Oil Prices Dip as OPEC+ Approves September Output Boost of 547,000 bpd

Oil prices declined after OPEC+ agreed to raise production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, causing Brent crude to fall to $69.24 and WTI to $66.94 per barrel. This output hike is part of OPEC+'s ongoing strategy to reverse previous cuts and recapture market share, particularly amid Russia-related supply concerns. The group also approved a separate increase for the UAE, bringing the total added supply to 2.5 million bpd, or roughly 2.4% of global demand. OPEC+ justified the decision by pointing to a strong global economy and low inventory levels. Analysts noted that actual supply increases have mainly come from Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and the market has so far absorbed the extra barrels without a major price collapse.

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OPEC+ Ends Output Hike Phase but Keeps Traders Guessing on Next Move

OPEC+ has completed a 547,000 barrel-per-day output increase, finalizing the reversal of a major 2023 supply cut one year ahead of schedule, as part of a strategy to regain market share. However, the fate of an additional 1.66 million bpd—still offline until at least late 2026—remains unclear, with the group offering no firm direction and leaving all options open. Despite steady demand, a projected Q4 surplus of 2 million bpd, driven by slower growth in China and rising supplies in the Americas, may force OPEC+ to consider pausing or even reversing recent increases. Crude prices have already dropped 6.7% this year to near $70 a barrel, with forecasts suggesting a further decline toward $60, below most member nations’ fiscal break-even points. Geopolitical tensions, including U.S. President Donald Trump’s threat of secondary sanctions on Russian oil buyers, add further uncertainty ahead of the group’s next meeting on September 7.

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Saudi Oil Rigs Drop to 20-Year Low as Kingdom Shifts Focus to Gas Projects

Saudi Arabia’s active oil rigs fell to just 20 in July, down from 46 in early 2024, marking the lowest count since February 2005, according to Baker Hughes data. This decline follows an 18-month reduction in drilling, partly due to Riyadh abandoning plans to raise Aramco’s production capacity from 12 million to 13 million barrels per day. Meanwhile, gas projects are surging, with over 50% of Aramco’s upstream spending now allocated to gas, highlighted by the Jafurah project’s first phase (650 million cubic feet per day) starting by year-end. Saudi Arabia aims to save 1 million barrels of crude per day by 2030 by using natural gas for domestic power and industry. While the gas shift offsets some oil declines, rig suppliers like SLB are feeling the downturn, with several rigs demobilized and future drilling contracts delayed.

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Chinese Independent Oil Firms Expand Rapidly in Iraq, Targeting 500,000 bpd by 2030

Chinese independent oil companies are significantly increasing their footprint in Iraq, aiming to double output to 500,000 bpd by 2030, lured by new profit-sharing contracts and faster project timelines. Firms like Geo-Jade Petroleum, United Energy, and Zhongman Petroleum are investing billions, with Geo-Jade alone committing $848 million to revive the Tuba field and build a 200,000-bpd refinery. These nimble firms offer cheaper labor, faster development (2–3 years), and greater risk tolerance, driving down drilling costs to $4–5 million per well, nearly half of a decade ago. Iraq’s shift from fixed-fee to profit-sharing contracts has attracted these smaller players as global majors like ExxonMobil and Shell scaled back. However, concerns remain over technical standards, transparency, and the limited roles for local Iraqi workers in Chinese-run operations.

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US Sanctions Disrupt Russian Oil Deliveries to India, Trigger Vessel Diversions

New U.S. sanctions targeting over 115 Iran-linked entities and ships—some carrying Russian oil—have forced at least two vessels bound for India to divert, trade sources and LSEG data reveal. The Aframax tankers Tagor and Guanyin, along with Suezmax Tassos, were scheduled to deliver Russian oil to Indian ports but were sanctioned by the U.S. Treasury. Tagor is now heading to China, while Tassos is rerouting to Egypt’s Port Said. Although Guanyin remains on course to India, Reliance Industries denied it was receiving the cargo, despite past purchases. The disruption highlights increasing pressure on India, which sources over a third of its oil from Russia, as U.S. and Western allies tighten sanctions to curb Russia’s war financing.

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India Withstands Pressure to Halt Russian Oil Imports Amid Trump Tariffs

India has not instructed its oil refiners to stop buying Russian crude, despite U.S. President Donald Trump’s imposition of a 25% tariff and threats of further penalties over India’s energy and defense ties with Moscow. While Trump claimed India would halt Russian oil imports, Indian officials clarified that no such decision has been made, and purchases remain commercially driven. India has become the largest buyer of Russian seaborne crude, now accounting for about one-third of its total oil imports. Although Indian refiners have been asked to explore alternatives in case Russian flows stop, this is considered contingency planning rather than a policy shift. Switching to Gulf suppliers would increase costs, which New Delhi is reluctant to do amid existing economic pressures.

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Indian Oil Purchases US Crude Amid Pressure Over Russian Oil Imports

State-owned Indian Oil Corp. has purchased at least 5 million barrels of U.S. crude and 2 million barrels from Abu Dhabi amid growing pressure from the U.S. and EU to reduce reliance on Russian oil. The unusually large and urgent purchases come after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened secondary tariffs on nations continuing to import Russian crude, specifically targeting India. In addition to the U.S. and UAE oil, Indian Oil also bought 4 million barrels of West African crude this week. India, now the largest buyer of Russian seaborne oil, currently sources about one-third of its imports from Russia due to favorable pricing. Analysts interpret India’s recent buying spree from alternative sources as a signal of gradual diversification away from Russian supplies, driven by both political and economic factors.

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Dangote Appoints Ex-Shell Executive David Bird as CEO Amid Refinery Expansion

Aliko Dangote has appointed David Bird, a former Shell executive and ex-CEO of Oman’s 230,000 barrels-a-day refinery 0Q8, as the CEO of his refinery and petrochemical business. Bird, who joined in July, brings 14 years of experience at Shell, where he last served as Vice President of the $12 billion Prelude FLNG project. His appointment aligns with Dangote's ramp-up of operations at his 650,000 barrels-a-day refinery near Lagos, which saw a 29% increase in crude imports in July, reaching 18.87 million barrels. Dangote is also pursuing a major infrastructure expansion, having applied to build an Atlantic seaport in Olokola, about 100 km from his existing facilities. The port would support exports and heavy equipment logistics for his growing industrial empire.

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Exxon and Chevron Beat Expectations with Record Oil Production Amid Price Challenges

Exxon Mobil and Chevron reported better-than-expected second-quarter results driven by record oil production, with Exxon reaching 4.6 million bpd and Chevron hitting nearly 4 million bpd. Despite international crude prices dropping nearly $20 a barrel year-over-year due to trade tensions and OPEC+ supply increases, both companies maintained strong output, especially in the Permian Basin. Exxon’s adjusted profit was $1.64 per share, exceeding forecasts by 8 cents, while Chevron’s was $1.77 per share, 6 cents above expectations, even as Chevron cut buybacks by a third for the quarter. Exxon plans further cost cuts totaling $4.5 billion by 2030, and Chevron anticipates free cash flow growth of 25% to $12.5 billion next year if oil prices stay near $70 per barrel. Both companies face potential price pressures in the second half of the year but remain strategically positioned to handle varying market conditions.

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Rising Middle East Oil Prices Boost US Crude Exports to Asia

Higher Middle East crude prices, particularly for Dubai and Murban grades, have opened a strong price arbitrage that is driving increased US WTI crude exports to Asia in the fourth quarter. WTI crude is currently priced $0.50 to $0.75 per barrel cheaper than Murban for delivery into North Asia, encouraging Asian buyers to diversify away from Arabian Gulf crude. VLCC tanker rates for US Gulf to Asia voyages have declined by about $200,000, easing shipping costs for these longer routes. Japan’s imports of US crude surged 253% year-on-year to 102,000 bpd in June, though it still represents only 4.8% of the country’s total oil imports. Factors supporting Middle East price strength include healthy Asian demand and US President Donald Trump’s tariff warnings on countries purchasing Russian

oil.

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Americas Crude Exports to Drive Global Tanker Demand Amid 10-Year Growth Surge, Says Clarksons

Clarksons reports that crude exports from the Americas — which rose from 5.8 million bpd in 2015 to 9.4 million bpd in 2024 — will continue to fuel tanker tonne-mile growth, accounting for 32% of global tonne-miles in 2024, up from just 10% in 2010. Despite a softening in US long-haul exports to East Asia, Brazil’s exports to China jumped 25% year-on-year in Q2, and continued growth is forecast for routes like Brazil–China and Guyana–Europe. The Americas are projected to make up over one-third of global crude tonne-miles in 2025, with exports expected to reach 9.7 million bpd in 2026 — a 4% increase. Support is expected from new FPSO developments off Brazil and Guyana, as well as rising Canadian exports boosted by the TMX project and growing Argentinian volumes from the Vaca Muerta basin. Weaker exports from Mexico and Venezuela are being offset by this broader regional growth.

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Greek Shipowners Urge EU to Scrap Emission Rules Once Global IMO Carbon Tax Takes Effect

The Union of Greek Shipowners (UGS) has called on the EU to eliminate regional carbon emission rules, such as the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) and FuelEU Maritime, once the International Maritime Organization (IMO) adopts a global Net-Zero Framework (NZF) later this year. UGS warns that dual regulation would result in costly overlap and penalize key transitional fuels like LNG, undermining the industry's investments. Greece's shipping industry, which owns 20% of the global merchant fleet, has heavily invested in alternative fuels — 31% of its newbuildings are alternative fuel-capable, and 48% under construction are equipped with SOx scrubbers. However, UGS criticizes the IMO’s proposed emissions targets as “unrealistic” and the penalties for non-compliance as disproportionate, especially given the lack of viable fuel alternatives. They also demand a say in managing revenues from the IMO's Net-Zero Fund, warning that both global and EU schemes could compete for control over carbon tax income.

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Greek Newcomer Carlova Maritime Orders $125M VLCC from Hanwha Ocean for 2027 Delivery

Carlova Maritime, a newly formed Greek shipping company and successor to Samos Steamship, is expanding rapidly by reportedly ordering a 320,000-dwt VLCC from South Korea's Hanwha Ocean for $125–$126 million, with delivery expected in 2027. The move marks a shift from its traditional use of Japanese shipyards, motivated by Hanwha’s earlier delivery slots and competitive pricing. Carlova currently manages a fleet of seven ships — five tankers (including one VLCC, one suezmax, and three aframaxes) and two bulkers — which are expected to increase to nine vessels by mid-August. The VLCC order is part of a broader expansion that has seen Hanwha Ocean secure contracts for 11 VLCCs this year from multiple buyers. Japanese shipyards, like JMU, are currently less aggressive in pursuing VLCC orders due to a local preference for clean-fuel ships.

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International Seaways Sells Older 50,000-dwt MR Tanker for $16.5 Million

International Seaways has sold the 50,000-dwt MR product tanker Seaways Titan, built in 2008, to undisclosed buyers for $16.5 million, slightly below its estimated value of over $17 million by VesselsValue. The Hyundai Mipo-built vessel was part of the Denmark-based Norden Tankers pool and originally acquired by Diamond S Shipping in 2011 from Cido Shipping for just over $39 million under the name Atlantic Titan. International Seaways took ownership of the tanker through its $2.2 billion all-stock acquisition of Diamond S Shipping, which was completed in July 2021. Diamond S Shipping, once chaired by Wilbur Ross during the Trump administration, operated a fleet of 64 vessels, including 50 MR tankers, 13 suezmaxes, and an aframax. The Seaways Titan was among the oldest vessels in the fleet, with several other tankers dating back to 2006 and 2007.