Oil Prices Drop Over $1 as Market Awaits Trump’s Next Move on Russia Sanctions

Oil prices fell more than $1 on Monday as markets reacted to President Trump's 50-day grace period before potentially imposing sanctions on buyers of Russian oil, reducing fears of an immediate supply shock. Brent settled at $69.21 and WTI at $66.98, both down over 1.6%. Traders had initially priced in harsher sanctions, but the delay softened sentiment, especially with doubts that the U.S. will target major importers like China and India. At the same time, concerns about upcoming U.S. tariffs on key trade partners like the EU and South Korea added pressure to the market. A slight buffer was provided by China’s rising oil imports and indications of tightness in key inventory locations, despite the IEA forecasting a modest global surplus.

___________________________________

Trump Reverses Course, Sends Weapons to Ukraine and Threatens Sanctions on Russian Oil Buyers

President Donald Trump announced a major shift in U.S. policy by committing billions of dollars in weapons to Ukraine, including Patriot missile systems, while also threatening secondary sanctions on countries purchasing Russian oil unless Moscow agrees to a peace deal within 50 days. The move was made during a meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and reflects Trump's growing frustration with President Putin’s continued attacks on Ukraine. Trump’s announcement was welcomed in Kyiv but met with some skepticism, while Russian markets recovered slightly due to the grace period offered before sanctions take effect. Trump also signaled willingness to impose 100% tariffs on Russian goods and hinted that 17 Patriot systems from other NATO countries may be redirected to Ukraine. This policy reversal may pressure Russia toward negotiations, especially if enforcement of broader sanctions is intensified.

___________________________________

China’s June Crude Imports Surge to Nearly Two-Year High on Lower Prices, Refinery Recovery

China imported 12.14 million barrels per day of crude oil in June, the highest daily rate since August 2023, as lower global prices in April and May encouraged strong buying under term contracts. The rebound followed widespread refinery maintenance earlier in the year, with resumed operations pushing June demand to 15.17 million bpd, up from 14.8 million in May. Imports from Saudi Arabia and Iran rose sharply, with cheaper prices driving increased purchases by Chinese refiners. Meanwhile, refined fuel exports dipped slightly year-on-year, and natural gas imports dropped by 7.8%. According to the IEA, China's strategic stockpiling added 82 million barrels in Q2 2025, tightening global market supply.

___________________________________

China's Iranian Oil Imports Surge in June Amid Geopolitical Tensions

China’s imports of Iranian crude oil surged to over 1.7 million bpd in June, the highest since March. with a spike driven by early-month loadings before Israel's strike on Iran. The early-June loadings peaked at 2.5 million bpd, as sellers rushed to minimize geopolitical risk. Despite U.S. sanctions, Iranian oil flows remain resilient, aided by faster logistics and steady demand from Chinese independent refiners, or "teapots." However, July imports are expected to decline due to reduced refining activity, with teapot run rates at just 46%. Refiners are now securing deeper discounts, with Iranian crude priced $4 below Brent, compared to a $2 discount in May.

___________________________________

ConocoPhillips Targets New Arctic Oil in Alaska’s Largest Exploration Push Since 2020

ConocoPhillips has filed to drill four new exploratory wells and conduct seismic surveys in Alaska’s National Petroleum Reserve, marking its biggest Arctic exploration campaign in years. The project, near its $8 billion Willow development, aligns with President Trump’s push to boost domestic oil and could help sustain the state’s aging infrastructure. Environmental groups oppose the expansion due to its risks to Arctic wildlife and climate goals, while industry supporters argue the world still needs long-term oil supply. If approved, drilling would begin this winter via temporary ice roads, with any production likely years away. The company is investing heavily in Alaska, with up to 750 workers involved and hopes of uncovering conventional oil reserves that could outlast declining shale output elsewhere in the U.S.

___________________________________

Dangote Plans Deep Seaport in Nigeria to Boost Industrial and LNG Exports

Aliko Dangote has filed to build a deep seaport in Olokola, Ogun state, near his refinery and fertilizer complex, to enhance exports and streamline logistics for his expanding industrial empire. The port will rival existing facilities like the Lekki Deep Sea Port and reconnect Dangote with a site he once abandoned due to local disputes that have now been resolved. The billionaire also aims to export LNG by constructing a pipeline from Nigeria’s gas-rich Niger Delta to Lagos. Dangote’s group already uses gas for fertilizer production and plans to launch a 4,000-vehicle fuel distribution fleet starting in August, drawing accusations of monopolizing the market — which he denies. The project underscores Dangote’s ambitions to outpace Nigeria LNG Ltd. and drive Africa’s energy infrastructure development.

___________________________________

Unipec Maintains No.1 Spot in Crude Tanker Fixtures for H1 2025

China’s Unipec booked 380 crude tankers in the first half of 2025, keeping its position as the largest charterer. This is more than twice the number fixed by second-place TotalEnergies (181). Unipec’s fixture numbers dropped from 422 in H1 2024 to 380 this year, largely due to increased imports from sanctioned countries (Iran, Russia) and a rise in off-market trades. Total fixture volume in the market declined by 4.5% YoY, reflecting more hidden trades and charterers’ reluctance to disclose activity.

* VLCC

- Unipec: 315 fixtures — still far ahead of competitors

- Petrobras: 53 fixtures — driven by rising exports to Asia

- TotalEnergies: now in 3rd place

* Suezmax

- TotalEnergies: 69 fixtures — jumped from 7th to 1st

- Chevron: 62 fixtures

- Trafigura: returned to top 10 in this segment

* Aframax

- Vitol: nearly 60 fixtures — ranked 1st

- Followed by TotalEnergies and Heritage Energy

- Chevron dropped from 1st to 4th

- Total aframax fixtures declined 14%, from 1,254 to 1,081 YoY

___________________________________

Itochu Orders $34M Ammonia Bunker Tanker, Expands Green Fuel Push

Japanese trading giant Itochu has ordered a ¥5 billion ($34 million) ammonia bunkering tanker from Sasaki Shipbuilding, set for delivery in September 2027, as it positions itself in the decarbonized shipping fuels market. The 5,000-cbm vessel, with a fuel tank built by Izumi Steel Works, will undergo trials in Singapore before beginning operations in 2028. Itochu, which already partners with K Line on ammonia-fueled bulkers, is targeting leadership in next-generation marine fuel solutions. The order comes amid growing momentum in ammonia-powered shipping, with over 25 ammonia-fueled vessels on order and 130 dual-fuel ships globally. Separately, Itochu has partnered with Norway’s Stolt-Nielsen to develop green methanol bunkering and storage in China, expanding its footprint in alternative fuels.

___________________________________

India Reaches 50% Non-Fossil Power Milestone Five Years Ahead of 2030 Target

India has achieved 50% of its installed electricity capacity from non-fossil fuel sources—meeting its Paris Agreement target five years early, the government announced. In the first half of 2025, renewable energy output grew at its fastest rate since 2022, while coal-fired generation declined nearly 3%. Despite this progress, fossil fuels still contributed over two-thirds of the total generation increase last year, and India plans to add 80 GW of new coal capacity by 2032 to meet demand. The country added 28 GW of solar and wind capacity in 2024, and another 16.3 GW in the first five months of 2025, bringing total renewable capacity (excluding large hydro) to 184.6 GW by the end of June. India is also investing in battery storage, green hydrogen, and recycling to support long-term decarbonization.