Oil Jumps 2% on US-EU Trade Deal and Trump’s Russia Deadline Shift

Oil prices rose by over 2% following a new US-EU trade deal and President Trump's announcement to shorten Russia’s war deadline from 50 days to 10–12 days. Brent crude climbed to $70.04 per barrel and WTI to $66.71, reaching 10-day highs amid optimism about global market stability. The trade pact includes a 15% US tariff on most EU goods and a $750 billion EU commitment to purchase US energy, pressuring Russia’s energy exports. Analysts say this agreement strengthens US producers and shifts market focus back to fundamentals, although factors like a strong dollar and lower Indian demand still pose challenges. Meanwhile, OPEC+ reaffirmed the need for compliance with output cuts ahead of a key meeting, with expectations to fully restore 2.2 million bpd of voluntary cuts by September.

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Trump Shortens Russia Sanctions Deadline Amid Frustration Over Ukraine War

President Donald Trump announced he is shortening the original 50-day deadline given to Vladimir Putin to end the war in Ukraine, now proposing a new window of 10 to 12 days. Expressing disappointment, Trump stated there has been no meaningful progress and reiterated his warning of “very severe” tariffs and possible secondary sanctions on countries like India and China. These potential measures could significantly escalate global trade impacts beyond current sanctions on Russia’s oil trade fleet. Trump originally returned to office pledging swift resolution of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, citing personal rapport with Putin. However, he now criticizes Putin’s repeated escalations, including missile strikes that followed peace talks, stating: “that’s not the way to do it.”

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Saudi Arabia Poised to Raise September Oil Prices to Asia

Saudi Arabia may raise the official selling price (OSP) of its Arab Light crude to Asia by $0.90 to $1.05 per barrel in September, reaching a five-month high of $3.10–$3.25 per barrel due to tightening global supply and strong Asian demand. Other grades like Arab Extra Light, Medium, and Heavy are expected to see similar increases of 80–95 cents, according to a Reuters survey. This would mark the second consecutive month of price hikes, aligning with a $1.11 increase in the cash Dubai premium. Rising domestic demand in the Middle East, especially during the summer, and surging Chinese consumption are reducing exports and supporting higher prices. However, Saudi Arabia’s increasing output and a likely OPEC+ decision to raise production by another 548,000 barrels per day in September could moderate the scale of the price hike.

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Iraq Flags 11 Tankers for Suspected Illegal Oil Loadings Using Deceptive Tactics

Iraq’s state oil marketer SOMO has identified 11 tankers suspected of illegally loading petroleum products from the key ports of Umm Qasr and Khor al-Zubair, according to a letter seen by Reuters. The vessels allegedly used tactics such as Automatic Identification System (AIS) spoofing to mask their real locations or routes, and were not included in SOMO’s official loading schedules. SOMO classified these actions as high-risk and possibly involving illegal practices like tampering with tracking systems or unauthorized transfers. The alert comes amid regional crackdowns on illicit oil flows, following recent U.S. sanctions targeting deceptive shipping linked to Iran’s crude trade. SOMO urged Iraq’s National Security Agency to take action to safeguard national oil resources.

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Guyana’s Oil Output Dips in June but Stays Above Last Year’s Average

Guyana's crude oil production slightly declined in June to 664,000 bpd, down from 667,000 bpd in May, due to a fall in output at the Liza 1 project. Despite the dip, first-half 2025 production averaged 639,000 bpd, surpassing the 623,000 bpd recorded during the same period last year. The country expects to exceed 900,000 bpd later this year with the launch of a fourth floating production unit. In June alone, the government earned $191 million from its share of oil sales, contributing to a total of $1.22 billion in oil revenue for the first half of the year. ExxonMobil, along with partners CNOOC and Chevron, has recovered $35.9 billion in expenses, though some cost recovery disputes are now under arbitration.

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Russia Temporarily Halts Gasoline Exports by Producers to Stabilize Domestic Supply

Russia has imposed a full ban on gasoline exports by oil producers until August 31 to stabilize domestic fuel supplies amid peak seasonal demand. The government said the move is meant to ensure adequate fuel availability, particularly for Russian farmers. Previously, only small-scale resellers were subject to export restrictions, while major oil companies could still export gasoline. The new ban will exclude fuel shipments to members of the Eurasian Economic Union and countries like Mongolia that have bilateral fuel agreements with Russia. This policy shift reflects growing domestic concerns over fuel security during summer consumption peaks.

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Russia’s Urals Crude Prices Firm in India as Discounts Narrow Amid Supply Constraints and Sanctions

Prices for Russian Urals crude oil destined for Indian ports in late August and early September have firmed, with discounts to Brent crude narrowing to their lowest since 2022. Spot discounts fell to around $1.50–$1.60 per barrel on a delivery ex-ship basis, down from $1.70–$2 last month, driven by strong demand in India and Turkey and tightening supply due to Western sanctions. Russia’s oil exports from Baltic ports are expected to drop in August, adding pressure on availability. India, primarily through Reliance Industries’ deal with Rosneft, remains the largest buyer of Russian crude, though ongoing sanctions and reduced spot availability may prompt refiners to seek alternative supplies.

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EU-Sanctioned Nayara Energy to Receive Iraqi Crude Shipment This Week

A VLCC named Kalliopi is expected to deliver about two million barrels of Iraqi crude to India’s Nayara Energy at Vadinar port within the next couple of days. This shipment will likely be Nayara’s first non-Russian crude receipt since the European Union imposed sanctions on the Russian-backed refiner, which had led to ships avoiding the terminal and a change in management. The tanker is managed by Greece-based Dynacom Tankers, though the charterer remains unclear. Both Nayara Energy and the tanker operator have not commented on the delivery. The shipment marks a significant step as the market watches how EU sanctions affect Nayara’s operations.

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Microsoft Halts Services to Rosneft-Backed Nayara Energy Amid EU Sanctions Dispute

Microsoft Corp. has suspended critical services to Nayara Energy, a major Indian refiner partly owned by Russian oil giant Rosneft, citing its interpretation of recent European Union sanctions. Nayara Energy responded by filing a lawsuit in Delhi High Court, accusing Microsoft of unilateral action that threatens India’s energy sector and lacks legal basis under U.S. or Indian law. The refiner, which operates a 400,000-bpd facility on India’s west coast, has faced operational difficulties as shipowners and traders avoid it following EU sanctions. Nayara claims Microsoft is blocking access to its data and proprietary tools despite fully paid licenses. The company maintains compliance with Indian laws and is working with authorities to ensure transparency amid the sanctions fallout.

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Enterprise Products Partners Confident in Permian Production Growth Despite Lower Oil Prices

Enterprise Products Partners, a major pipeline operator in the Permian Basin, expects oil production in the region to remain resilient this year despite anticipated crude price declines. Senior executives highlighted shale producers’ commitment to 3-5% output growth in Texas and New Mexico, as OPEC’s production increases will have limited short-term impact. Production growth of up to 800,000 bpd is forecasted from 2025 to 2027, though it could be revised down if prices drop further. Enterprise also recently started operations at a new ethane-export terminal in Texas, with strong demand for U.S. ethane in Asia and Europe. Regulatory export restrictions to China had minimal effect, as the licensing requirement was temporary and has since been lifted.

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UK Commits £30 Million to Green Shipping Projects Supporting Net Zero by 2050

The UK government is investing £30 million ($44.3 million) in green fuel and technology projects to advance shipping decarbonization and reach net zero emissions by 2050. This sixth round of funding, part of a £136 million total so far, supports pre-deployment trials, feasibility studies, and smart shipping innovations using AI and digital tools. Notable recipients include GT Wings (£780,000) developing AI-controlled wing sails, Purple Sector Ltd (£633,000) for digital powertrain optimization, and carbon capture start-up Seabound (£1 million+) for vessel emission control. The funding aims to boost UK skills, manufacturing, and coastal economies while positioning the nation as a clean energy leader. These efforts are coordinated through the UK Clean Maritime Demonstrator Competition launched in 2021.