Oil Prices Edge Up on U.S. Demand Strength, but Mideast Tensions Ease

Oil prices inched up on Thursday, supported by strong U.S. demand and falling crude inventories, while diminishing supply concerns in the Middle East capped gains. Brent crude rose 5 cents to $67.73, and WTI climbed 32 cents to $65.24 per barrel. U.S. stockpiles dropped by 5.8 million barrels last week—far exceeding forecasts—as the summer driving season gained traction. A weaker dollar also boosted oil's appeal. However, easing geopolitical risks, including progress toward a ceasefire between Israel and Iran and possible softening of U.S. sanctions enforcement, tempered upward momentum. Analysts expect price stability, with geopolitical tensions still in flux.

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Asia’s Crude Imports Surge in June, but Rising Prices Threaten Outlook

Asia’s crude oil imports jumped to 28.65 million bpd in June 2025, the highest since January 2023, lifting H1 average imports to 27.36 million bpd — up 620,000 bpd year-on-year. China led with 11.96 million bpd, and India followed with 5.26 million. However, analysts warn the spike likely reflects opportunistic buying during April–May’s low oil prices, not stronger underlying demand. With Brent crude now rebounding and demand stagnant in both China and India, imports may decline from August. Refining data shows minimal growth, suggesting increased crude is going to storage rather than end-use.

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Kazakhstan Cuts June Oil Exports to Germany, Keeps 2025 Target Intact

Kazakhstan’s oil exports to Germany will drop to 160,000 tons in June, down from 230,000 tons in May, according to state energy firm KazMunayGaz. Despite the monthly dip, 2025 exports via Russia’s Druzhba pipeline are still projected to reach 2 million tons (about 40,000 bpd), up from 1.5 million tons last year. To distinguish from Russia’s sanctioned Urals blend, Kazakhstan markets its crude under the KEBCO (Kazakhstan Export Blend Crude Oil) label.

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VLCC Rates Collapse as Middle East Tensions Cool

VLCC spot rates have plunged after a fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran calmed market fears. Clarksons reported a 22% drop in VLCC fleet weighted averages on Thursday, with the Middle East-to-China route falling nearly 28% to $46,300 per day for standard ships. Rates had spiked earlier in the week amid war-driven supply fears, briefly touching six figures on some rumoured charters. Jefferies’ Omar Nokta noted the pullback aligns with easing conflict risks. Deals once anticipated at over $100,000 per day, such as those involving the Zourva and VL Prosperity, failed to materialize. Now, charterers are securing ships at half those rates or lower, with Unipec fixing the Kalamos at just $30,900 per day. The dramatic swing underscores the fragility of recent gains and the market’s high sensitivity to geopolitical developments.

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Marco Rubio Questions U.S. Support for Tougher Russian Sanctions Amid Ceasefire Talks

U.S. Senator Marco Rubio has cast doubt on Washington’s willingness to back European calls for harsher sanctions on Russia’s energy sector, citing concerns it could jeopardize ceasefire negotiations. Speaking to Politico ahead of NATO’s annual meeting, Rubio emphasized the importance of maintaining dialogue with Russia and suggested President Trump will decide when to adjust the approach. His remarks surprised NATO foreign ministers and contrasted with reports that the U.S. Senate may push for stricter sanctions. A senior U.S. official highlighted Rubio’s consistent focus on balancing peace talks, sanction risks, and potential new blacklistings. This shift follows Trump’s recent unexpected easing on Iranian oil sanctions, signaling a complex and evolving U.S. stance on sanctions policy.

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Sanctioned Russian Arctic LNG 2 May Restart Exports as Tanker Approaches

An LNG tanker, Iris (formerly North Sky), is nearing Russia’s Arctic LNG 2 terminal—potentially marking the first visit in eight months to the US-sanctioned site. While Iris lists its destination as nearby Sabetta port, it bypassed that facility earlier, indicating a likely approach to Arctic LNG 2. The ship has lower ice-class capability, making summer navigation feasible. If it loads, this would suggest Russia’s renewed push to revive Arctic LNG 2 exports, despite Western sanctions. The facility halted large-scale operations in October after struggling to find buyers amid mounting restrictions. Satellite data still show ice in the area, though authorities have cleared Arc4-class vessels to operate there without icebreaker support.

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QatarEnergy Suspends Night Navigation at Mesaieed Export Hub Amid GPS Jamming Concerns

QatarEnergy has suspended night navigation for tankers and gas carriers approaching its Mesaieed export hub due to widespread GPS signal jamming linked to the Israel-Iran conflict. Navigation restrictions, effective since June 23, limit vessel movements in the channel from 6pm to 5am local time, with pilot services only available during daylight hours. The jamming has affected vessel positioning and buoy light reliability, raising safety concerns. This may delay cargo loadings, impacting exports of crude, refined products, and LPG. Meanwhile, LNG carriers are being instructed to time their transit through the Strait of Hormuz narrowly, with some vessels observed holding off nearby waters amid unusual navigational behavior and potential AIS spoofing.

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Shipowners Spend $55B on Newbuilds Despite Slump in Orders and Market Uncertainty

Shipowners have invested $55.2 billion in new vessels during January–May 2025, down 41% from last year but still nearly 30% above the 10-year average, according to Clarksons Research. Global economic volatility and shifting U.S. trade policies have dampened newbuild appetite, with bulker, tanker, LNG carrier, and car carrier orders dropping sharply. Container ship orders remain resilient, just 11% below 2024 levels. Despite easing prices, high-spec, alternative-fuel-capable ships are driving spending, with 58% of gross tonnage ordered using LNG, methanol, or other alternative fuels. The global orderbook remains elevated at 5,948 ships.

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China's CSSC Claims World’s First Ship-to-Ship Transfer of Liquefied CO₂

China State Shipbuilding Corp (CSSC) has conducted what it says is the world’s first ship-to-ship (STS) transfer of liquefied CO₂, performed at Yangshan Deep-Water Port on 19 June. The operation, involving onboard carbon capture, liquefaction, and storage (OCCS), achieved over 80% capture efficiency and 99.9% purity. The STS method bypasses the need for specialized terminal infrastructure, addressing a key bottleneck in large-scale CO₂ handling. CSSC’s unit, SMDERI-QET, plans to develop international standards to support the wider adoption of maritime carbon capture and transport.

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Fermi America Unveils Ambitious Nuclear-Gas-Solar Energy and AI Complex in Texas

Fermi America, co-founded by ex-Energy Secretary Rick Perry, plans to build the world’s largest integrated energy and AI data complex—“Hypergrid”—near Amarillo, Texas, in partnership with Texas Tech. The 5,800-acre site aims to generate up to 11 GW using nuclear, gas, and solar, with 1 GW expected online by late 2026. The project, tied to President Trump’s push to fast-track nuclear development, includes large AI data centers and is strategically located near gas pipelines and the DOE’s Pantex plant. Applications for four 1-GW nuclear reactors are under NRC review. Cost and full timeline remain undisclosed.