Oil Prices Stabilize After Weekly Plunge Amid OPEC+ Output Hike and Ceasefire

Oil prices stabilized slightly on Friday after a report that OPEC+ plans to raise output by 411,000 barrels per day in August, though prices still recorded a steep 12% weekly drop — the largest since March 2023. Brent crude settled at $67.77 a barrel (up $0.04), and U.S. WTI ended at $65.52 (up $0.28), recovering from a midday dip. The sharp weekly decline followed a ceasefire between Israel and Iran after a 12-day conflict that had briefly pushed Brent above $80 before dropping back. Analysts noted the market has shifted back to being driven by fundamentals, with demand expectations and inventory drawdowns providing short-term support. U.S. data showed falling crude and fuel inventories alongside rising demand, while gasoil stocks at the ARA hub and Singapore's middle distillates also hit multi-month lows. Meanwhile, China’s imports of Iranian oil hit a record 1.8 million barrels per day in June, as independent refiners ramped up purchases ahead of the conflict.

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OPEC+ Eyes Further Output Boost Amid Global Demand Recovery and Market Share Push

OPEC+ is poised to increase oil production by another 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) in August, potentially raising its total 2025 supply hike to 1.78 million bpd—about 1.5% of global demand. This accelerated reversal of previous cuts follows years of output reductions totaling over 5 million bpd, as the group shifts focus to regaining market share lost to rivals like the U.S. during the cut period. Member countries such as Kazakhstan had previously exceeded targets, causing internal friction and prompting a policy shift led by the group of eight (including Saudi Arabia, Russia, UAE, and others). Analysts expect the August hike to proceed, although some insiders suggest a larger increase may be discussed at the July 6 meeting. A recent Israel-Iran ceasefire and potential easing of U.S. enforcement on Iran have added complexity, as Iranian supply could return to the market. Oil prices have been volatile, spiking above $81 in late June before retreating to $68, reflecting both geopolitical shifts and supply expectations.

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China’s Iranian Oil Imports Hit Record High in June Amid Rising Teapot Demand and Pre-Conflict Surge

China’s oil imports from Iran surged to record levels in June, reaching over 1.8 million bpd from June 1–20, driven by rising shipments before the Israel-Iran conflict and increased demand from independent "teapot" refineries. Analysts expect imports to remain elevated due to strong early-June shipments and low inventories at Chinese refiners. Market sentiment was further influenced by speculation that the U.S. might ease enforcement of sanctions, despite President Trump’s ongoing “maximum pressure” rhetoric. Meanwhile, discounts on Iranian Light crude narrowed to about $2 below Brent as geopolitical tensions briefly raised fears of a Strait of Hormuz disruption. Despite a slowdown in the second half of June, Iran’s exports remained largely uninterrupted.

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Trump Hints at Sanctions Relief for Iran Amid Nuclear Tensions and Ceasefire

President Donald Trump suggested that U.S. sanctions on Iran could be lifted if the country proves it can act peacefully, despite having just launched strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. Speaking on Fox News, Trump said sanctions would remain for now but left the door open for diplomacy if Iran refrains from further aggression. He claimed U.S. strikes had "obliterated" key parts of Iran's nuclear program, though IAEA Director Rafael Grossi disputed that, saying damage was severe but not total. Grossi warned that Iran could resume uranium enrichment within months if it chooses to. Senator Lindsey Graham added that Iran should recognize Israel’s right to exist before any meaningful talks resume, a demand likely to complicate negotiations. Despite mixed signals from Trump on oil trade and sanctions enforcement, his administration maintains that Iran’s nuclear threat remains active and unresolved.

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California Energy Regulator Urges More Fuel Imports and Pauses Refiners’ Profit Cap Amid Refinery Closures

California’s energy regulator recommended new measures to boost private investment in fuel imports and proposed pausing the state’s refiner profit cap to prevent sharp gasoline price increases following planned refinery closures by Phillips 66 and Valero. These two plants account for about 20% of California’s refining capacity, raising concerns over supply shortages in one of the world’s largest fuel markets. Gasoline prices in California currently average $4.61 per gallon, significantly higher than the national average of $3.21. The regulator also urged stabilizing crude oil production, which has declined from over 1 million bpd in the 1980s to under 300,000 bpd last year. Consumer and environmental groups sharply criticized the proposals, calling them a bailout for refiners and urging the state to instead enforce price gouging penalties and minimum inventory requirements. The California Energy Commission did not comment on the backlash but emphasized the need for further analysis of the profit cap program’s effectiveness.

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U.S. Delays Sanctions on Serbia’s Russian-Owned NIS Oil Firm for Fourth Time

The United States has postponed sanctions against Serbia's NIS oil company, majority-owned by Russia's Gazprom Neft and Gazprom, for a fourth time—extending the reprieve until July 29. NIS, which runs Serbia’s only refinery in Pancevo with a 4.8 million ton annual capacity, plays a crucial role in meeting national oil demand. The original U.S. sanctions on Russia’s oil sector were issued on January 10, with Gazprom Neft given 45 days to divest its stake in NIS. Although Gazprom Neft reduced its stake to 44.85% and transferred 5.15% to Gazprom, sanctions remained a threat. Serbian Energy Minister Dubravka Djedovic Handanovic confirmed the reprieve, calling it the result of "a hard and tiring diplomatic struggle." NIS sources 80% of its crude via Croatia’s Janaf pipeline, and sanctions could severely disrupt Serbia’s energy supply if enforced.

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Zelenskyy Urges EU to Sanction Shadow Fleet, Tanker Masters, and Russian Ports Over Oil Trade

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has called on the EU to impose tougher sanctions on Russia, including blacklisting tanker masters, oil export terminals, and shadow fleet vessels facilitating Russian crude exports. His appeal follows the EU’s failure to pass its 18th sanctions package, blocked by Hungary and Slovakia, which still rely heavily on Russian pipeline oil. Zelenskyy criticized continued European exports of weapons components to Russia and urged a stricter oil price cap—cutting it from $60 to $30 per barrel. Proposals to ban refined product imports made from Russian oil have reportedly been shelved due to concerns over U.S. support, with figures like U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio opposing stronger measures. Analysts warn the sanctions could affect up to 77 more vessels and cause shifts in the tanker market, including more mainstream ships entering sanctioned trades and older vessels migrating into the "dark fleet." Zelenskyy stressed that high oil revenues fuel Russia’s war ambitions and warned that EU hesitation may undermine its credibility on global commitments.

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Kazakhstan’s TCO Begins Oil Exports to Germany via Druzhba Pipeline Amid Export Diversification

Kazakhstan’s Tengizchevroil (TCO) exported its first shipment of 100,000 metric tons of oil to Germany via the Russian Druzhba pipeline, marking a significant step in diversifying its export routes. TCO, which operates the country’s largest oilfield, Tengiz, is a joint venture led by Chevron (50%), ExxonMobil (25%), KazMunayGaz (20%), and Lukoil (5%). Kazakhstan typically exports 80% of its oil through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium to Russia’s Black Sea terminal but is seeking alternatives due to geopolitical risks. The Druzhba pipeline exports are expected to reach 2 million tons in 2025, up from 1.5 million tons this year—equivalent to about 40,000 barrels per day. Chevron has also launched a $48 billion expansion of the Tengiz field, which is complex due to high sulfur content and extreme climate conditions. To avoid confusion with Russian Urals crude under sanctions, Kazakhstan brands its oil as KEBCO (Kazakhstan Export Blend Crude Oil).

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Vietnam’s Refineries Remain Stable Despite Middle East Tensions

Vietnam’s Ministry of Industry and Trade reported that its refineries are currently unaffected by Middle East tensions and continue normal operations. The country plans to import 5.1 million tons of refined petroleum products in the second half of 2025, a 6.2% increase from the first half. Binh Son Refining and Petrochemical’s 130,000-barrel-per-day refinery operated at 114.4% of its designed capacity in the first half and is expected to run 14%-15% above capacity for the remainder of the year. This refinery sources 30%-35% of its crude from Libya and West Africa. Nghi Son Refining & Petrochemical’s 200,000-barrel-per-day refinery reported sufficient crude supplies and normal operations. Both refineries are forecasted to produce a combined 7.7 million tons of crude oil in H2 2025, slightly down from 7.8 million tons in H1.

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Venezuela’s Cardon Refinery Begins Restart After Power Blackout

Venezuela’s state-owned PDVSA is restarting multiple units at its 310,000 bpd Cardon refinery following a recent power blackout. The outage halted operations earlier in the week, highlighting ongoing electricity reliability issues within the country’s aging refining infrastructure. As of Wednesday, two of the refinery’s four crude distillation units were processing oil, together producing about 100,000 barrels per day—roughly one-third of Cardon’s capacity. Additional related plants have also resumed operations, and workers are preparing to restart the reformer unit. Frequent power interruptions continue to threaten fuel availability in Venezuela, contributing to periodic shortages. The recovery at Cardon is a key step toward stabilizing refining output amid the country’s energy challenges.

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Armed Pirates Board Tanker in Singapore Strait Amid Surge in Asian Maritime Attacks

Four armed men boarded a Cameroon-flagged tanker in the piracy-prone Phillip Channel, northwest of Indonesia's Kapalajernih Island, while the vessel was sailing at 11 knots with a 6.7-meter freeboard. One of the intruders was reportedly armed with a "gun-like object," and engine parts were stolen before the group fled after the ship’s alarm was raised. All crew members were reported safe, and the vessel continued its journey to the Singapore anchorage. Maritime intelligence firm Ambrey Analytics urged heightened vigilance in the Singapore Strait, recommending secured access to key areas and avoidance of direct confrontation. This incident follows a similar boarding in May involving a Hong Kong-flagged bulker and a separate, more violent attack in Bangladesh where 14 pirates looted the Shejyoti and tied up crew members. These events highlight a growing regional trend of piracy, especially in Southeast Asian shipping lanes.

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IMO to Revise Nuclear Ship Safety Code in Landmark Step for Maritime Innovation

The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has agreed to update its regulations for nuclear-powered ships, marking a "major milestone" in advancing maritime nuclear propulsion. The decision, made during the 110th session of the Maritime Safety Committee, initiates the revision of the outdated Code of Safety for Nuclear Merchant Ships and related sections of the SOLAS Convention. The updates aim to incorporate modern nuclear technologies beyond traditional pressurized water reactors, including the all-electric-ship concept. UK-based start-up Core Power, which is developing a fast-spectrum molten salt reactor for marine use, praised the move and emphasized the importance of adapting rules to reflect next-generation systems. The IAEA will also support the effort by launching the “Atomic Technology Licensed for Application at Sea” project later this year, to help shape global regulatory frameworks. Core Power is expanding its international presence and client base as it prepares to lead a new era of civilian nuclear shipping.