Oil Falls for Third Day as U.S.-EU Trade Talks Stall Ahead of Tariff Deadline

Oil prices declined for a third straight session on Tuesday amid stalled U.S.-EU trade negotiations and mounting fears of an economic slowdown. Brent crude dropped $0.82 (1.2%) to $68.39 per barrel, while August WTI fell $1.05 (1.6%) to $66.15, and the more active September contract slid $0.87 (1.3%) to $65.08. U.S. President Trump’s August 1 tariff deadline looms, with threats of a 30% tariff on EU imports if no deal is reached. Diesel, an indicator of industrial activity, fell nearly 3% to $102.50 per barrel, leading losses across the energy sector. However, analysts say crude losses could be capped if the U.S. softens or delays its tariff threats.

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U.S. Considers Major Sanctions on Russian Oil to Force Ukraine Peace Deal

U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright stated that sanctioning Russian oil is a "very real possibility" to end the war in Ukraine. President Donald Trump recently warned of imposing 100% tariffs on buyers of Russian oil and other sanctions if Russia does not agree to a peace deal by early September. Wright emphasized that energy sanctions would be the most powerful tool against Moscow, leveraging the U.S.'s position as the world's top oil and gas producer. He noted that America can now pursue actions that were once considered unfeasible. Despite this, the Trump administration has so far focused its oil-related sanctions on Iran, not Russia.

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EU Sanctions on Nayara Disrupt Fuel Exports as BP Tanker Departs Without Loading

A BP-chartered tanker, Talara, left Nayara Energy's Vadinar port in India without loading 60,000 metric tons of diesel, amid newly imposed EU sanctions targeting the Russia-linked refiner. Nayara, partly owned by Russia’s Rosneft, was sanctioned last Friday, impacting refined product exports just days later. BP subsequently released Talara for charter within India or the Middle East, signaling immediate disruption to trading activity. Meanwhile, Shell’s Pacific Martina loaded jet fuel at the same port but has remained anchored nearby, and PetroChina is planning to load 35,000 tons of gasoil later this month. Nayara criticized the EU’s sanctions as “unjust and unilateral,” while India voiced opposition to the EU’s measures.

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U.S. Gasoline Prices Dip Amid Weak Summer Demand and Rising Imports

U.S. gasoline prices may fall below $3 per gallon for the first time since 2021, driven by weakened summer demand and a surge in imports. Fuel consumption during the week of July 4 was down 2.5% year-over-year, with extreme heat and evolving post-pandemic driving habits cited as contributing factors. Gasoline imports peaked in mid-June at 100,700 barrels per day—the highest in over a year—boosting storage demand to a three-year high. The national average gas price dropped to $3.14 per gallon after Independence Day, with further declines expected into September. Additional pressure on prices comes from OPEC's unexpected 548,000 bpd production increase and expanded fuel shipments from sources like Nigeria’s Dangote refinery and Canada’s Irving Oil.

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Halliburton Warns Mexico’s Oil Output Decline Could Prompt Rebound if Pemex Resolves Payment Issues

Halliburton has highlighted that declining oil production in Mexico—down 8.4% in May to 1.64 million bpd—could spur a reactivation of oilfield services, but only if state-run Pemex resolves long-standing payment delays. Pemex, burdened with $101 billion in financial debt and an estimated $20 billion in outstanding supplier payments, has caused many service firms to scale back or consider halting operations. Halliburton confirmed payment issues remain unresolved, while rival SLB emphasized that key structural problems must be addressed before activity can recover. Foreign oil service companies in Mexico warned they might cease operations by July unless Pemex guarantees regular billing and develops a payment plan for past debts. 

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Venezuela Maintains 1.1 Million bpd Oil Output Despite Chevron Exit Through Diluent Stockpiling

Venezuela’s oil production has remained steady at about 1.1 million bpd in June and July despite Chevron’s forced exit in May due to US sanctions, which removed a major supplier of diluent critical for heavy crude pipeline flow. Before Chevron’s shutdown, Venezuela stockpiled diluent imports at a record 97,000 bpd in May, cushioning the impact on production. With US sanctions cutting off US diluent supplies, Venezuela is turning to alternatives like Iranian condensate and Russian heavy naphtha, both of which face sanctions and trade risks. The country’s limited domestic diluent production is primarily used for gasoline, leaving 11 of 17 Orinoco Belt fields reliant on imports. Experts warn the stockpiles may only last two to three months, raising concerns about sustaining output amid ongoing sanctions.

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Why Trump’s Pending Tariffs on Brazil Could Be Good News for Tanker Owners

President Trump’s planned 50% tariffs on Brazilian imports, set to take effect on August 1, may cause a major reshuffling in global oil trade flows, benefiting tanker owners through increased tonne-mile demand. Brazil’s growing crude exports head to the US, but with the tariffs making Brazilian oil uneconomical for US refineries, those barrels could be redirected to Asian buyers, primarily in China and Southeast Asia. These longer voyages — nearly doubling transit time compared to routes from Brazil to the US West Coast — would require VLCCs and suezmax tankers to spend more days at sea, boosting overall demand for tanker capacity. While European buyers might also absorb some volumes, their shipping distances are shorter, offering less impact on tonne-miles. Overall, this tariff-driven rerouting could significantly increase shipping days and income for tanker operators as Brazil’s export flows pivot eastward.

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CNOOC Launches Production at 730-Million-Barrel Kenli Oilfield in Bohai Sea

China’s CNOOC has begun production at the Kenli 10-2 oilfield in the Bohai Sea, which holds geological reserves of approximately 100 million metric tons (730 million barrels). The field is China’s largest shallow lithologic offshore oilfield and is expected to reach peak output of 19,400 barrels of oil equivalent per day by 2026. CNOOC, the sole operator with a 100% stake, plans to drill 79 development wells supported by a central platform and two wellhead platforms. The project is notable for producing heavy crude and includes the region’s first large-scale thermal recovery platform. The broader Bohai oilfield produced over 36 million tons (720,000 bpd) in 2024, representing one-sixth of China's total oil output.

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Kazakhstan Eyes China and India in 15-Year Plan to Expand Fuel Exports

Kazakhstan has unveiled a long-term oil refining strategy through 2040 aimed at significantly boosting fuel exports to China, India, and Central Asia. The country’s three major refineries—in Pavlodar, Shymkent, and Atyrau—currently produce a combined 17 million metric tons annually (about 350,000 bpd), with plans to increase output share for export to 30% by 2040. Domestic fuel demand is projected to grow by up to 2% annually due to urbanization and industrialization. Although exports of gasoline and diesel are currently restricted, the government plans to lift limits to support its strategy. Kazakhstan, holding 30 billion barrels of crude oil reserves, may seek increased foreign investment to fund the initiative.

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VLCCs Reclaim Top Spot in Crude Tanker Market Amid OPEC+ Supply Surge

In the first half of 2025, VLCCs have regained their dominance in the crude tanker sector, driven by rising OPEC+ output, storage-related demand, and reduced short-haul sanctioned trades, according to Howe Robinson. Average VLCC rates for non-eco, non-scrubber vessels rose 8% year-on-year to $38,000 per day, while suezmaxes and aframaxes declined by 5% and 24%, respectively. Poten & Partners reported spot VLCC earnings at $31,100/day on the ME-China route, below the $38,600 YTD average. Suezmaxes on West Africa–Europe earned $28,800/day, and aframaxes from the Caribbean to the US Gulf coast dropped to $13,100/day from a $26,600 YTD average. While VLCCs had struggled post-Ukraine war due to shifting trade routes favoring smaller tankers, 2025 trends have restored their long-haul freight market leadership.

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Global Orders for Bulk Carriers and Tankers Plunge Nearly 80% Amid Market Uncertainty

Newbuilding orders for bulk carriers and tankers plummeted by approximately 80% globally in the first half of 2025, driven by trade uncertainty, high prices, weak freight rates, and looming regulatory changes, according to Xclusiv Shipbrokers. Bulker orders fell 82% year-on-year, with only 76 placed compared to 422 in H1 2024—China secured 41 (down 87%) and Japan 32 (down 66%). Tanker orders similarly dropped 79% to 102 from 486, with Chinese yards capturing only 49 contracts, down from 360 a year ago. In contrast to June 2024 when Chinese shipyards alone received 101 bulker contracts, they saw just 30 in Q2 2025. While U.S. trade policy may have played a role, the steep and synchronized decline is attributed to a broader global investment pullback in shipping.

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MOL Unifies Ship Management Operations Under MOLGSM to Streamline 200-Ship Fleet

Mitsui OSK Lines (MOL) is consolidating its various ship management companies under a new entity, MOL Global Ship Management (MOLGSM), headquartered in Singapore. This merged unit, which currently oversees 42 vessels, will gradually assume control of MOL's entire fleet of over 200 ships, including LNG carriers, bulkers, and tankers. The move aims to enhance safety, operational quality, and competitiveness by unifying best practices and IT systems, while also fostering staff development with broader career opportunities. MOL will retain full ownership of MOLGSM, led by director Chikara Shimokawa. This follows MOL's acquisition of a majority stake in Gearbulk Holding, the world’s top open-hatch bulker operator, as part of a broader business reorganization.

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Global LNG Supply to Surge 7% in 2026, Easing Market Tightness, Says IEA

The IEA forecasts a 7% surge in global LNG supply in 2026, adding 40 billion cubic meters—the largest increase since 2019—primarily driven by North American production and Qatar’s North Field East project. This growth follows a 5.5% expansion in 2025 and is expected to ease tight market conditions that arose after Europe lost Russian pipeline gas in 2022. Rising LNG production will support record gas demand, especially in price-sensitive Asian, African, and Middle Eastern markets, with Europe absorbing most of the increased flows to fill storage for winter. LNG trade increased by around 60% in 2025 compared to the previous year, aided by new exports from LNG Canada. Despite positive outlooks, the IEA warns that delays or operational issues in liquefaction projects could tighten the market in the near term.

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UN Urges AI Data Centers to Switch to 100% Renewable Energy by 2030 Amid Global Clean Energy Push

UN Secretary-General António Guterres urged major tech companies to fully power AI data centers with renewable energy by 2030, warning that a typical AI data center consumes as much electricity as 100,000 homes, with the largest centers expected to use 20 times more. The UN report highlights that by 2030, AI data centers could consume as much power as all of Japan currently uses. While renewable energy costs are falling and investments reached $2 trillion in 2024—$800 billion more than fossil fuels—the transition remains uneven, with Africa receiving only 1.5% of renewable investments despite housing 85% of people without electricity. Geopolitical risks and grid challenges may temporarily raise costs, but long-term clean power costs are predicted to decline. Guterres emphasized that G20 nations, responsible for most emissions, must lead the global push to meet the Paris Agreement climate goals ahead of COP30.