

___________________________________

Greek Tanker Delivers First Russian Naphtha to Vietnam Amid AIS Spoofing Concerns

The Greek-owned LR1 tanker Northernlight delivered Russian naphtha from Vysotsk to Vietnam’s Khanh Hoa terminal, marking the first such delivery amid Moscow’s push to find new energy markets. The vessel discharged in Vietnam and then headed to China to offload the remainder. Naphtha, essential for petrochemical production, remains in demand, and such shipments are allowed under the G7 price cap if properly priced. Separately, analysts flagged AIS manipulation by VLCCs like Norns and Crystal, which masked their actual discharge at Venezuela’s Jose Terminal, despite reporting different locations and activities. These developments underscore Russia’s increasingly complex energy trade routes and the growing role of satellite tracking in verifying global oil flows.

___________________________________

Suezmax Rates Surge in West Africa, Prompting Shift Toward VLCCs

Suezmax rates in West Africa nearly doubled in a week, hitting $52,600 per day for non-eco, scrubberless ships—driven by tight vessel availability and increased demand, according to Clarksons. The rate surge pushed charterers to consider VLCCs, with Sinokor’s 299,900-dwt Caspar fixed by Repsol for a West Africa–Europe run at $44,448 per day, the highest deal recorded on Wednesday. In the Black Sea, suezmaxes bound for the Mediterranean saw smaller gains, reaching $61,700 per day, up 46% week-on-week. Meanwhile, VLCC earnings are also rising globally, with Middle East–China rates up 12% to $29,700 per day, and the fleet-weighted average rising 11.3% to $39,700 per day. Fearnleys noted that increased VLCC use in Europe may relieve pressure on suezmaxes in other regions, although gains for larger tankers are expected to be more gradual.

___________________________________

Houthis Threaten 64 Shipowners Over Israeli Port Calls

The Houthi group has warned 64 shipowners that their vessels will be attacked in the Red Sea and nearby waters if they continue to call at Israeli ports, despite prior “pre-penalty notices” being issued and ignored. The ban extends to entire fleets, not just individual ships, and may also impact companies associated with the targeted owners, according to the group’s Humanitarian Operations Coordination Center (HOCC). The Houthis said these actions are part of their enforcement of a naval blockade against Israel, launched in November 2023 in support of Palestinians in Gaza. This escalation follows the sinking of two Greek-operated bulkers, Eternity C and Magic Seas, with four seafarers feared dead and 11 others held captive. While these ships hadn't recently visited Israel, their operators — Cosmoship Management and Stem Shipping — reportedly manage other vessels that have.

___________________________________

Israel’s Leviathan Signs Record $35 Billion Gas Deal to Ease Egypt’s Energy Crisis

Israel’s Leviathan gas field has secured a historic export agreement worth up to $35 billion, supplying 130 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas to Egypt through 2040. The deal aims to alleviate Egypt’s energy crisis, caused by a 42% drop in domestic gas production since 2021, falling to 3,545 million cubic meters in May 2024. Leviathan will deliver 20 bcm starting in early 2026, followed by 110 bcm after a $2.4 billion expansion and a new pipeline via Nitzana. Israeli gas, costing around $7.75/mmBtu, is significantly cheaper than imported LNG, priced at about $13.5/mmBtu. This deal, which may raise export prices by at least 20%, could cut Egypt’s LNG imports by 1–2 bcm in 2026 and eventually eliminate its dependence on LNG altogether.