Oil Prices Dip as Trump’s 50-Day Russia Deadline Calms Supply Fears

Oil prices fell slightly as U.S. President Donald Trump's 50-day deadline for Russia to end the war in Ukraine eased immediate fears of sanctions that could disrupt supply. Brent and WTI crude both dropped by about 0.7% after rising earlier on concerns of sudden supply tightness. Analysts noted that the deadline gave markets breathing room, though sanctions—if eventually imposed—could significantly shift trade flows, especially for China, India, and Turkey. Broader market sentiment was also influenced by Trump’s tariff threats against the EU, Mexico, and Brazil, which could dampen global economic growth and energy demand. Meanwhile, OPEC expects strong oil demand through Q3, while U.S. crude inventories increased modestly ahead of official data.

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Slovakia Blocks EU Sanctions Package Over Russian Energy Exemption Dispute

Slovakia has delayed the EU’s 18th round of Russian sanctions by demanding an exemption from energy import restrictions, stalling efforts to reform the Russian oil price cap. Prime Minister Robert Fico wants Slovakia to be allowed to continue importing Russian gas under its contract with Gazprom until 2034, but the European Commission rejected the request, saying it would weaken sanctions. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas expressed frustration, noting that a deal is close and hopes to finalize it soon. The proposed reforms would lower the oil price cap from $60 to $45 per barrel, but consensus among all 27 member states is required. Malta, Greece, and Cyprus also raised concerns, with Malta reportedly lacking final government approval for the cap change.

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Trump's Sanctions Threat Casts Shadow Over Russian Oil Flows to China, India, and Turkey

U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened sanctions on buyers of Russian oil unless Moscow agrees to a peace deal in Ukraine, potentially disrupting key exports to China, India, and Turkey. Despite a 14% year-on-year drop in revenue, Russia's crude output remained steady at 9.2 million bpd, with stable seaborne loadings. China, importing around 2 million bpd, remains Russia's top buyer, followed by India at 1.8 million bpd and Turkey at 400,000 bpd. These countries mainly purchase Russian oil grades such as ESPO Blend, Urals, Sokol, and Arctic oil, with many shipments occurring below the G7’s price cap. Russia has also redirected fuel exports to Asia, Latin America, and Africa, while continuing to supply "friendly" countries like Syria, Pakistan, and Cuba.

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China’s State Refiners Boost Output Amid Rising Demand and Low Fuel Stocks

China’s state-owned refiners have ramped up operations post-maintenance to meet growing third-quarter fuel demand and replenish diesel and gasoline inventories at six-year lows. Refinery utilization exceeded 80% in late June, driving overall throughput to 15.15 million bpd—its highest since September 2023. Refined product output from major players like Sinopec and PetroChina is expected to exceed 10 million bpd in July and August. Independent refineries (teapots) remain sluggish due to weak margins and U.S. sanctions limiting access to discounted Iranian crude. Despite seasonal demand growth, full-year oil demand expansion is expected to slow, constrained by a weak property market, trade tensions, and the rise of electric vehicles.

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Drone Attack Halts Oil Production at Sarsang Field in Iraqi Kurdistan, Hours Before New Deal

A drone strike on Tuesday forced the shutdown of Iraq’s Sarsang oilfield in Kurdistan, operated by U.S.-owned HKN Energy, shortly before the company signed a new development deal in Baghdad. The attack caused an explosion and fire, prompting emergency crews to intervene, though no casualties were reported. While no group has claimed responsibility, initial investigations point to Iran-backed militias as potential culprits. The U.S. embassy condemned the attack, urging Iraq to hold those responsible accountable and warning that such incidents threaten Iraq’s sovereignty and investment climate. The incident occurred just two hours before HKN’s Vice President signed a preliminary agreement to develop the Himreen oilfield, in a ceremony attended by Iraq’s oil minister and the U.S. ambassador.

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Bomb Attack on Colombian Pipeline Halts Oil Pumping to Key Covenas Port

Oil pumping to the crucial Colombian tanker port of Covenas was halted after a bomb attack on the Cano Limon-Covenas Oil Pipeline in the Arauca region. The 780-km pipeline, jointly owned by Ecopetrol and Occidental Petroleum, transports up to 210,000 bpd from northeastern oilfields to the Caribbean coast. No injuries were reported, and emergency procedures were launched to prevent oil spills. The pipeline has frequently been targeted by guerrilla groups, including the National Liberation Army (ELN) and FARC dissidents, who oppose Colombia’s energy policies. Recent vessel movements at Covenas include the Chinese VLCC New Eminence and the US-owned suezmax Seaways Rio Grande.

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Bullish Q3 Update from DHT Holdings Boosts Tanker Market Optimism

DHT Holdings, a VLCC-focused tanker company, reported strong third-quarter bookings, securing 53% of spot days at an average of $40,100 per day and 73% of total days (spot plus time charter) at $40,300 per day. Analyst Fredrik Dybwad noted the results exceeded earlier expectations, with VLCC spot rates rising recently after a mid-June rally linked to the Israel-Iran conflict. Jefferies analyst Omar Nokta is optimistic the tanker market will strengthen further as OPEC+ increases production and Middle East consumption declines, freeing more oil for export. DHT’s second-quarter earnings showed time-charter equivalent rates of $46,300 per day, with spot-trading vessels earning slightly higher at $48,700 per day. The company has nine vessels on time charter and 13 trading in the spot market, including the 301,000-dwt DHT Bauhinia leased at $41,500 per day.

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Suezmax Tanker Market Struggles as Brokers Hope VLCC Rate Rise Sparks Revival

The suezmax tanker market remains sluggish, particularly in Asia, with brokers divided on whether rising VLCC rates could inject momentum. Gibson Shipbrokers called the sector a “snoozefest,” noting pressure from VLCCs taking part cargoes eastward, while the Baltic Exchange reported a modest 2% increase in suezmax rates to $28,100 per day. Sentosa Ship Brokers warned of worsening market conditions, pointing to a growing tonnage list and high vessel availability in the Middle East Gulf. SSY highlighted a sharp drop in Black Sea to Mediterranean earnings and weakening West Africa to Europe volumes after a strong start in June. With geopolitical tensions persisting and little upside in aframax markets, analysts expect continued rate pressure until fundamentals shift or a price floor is established.

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Trump’s ‘Very Severe’ Russia Tariff Threat Fuels Potential Spike in Aframax Tanker Rates

Tanker rates from Russian Baltic oil ports have declined recently due to increased ship availability, with aframax freight costs falling to around $5 million-$5.3 million for shipments to India. However, new EU measures, including a potentially lower and floating oil price cap on Russian exports, combined with U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent threat of “very severe” tariffs—possibly up to 100%—have created uncertainty and frozen the Russian oil freight market. Previous U.S. sanctions in January caused a sharp increase in Russian tanker rates as charterers scrambled for vessels, with spot rates for some Russian crude shipments spiking significantly. The anticipation of Trump’s announcement has traders concerned about a repeat of this rate surge. Despite a slight dip in Middle East Gulf to Asia aframax route rates, the overall market remains volatile amid these geopolitical tensions.

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VLCC Sale Reflects Strong Demand for Older Crude Carriers Amid Firm Market Prices

Korea Asset Management Corp (Kamco) sold the 18-year-old VLCC Atlantic Loyalty for over $44 million, signaling firm market values for older large crude carriers. The tanker, originally built in 2007, has changed ownership several times, most recently purchased by Kamco in January 2024 from Sinokor Merchant Marine. Brokers suggest that buyers of such vintage vessels are typically from China, Vietnam, or the Middle East. A similar sale occurred in June, with the 2006-built VLCC Alter Ego sold to Middle Eastern buyers for between $42 million and $43.5 million. The Alter Ego, now renamed Dorys and reflagged in Gambia, became the first ship under Azerbaijan-based Horizon Marine Management.

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Trump, Tech and Energy Leaders Unveil $90 Billion AI and Energy Push at U.S. Summit

President Donald Trump joined tech and energy executives in Pittsburgh for the Energy and Innovation Summit, announcing $90 billion in AI and energy investments to cement U.S. leadership in artificial intelligence. Companies like Google, CoreWeave, and Blackstone revealed multibillion-dollar projects, including massive hydropower deals and data center infrastructure in Pennsylvania. The summit, hosted by Senator Dave McCormick, highlighted the growing power demands of AI, prompting discussion of federal support, including grid connection reforms and streamlined permitting. Trump vowed to reduce regulatory barriers, with his administration preparing an AI Action Plan by July 23 to accelerate deployment and maintain U.S. dominance over rivals like China. The surge in AI-linked power needs is already leading to historic collaborations between tech firms and energy providers, amid mounting concerns over supply, costs, and grid stability.

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Google Signs $3 Billion Hydropower Deal to Power AI Data Centers in Landmark Clean Energy Pact

Google has signed a $3 billion, 20-year hydropower deal with Brookfield Asset Management, securing up to 3 gigawatts of clean energy from two upgraded facilities in Pennsylvania — the largest corporate hydroelectric power agreement to date. This move supports Google’s expanding data center operations across the Mid-Atlantic and Midwest, which are driving surging electricity demand due to AI and cloud computing. As part of the initiative, Google also plans to invest $25 billion in new data centers in Pennsylvania and neighboring states. The company continues to pursue first-of-their-kind clean energy deals, including geothermal and nuclear, and is working with PJM Interconnection to streamline power grid integration using AI. The announcement will coincide with an AI summit in Pittsburgh, where President Trump is expected to unveil $70 billion in energy and AI investments.