Oil Prices Tumble 6% as Ceasefire Eases Middle East Supply Fears

Oil prices dropped by over 6% on Tuesday, with Brent crude settling at $67.14 per barrel and WTI at $64.37 — their lowest levels since early June — after a ceasefire was announced between Israel and Iran. The market reacted swiftly to the reduced threat of disruption to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, which handles about 18–19 million barrels per day, or nearly 20% of global supply. The geopolitical risk premium that had driven oil to five-month highs has now "entirely vanished," according to analyst Tamas Varga. Prices also declined after President Trump stated that China could continue importing Iranian oil and accused both Israel and Iran of ceasefire violations. Meanwhile, Kazakhstan raised its 2025 oil output forecast at the Tengiz field to 35.7 million metric tons, and Guyana’s oil production climbed to 667,000 bpd in May. Additionally, U.S. consumer confidence fell in June and analysts expect a 0.8 million barrel draw from U.S. stockpiles, which would mark five consecutive weeks of inventory declines.

___________________________________

China Doubles 2025 Naphtha Import Quotas to 24 Million Tons Amid U.S. Supply Disruptions

China has nearly doubled its 2025 naphtha import quotas to 24 million metric tons, up from last year’s level, as demand rises due to constrained U.S. supplies of cheaper alternatives like propane and ethane and new cracker startups. The second round of quotas issued in June allocated 12 million tons to 10 chemical companies, including Sinopec (2.49 million tons) and CNOOC (2.76 million tons), with ExxonMobil also receiving an allocation for its new 1.6 million tpy Huizhou cracker. Trade tensions and tariffs—up to 84% at one point—on U.S. propane, along with recent licensing requirements from the U.S. Commerce Department, have made propane and ethane less competitive. This has made naphtha cracking more attractive, especially amid rising petrochemical demand. In 2024, China imported 12.14 million tons of naphtha and brought in 5.9 million tons in the first five months of 2025, per customs data. China remains Asia’s third-largest naphtha importer, after South Korea and Japan.

___________________________________

China’s Oil Refiners Pull Back from Spot Market Amid Weak Demand and Falling Margins

Chinese oil refiners, particularly independent teapots, are reducing spot crude purchases — including discounted barrels from Iran and Russia— due to weakened domestic demand and deteriorating profit margins, which have hit a three-month low, according to JLC Ltd. Volatility in global prices and China’s policy of adjusting fuel prices only every 10 working days has worsened the impact on profits. Evidence of lower buying activity includes a buildup of 33.9 million barrels of Iranian crude in floating storage — the highest since December 2023 — and a doubling to 13.3 million barrels in the Malacca and Singapore Straits, key ship-to-ship transfer zones. Iranian crude is now offered at about $3 below Brent, while Russian barrels remain priced around $2 above the benchmark. Even state-owned refiners are seeing profitability trend downward in this challenging environment.

___________________________________

Nigeria’s Key Crude Exports to Climb 25% in August on Higher Output

Nigeria’s crude oil exports from four major grades—Qua Iboe, Bonny Light, Bonga, and Forcados—are set to rise to approximately 864,000 barrels per day (bpd) in August, up 25% from 694,000 bpd in July, according to preliminary loading programmes. Forcados leads with 313,000 bpd from 10 cargoes, followed by Bonny Light at 238,000 bpd (8 cargoes), Qua Iboe at 184,000 bpd (6 cargoes), and Bonga at 129,000 bpd (4 cargoes). The increase signals improved Nigerian production or scheduling after previous months of lower exports. The rise in supply may influence light sweet crude markets, especially in Europe and Asia where these grades are in demand. Final figures may be slightly adjusted as loading schedules are confirmed.

___________________________________

Argentina’s YPF Secures $1.7B Loan to Build VLCC-Ready Crude Pipeline from Vaca Muerta

Argentina’s state oil firm YPF has secured a $1.7 billion syndicated loan from global banks including Citi, Deutsche Bank, JP Morgan, Itau, and Santander to help fund the Vaca Muerta Oil Sur pipeline, a $2.5 billion project aimed at boosting VLCC crude exports. The 525-km pipeline will connect Anelo to Punta Colorada, where a new export terminal is being constructed to enable large-scale shipments, especially to Asia. With current production at 300,000 bpd, plans are in place to raise output to 1 million bpd by 2030, leveraging Argentina’s Vaca Muerta, which holds the world’s 2nd-largest shale gas and 4th-largest shale oil reserves. The pipeline’s initial capacity will be 550,000 bpd by H2 2027, expandable to 700,000 bpd. The loan, Argentina’s largest energy sector corporate credit deal in two decades, will be supplemented by a $400 million capital market issue and partner contributions. YPF CEO Horacio Marin said this infrastructure could lift Argentina’s oil and LNG exports by $15 billion annually by 2031.

___________________________________

Syria Exports First Oil Cargo Since Assad’s Fall Under US Sanctions Waiver

Syria has exported its first refined oil product cargo since the fall of Bashar al-Assad, using an MR tanker from the so-called “grey fleet”, which operates between legitimate and sanctioned trades. The cargo was enabled by a U.S. sanctions waiver granted to the interim Syrian government, allowing transactions critical to energy and infrastructure. Since Iran halted crude supply post-coup, Russia has sent at least four large crude cargoes and multiple diesel shipments to Syria’s Baniyas refinery, which, alongside Homs, is operating at roughly 70,000 bpd out of a combined 230,000 bpd capacity. The grey-fleet tanker is now signaling arrival in Rotterdam on June 30, marking Syria’s re-entry into global refined product markets. Separately, the 160,000-dwt Olivia (aka Mitzel) carried 1 million barrels of Russian crude from Murmansk to Syria, likely one of the first major oil movements under the new framework. Analysts expect Syria to continue fuel import tenders until refinery operations stabilize.

___________________________________

Minerva Marine VLCC Fixture Collapses Amid Israel-Iran Ceasefire Turmoil and Rate Volatility

A headline-grabbing VLCC charter involving Minerva Marine’s Zourva at $107,000/day for a 48-day Kuwait-to-Asia voyage failed after the Israel-Iran ceasefire briefly emerged and then quickly unraveled. The 318,500-dwt tanker had been expected to earn $5.1 million, the highest spot rate since 2023, but Kuwait Petroleum Corp (KPC) reportedly withdrew. Another KPC fixture, VL Prosperity, at $98,000/day also failed, despite a quoted $115,000/day round-voyage rate. Amid tight prompt tonnage, rates surged, with the Baltic Exchange assessing the Middle East-to-Asia VLCC rate at $75,900/day, up 18% from Friday. Analysts warn that ample vessel availability and fading geopolitical risk premiums could lead to softer rates, while some owners still avoid the Middle East Gulf. Market sentiment remains volatile, with charterers scrambling and BRS reporting “sky high” expectations despite forward rate declines.

___________________________________

Yasa Holding Expands VLCC Fleet with $67M Purchase, Sells Older Tanker and Bulker

Turkish shipowner Yasa Holding is reportedly acquiring the 314,000-dwt VLCC C Spirit (built 2013) from SK Shipping for $67M to $67.5M, following a similar 2022 purchase of sister ship C Passion (now Yasa Scorpion) for $62M. If confirmed, this brings Yasa’s VLCC fleet to three units. The group has also sold the 110,800-dwt aframax Yasa Golden Marmara (built 2008) to Vietnamese buyers for $31M, and its bulker arm offloaded the 55,900-dwt Yasa Pembe (built 2007) for $12.25M, below last year’s $13.9M sale of a sister ship. While selling older assets, Yasa Shipping is ramping up its dry bulk fleet with seven newbuilds delivered in 2025, including four ultramaxes from Cosco and three handysizes from Jiangmen Nanyang. Yasa now controls over 40 bulkers across size categories, reflecting a fleet renewal strategy amid sustained market activity in the secondhand and newbuilding segments.

___________________________________

Petrovietnam Plans to Expand Fleet with up to 24 Tankers and Gas Carriers in 2025

Vietnam’s state-owned Petrovietnam plans to acquire 19 to 24 secondhand tankers and VLGCs in 2025, including 3 to 6 vessels purchased by the parent company and the rest by shipping arm PV Trans. In 2024, PV Trans only acquired 2 of 4 planned vessels due to market conditions but aims to invest in 7 to 8 ships this year with a budget of VND 3.5 trillion ($135 million), focusing on aframax tankers, VLGCs, chemical carriers, and MRs. PV Trans currently operates 58 vessels, and the broader group has 112 ships, including offshore and storage units. The company achieved record 2024 revenue of VND 11.7 trillion and net profit of VND 1.5 trillion, with ship sales contributing VND 180 billion. It now targets 2025 revenue of VND 10.3 trillion and profit of VND 960 billion, with Q1 2025 earnings down 9% despite a 10% revenue rise. PV Trans is also issuing 113.9 million shares to pay dividends and increase capital.

___________________________________

LNG Freight Rates Surge to 8-Month High Amid Tight Tanker Supply and Middle East Conflict

Global LNG freight rates have surged to their highest levels in eight months due to limited vessel availability and growing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Atlantic rates for 174,000-cbm two-stroke LNG carriers rose to $51,750/day, and Pacific rates reached $36,750/day, the highest since October. The increase is driven by more tankers rerouting to Asia amid balanced pricing between Europe and Asia, leading to longer voyage times and tighter spot supply. Egypt's tender to buy up to 160 LNG cargoes through 2026 has added further pressure on vessel demand. Escalating Israel-Iran conflict has pushed up war risk insurance premiums—reportedly by up to fivefold—especially for tankers navigating the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial route for Qatar’s LNG exports. As shipowners hesitate to charter vessels due to rising security risks, rates are expected to remain elevated.

___________________________________

Oil-Eating Microbes Pioneer Underground Clean Hydrogen Production

Houston-based startup Gold H2 has completed a world-first field trial producing hydrogen underground by using microbes to break down oil in depleted reservoirs in California’s San Joaquin Basin. This biotechnology offers a potentially cheaper clean hydrogen alternative to traditional electrolysis, aiming to produce hydrogen at $0.50 per kilogram—competitive with natural gas. The microbes consume leftover oil and excrete hydrogen, which is then pumped to the surface, though the process currently yields hydrogen at only 40% purity, requiring costly purification. Gold H2’s emissions are estimated to be comparable to green hydrogen and significantly lower than fossil fuel-derived hydrogen. While federal clean hydrogen incentives in the US face uncertainty, the company is preparing for international projects in Canada, the Middle East, Europe, and Brazil. Scaling the technology remains a challenge but offers a novel way to utilize stranded oil assets for clean energy production.