Oil Prices Dip to 5-Week Low Amid OPEC+ Output Hike and Trump’s Tariff Threats to India

Oil prices dropped on Tuesday, with Brent falling $1.12 to $67.64 and WTI down $1.13 to $65.16 — the lowest in five weeks — due to rising OPEC+ output and global demand concerns. OPEC+ agreed to increase production by 547,000 bpd for September, ending recent output cuts earlier than planned. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump reignited trade tensions by threatening higher tariffs on India for continuing to import Russian crude, as India remains the largest buyer of Russian seaborne oil at 1.75 million barrels per day from January to June. Traders remain skeptical of major supply disruptions, with analysts calling the market "stable" until further U.S. policy is revealed. U.S. crude inventories also declined by 4.2 million barrels last week, according to API data, adding complexity to price dynamics.

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Russia Considers Air Truce Offer to Trump Amid Rising Tariff Threats

The Kremlin is considering offering an air strike truce in Ukraine — potentially involving a halt to drone and missile attacks — to US President Donald Trump in hopes of avoiding secondary sanctions, though a full ceasefire remains off the table. Trump has threatened heavy tariffs on countries such as China and India that continue purchasing Russian energy, and envoy Steve Witkoff is set to meet Russian officials this week ahead of a Friday deadline. Despite six phone calls between Trump and Putin since February, Russia has escalated air attacks, while maintaining demands like Ukraine’s neutrality and recognition of Russian-occupied territories. 

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India’s Nayara Energy Resumes Fuel Exports Despite EU and UK Sanctions

Nayara Energy, a Russia-backed Indian refiner, exported its first gasoline cargo since being sanctioned by the EU on July 18, shipping about 43,000 metric tons aboard the UK-sanctioned vessel Tempest Dream to Sohar, Oman. A second sanctioned vessel, Sard, is at Nayara’s Vadinar port to load a similar diesel cargo. Sanctions have forced Nayara to reduce crude processing at its 400,000 bpd refinery due to limited shipping access and export challenges. The company has turned to India’s domestic fuel retailers and has used the Leruo tanker to move 43,000 tons of diesel to Mundra port. Both the Leruo and Sard have been under EU sanctions since May and July, respectively.

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China’s Iranian Oil Imports Fall Nearly 30% in July Amid Weaker Teapot Demand

China's imports of Iranian crude fell nearly 30% in July to around 1.2 million bpd, down from over 1.7 million bpd in June. The drop was driven by weaker demand from private refiners, known as teapots, who had ramped up purchases in June amid fears of supply disruptions from Iran-Israel tensions. Some teapots also faced tight import quotas, curbing further buying. Although Chinese official customs often report negligible Iranian oil imports due to U.S. sanctions, China remains Iran’s top crude buyer. The U.S. has recently escalated sanctions, including targeting a fourth Chinese oil terminal involved in the Iranian crude supply chain.

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Russian Seaborne Diesel Exports Drop 5% in July Amid Refinery Maintenance and Strong Domestic Demand

Russia’s seaborne diesel and gasoil exports fell 5% in July to 3.26 million metric tons due to reduced refinery output from maintenance and high domestic demand, LSEG data shows. Exports from Primorsk, Russia’s largest ULSD port, dropped 11.3% daily from June to 1.26 million tons. Turkey and Brazil remained top buyers, but both cut their imports — Turkey’s by 14% and Brazil’s by 29%. Diesel exports to Africa also fell 25% to 0.69 million tons, with Morocco, Senegal, Ghana, and Libya being key recipients. Additionally, over 400,000 tons of diesel were directed to ship-to-ship transfers near Limassol, with final destinations yet to be confirmed.

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Rig Count Slide Outpaces Tech Gains, Threatening US Oil Output in 2026

The U.S. rig count has dropped to 540 from over 1,000 in 2019, even as oil output has climbed to a record 13.5 million bpd, thanks to efficiency gains like longer laterals and automated rigs. However, analysts warn these gains can no longer offset declining rig activity, with Wood Mackenzie forecasting a 200,000 bpd drop in Lower 48 oil output in 2026 and an additional 130,000 bpd in 2027. The Permian Basin, now producing over 6.55 million bpd, is nearing a tipping point as its rig count has fallen to 259, near the estimated 240–260 rigs needed to sustain output. Despite 25% improvements in drilling efficiency, well productivity is falling due to depletion of high-quality rock, with oil per foot drilled down 8% in 2025. Analysts including Energy Aspects and Novi Labs expect U.S. production to decline well into 2026 if rig counts don’t recover.

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Mexico Unveils 2027 Plan to Rescue Pemex from $100B Debt Crisis

Mexico aims to make Pemex financially self-sufficient by 2027, slashing its debt from over $100 billion to $88.8 billion by the end of 2025 and to $77.3 billion by 2030. President Claudia Sheinbaum’s administration will use a $13.3 billion investment vehicle, partly funded by development and commercial banks, to pay off overdue bills to contractors and suppliers. Pemex plans to boost output by reviving old wells, tapping offshore deposits like Zama and Trion, building pipelines, and increasing refining and petrochemical efficiency. Despite a recent $12 billion bond sale and a credit upgrade from Fitch, analysts remain skeptical, citing deep operational inefficiencies and declining oil output, now at half its historic peak. Pemex bonds have returned 15% this year, but critics note the company’s challenges go far beyond finances.

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Shipowners Face Double Carbon Costs as EU and IMO Emission Rules Overlap

Shipowners, particularly European ferry operators, risk paying twice for CO2 emissions due to overlapping EU regulations (FuelEU Maritime and ETS) and upcoming IMO rules set for 2028. Industry groups call on the European Commission to harmonize these frameworks and remove duplicative rules to avoid high costs and administrative burdens. The ETS, which funds EU member states and innovation projects, complicates efforts to streamline regulations. Without alignment, shipping companies face rising carbon costs and a patchwork of global emission schemes, including emerging markets in Africa, the UK, and California.

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Tsakos Energy Navigation Confirms Order for Two VLCCs, Expanding Newbuilding Portfolio to 21 Vessels

Tsakos Energy Navigation (TEN), the US-listed tanker owner led by Nikolas Tsakos, has confirmed an order for two eco-friendly VLCCs at Hanwha Ocean in South Korea, with an option for a third vessel. These VLCCs, each about 320,000 deadweight tons, are scheduled for delivery in 2027 and 2028 and are part of TEN’s broader orderbook now totaling 21 eco vessels with minimum contracted revenues of $3.7 billion through 2028. Alongside newbuildings, TEN has sold three older vessels, generating roughly $60 million in free cash and $9 million in capital gains expected to appear in Q3 financials. TEN’s current fleet includes 82 vessels with a capacity of approximately 11 million dwt, featuring a mix of crude, product tankers, LNG carriers, and several scrubber-equipped ships. The company emphasizes “responsible fleet growth” and gradual divestment from older assets to meet client needs with high-specification, environmentally friendly vessels.