Oil Prices Rise 1% on U.S. Crude Draws and Russian Export Cuts Despite Venezuela News

Oil prices rose by nearly 1% on Thursday, with Brent settling at $69.18 and WTI at $66.03 per barrel, driven by U.S. crude inventory draws and Russia's planned gasoline export cuts. U.S. inventories dropped by 3.2 million barrels—double analysts’ expectations—supporting bullish sentiment. Russia’s restriction of gasoline exports to only select allies added upward pressure on prices. Hopes for a potential U.S.–EU trade deal also contributed to market optimism.

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Chevron’s Venezuela Comeback Aims to Bolster U.S. Oil Supply but Faces Seasonal Constraints

Chevron has been cleared by the U.S. government to resume oil production and exports from Venezuela, potentially boosting American refiners’ supply by over 200,000 bpd. Prior to losing its license in May, Chevron exported most of its 240,000 bpd output to U.S. fuelmakers like Valero, Phillips 66, and PBF Energy. Venezuela had stockpiled diluents in May—raising imports to a four-year high—enabling stable production at 1.1 million bpd despite ongoing sanctions. However, the timing may limit Chevron’s ability to impact the current summer driving season, which ends in about a month. Meanwhile, Venezuela continued exporting to China—563,000 bpd in June, a five-year high—by disguising shipments as Malaysian oil during the U.S. ban.

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China’s U.S. Energy Imports Collapse to Near Zero Ahead of Key Trade Talks

China’s imports of U.S. crude oil, LNG, and coal dropped to almost zero in June, with crude imports halted for the first time in nearly three years—down from $800 million in value a year earlier. This collapse follows 10–15% Chinese tariffs imposed in retaliation for U.S. trade measures and reflects Beijing’s strategic diversification toward suppliers like Saudi Arabia and Russia. American gas exports to China have also flatlined for four months, while coal purchases fell to just a few hundred dollars. Analysts suggest the halt is both economically driven and a political response to persistent U.S. sanctions and tariffs. As Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent prepares for trade talks with China next week, energy trade will be a focal point, alongside discussions on China’s sanctioned oil purchases from Russia and Iran.

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Kazakh Oil Exports via Black Sea Resume After Brief Suspension by Russia

Russia’s FSB security service resumed granting access to foreign tankers at Black Sea ports, allowing Kazakhstan’s oil exports—disrupted for nearly a day—to restart, according to four industry sources. The halt affected around 2% of global oil supply, briefly pushing Brent crude prices close to $70 per barrel. The suspension followed new Russian regulations requiring FSB clearance for foreign ships, enacted shortly after fresh EU sanctions over the Ukraine conflict. Exports through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), which includes Chevron and ExxonMobil, had been halted, impacting Kazakhstan’s oil flow through Russian terminals. Meanwhile, BP reported contamination in tanks at Turkey’s BTC Ceyhan terminal, although other reservoirs remain operational.

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Russian Oil Tanker Diverts from Sanctioned Nayara Port to Mundra, Cargo Bought by HPCL-Mittal

A tanker carrying about 700,000 barrels of Russian Urals crude originally headed for Nayara Energy’s Vadinar port in India was diverted to unload at the nearby Mundra port. This diversion follows EU sanctions targeting Nayara, partly owned by Russia’s Rosneft, which also caused two other tankers to skip loading refined products from Vadinar. The cargo was purchased by HPCL-Mittal Energy Ltd (HMEL), which operates a large refinery in northern Punjab. Neither Nayara nor HMEL commented on the situation. Nayara runs a 400,000 bpd refinery in western India, while HMEL’s refinery has a capacity of 226,000 bpd.

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Sanctions Expand Shadow Fleet to Over 1,500 Vessels, Hitting Global Tanker Trade

Clarksons Research reports that 1,578 vessels—about 4% of the global fleet and primarily tankers—are now sanctioned due to Russian trading, with 801 oil carriers accounting for 17% of global crude tanker capacity and 8% of product tanker capacity. This marks a sharp increase from 10% and 3% respectively at the start of 2024. The EU and UK recently added 105 and 134 ships to their sanction lists, lowered the Russian crude price cap to $47.60 per barrel, and imposed future restrictions on refined petroleum products made from Russian crude starting January 21, 2026. The EU also sanctioned flag registries, including 609 ships from Comoros and 75 from Gabon. These moves have already disrupted shipping patterns, with tankers withdrawing from calls at Nayara Energy’s Vadinar refinery in India, which was recently blacklisted.

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Russia’s Ust-Luga Port Tightens Vessel Checks After Unexplained Explosions

Russia’s Ust-Luga port, the largest on the Baltic Sea and a key hub for crude, coal, and ammonia exports, has begun mandatory underwater hull inspections for incoming vessels following a series of unexplained blasts involving tankers. This heightened scrutiny includes requirements for Russian protection and indemnity insurance and precedes President Putin’s new decree mandating FSB approval for all foreign vessel entries to Russian ports. Notable incidents include damage to the Koala oil tanker in February and an ammonia leak from the Eco Wizard LPG tanker in July. The Russian port authority has announced a 3.16 billion ruble ($40.4 million) tender for underwater hull inspections across all Baltic ports. Despite temporary disruptions, shipping activity at Black Sea ports like Novorossiysk and CPC terminal is resuming normal operations.

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Russia Considers Petrol Export Ban to Curb Domestic Price Hikes, Potentially Hitting Tanker Demand

Russia is considering a new petrol export ban from August to October to stabilize domestic supply and control rising fuel prices, according to pro-Kremlin newspaper Izvestia. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak emphasized the need to prevent sharp gasoline price increases and called for close monitoring of market conditions. The proposed ban would be separate from EU sanctions and could affect product tanker demand, particularly MR1 and MR2 tankers that currently ship around 50,000 bpd of Russian petrol to South America and Africa. Russia had already imposed restrictions earlier in 2024 on traders and small producers, with some extended until October. Analysts warn that while refinery maintenance completion may ease supply tightness, limiting exports could reduce refining activity and drive prices higher.

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BP Abandons $36 Billion Australian Green Hydrogen Project Amid Strategic Shift

BP has decided to exit its role as operator and stakeholder in the $36 billion Australian Renewable Energy Hub, a major green hydrogen project in Western Australia. The move reflects BP’s broader strategic shift back toward fossil fuels and profit-focused operations following leadership changes and investor pressure after years of underperformance. Green hydrogen, once seen as a cornerstone of Big Oil’s low-carbon future, has proven too costly for mass adoption, causing many companies, including Fortescue Ltd., to scale back or abandon similar ventures. The project planned to use 26 GW of wind and solar energy across a massive 6,500-square-kilometer area in the Pilbara region. Despite its potential, green hydrogen's economic viability remains challenged by persistently high production and electricity costs.

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A 'ChExxon' Megamerger? Exxon-Chevron Synergies Spark Speculation of Historic Energy Deal

Exxon Mobil and Chevron, the two largest U.S. oil producers with a combined market value of $775 billion, are fueling speculation of a potential mega-merger following a series of multibillion-dollar acquisitions, including Exxon’s $60B purchase of Pioneer and Chevron’s $60B acquisition of Hess. Their overlapping operations—especially in the Permian Basin, where they collectively produce nearly 20% of total output—and shared stakes in Guyana’s booming Stabroek block (Exxon 45%, Chevron 30%) are prompting questions about consolidation efficiency. A merger would echo the dominance of Standard Oil pre-1911, though legal, cultural, and operational differences present significant hurdles. With energy market volatility, resource nationalism, and investor pressure rising amid the global energy transition, another wave of consolidation is likely, making such a merger plausible in the long run. Potential cost synergies, like billions in admin savings and divestment of non-core assets, could make a “ChExxon” merger financially compelling.

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ARA Oil Product Stocks Drop to 17-Month Low Amid Strong Export and Travel Demand

Oil product inventories at the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) hub fell over 2% to 5.27 million metric tons—the lowest level since February 8, 2024—according to Insights Global. Jet fuel stocks saw the sharpest decline, dropping 7.5% to 745,000 tons due to heightened seasonal travel demand. Gasoil (including diesel) stocks slipped 0.5% to 1.75 million tons on steady exports, while fuel oil dropped 2.5% to 998,000 tons, driven by outflows to the Mediterranean. Conversely, gasoline stocks rose slightly by 1% to 1.215 million tons, and naphtha inventories decreased from 602,000 to 564,000 tons. Key destinations for outgoing cargoes included the U.S., U.K., West Africa, and the Mediterranean, reflecting continued strong export activity from the ARA region.