Oil Falls Sharply as Trump Announces Israel-Iran Ceasefire

Oil prices dropped to their lowest in over a week following President Donald Trump’s announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, easing fears of supply disruptions. Brent crude fell 3.76% to $68.79 a barrel, while WTI dropped 3.94% to $65.46, after both had rallied on conflict-related tensions. The ceasefire, set to become permanent after 24 hours of compliance, marks the end of a 12-day conflict that had pushed oil to five-month highs. Analysts say the risk premium that inflated prices last week has now largely evaporated. With Iran being OPEC’s third-largest producer, de-escalation improves the outlook for stable exports. Technical resistance near $78 to $81 remains intact unless further unexpected supply shocks occur.

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Trump Urges Immediate U.S. Drilling Surge to Counter Oil Price Fears After Iran Strikes

After U.S. airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear sites, President Donald Trump called on the Department of Energy and energy market players to immediately ramp up oil and gas drilling to prevent price spikes. Posting “DRILL, BABY, DRILL” and warning “keep oil prices down,” Trump emphasized urgency despite no major supply disruptions. Energy Secretary Chris Wright responded supportively, though actual drilling decisions rest with private firms. Oil prices initially spiked nearly 6% before falling over 7% as Iran’s retaliation targeted a U.S. base in Qatar, not energy infrastructure. Trump officials touted American “energy dominance,” and hinted at tapping the Strategic Petroleum Reserve if supply is threatened. Doug Burgum, leading Trump’s new energy council, said U.S. production undermines regimes like Iran that weaponize energy.

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BP, Eni, TotalEnergies Evacuate Staff from Iraq Oilfields Amid Regional Tensions

Following U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites and rising Israel-Iran tensions, BP, Eni, and TotalEnergies have begun evacuating foreign staff from Iraqi oilfields as a precaution, according to the state-run Basra Oil Company. Despite these moves, production remains unaffected, with exports from Iraq's southern fields holding steady at 3.32 million bpd. BP pulled staff from Rumaila, Eni reduced personnel at Zubair, and TotalEnergies evacuated 60% of its workers. Chinese and Russian operators like Lukoil have maintained normal staffing. Meanwhile, Qatar temporarily closed its airspace as U.S. and UK authorities urged citizens there to shelter in place, given Iran’s renewed threats following the U.S. intervention.

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Hungary and Slovakia Block New EU Sanctions to Protect Russian Energy Imports

Hungary and Slovakia have jointly blocked the EU's 18th sanctions package against Russia, which included blacklisting 77 additional Russia-linked ships, to oppose the bloc’s broader REPowerEU plan aimed at ending all Russian energy imports by 2027. Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said the move was meant to safeguard Hungary’s energy security and preserve its exemption from the Russian oil ban. Slovakia, facing its own energy concerns, echoed the stance. Though both countries have previously softened sanctions, this marks their first outright veto. The EU can still enforce broader energy directives without unanimity, limiting the long-term impact of the blockade. Meanwhile, a plan to lower the Russian oil price cap from $60 to $45 was reportedly shelved over concerns about U.S. support.

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Russia’s Sakhalin-1 to Halt Sokol Crude Output in August for Maintenance

Russia’s Rosneft will suspend production of Sokol crude at the Sakhalin-1 project in August for 20–25 days due to scheduled maintenance, sources told Reuters. Output is expected to drop to 135,000 bpd in July ahead of the shutdown, from typical levels of 150,000–160,000 bpd. The Sakhalin-1 project has faced operational challenges since ExxonMobil's 2022 exit, with sanctions complicating exports, tanker access, and international payments. In 2024, cargoes of Sokol crude spent weeks in floating storage amid difficulty finding buyers. Rosneft now controls the project, formerly co-run with ExxonMobil, ONGC Videsh, and Japan’s SODECO.

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Venezuela's Cardon Refinery Remains Halted After Power Blackout

Venezuela's Cardon refinery, the country's second-largest with a capacity of 310,000 bpd and run by state oil firm PDVSA, remained offline Monday due to a power outage, sources said. Though electricity was restored later in the day, the facility lacked essential services like steam and air needed to resume operations. The aging refinery system frequently suffers from breakdowns tied to years of underinvestment, poor maintenance, and U.S. sanctions limiting spare parts. Cardon has recently played a key role in processing heavy crude from the Orinoco Belt. The nearby 645,000-bpd Amuay refinery was unaffected by the blackout.

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India's Crude Imports Hit Record High in May Amid Geopolitical Tensions and Rising Demand

India's crude oil imports rose to a record 23.32 million metric tons in May 2025, up 9.8% from April and 5.9% year-on-year, reflecting strong domestic demand and economic activity. The increase follows U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites, which raised concerns about Middle East oil supply disruptions and pushed global prices higher. Despite the geopolitical tensions, India reduced its Russian oil intake by 15.7% to 1.7 million barrels per day, while its overall fuel demand reached a 13-month high of 21.32 million metric tons. Imports of refined products fell 3.9% year-on-year to 4.2 million tons, while exports rose over 7% to 5.63 million tons, including notable increases in petrol, diesel, and jet fuel. Analysts suggest the surge in imports indicates both a resilient economy and possible stockpiling in anticipation of further price increases. The figures remain preliminary, as private refiners report data at their discretion.

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VLCC Rates Surge Past $90,000 Amid Middle East Tensions and Shrinking Tonnage

VLCC spot rates are rapidly climbing, driven by geopolitical risk and tight tonnage in the Middle East Gulf. The Baltic Exchange pegged Middle East to Asia earnings at $64,300/day on Friday, with modern scrubber-fitted tankers quoted as high as $72,000. Notably, Pantheon Tankers' Sea Leopard was fixed at a striking $92,000/day by Hyundai Oilbank — the highest since December. Other fixtures include Atlantic Pioneer at $83,000 and Nave Synergy at $55,000. Sentosa and Gibson brokers highlight how June’s regional conflict pushed owners to "ladder up" the market, with late Saudi cargoes acting as a rate catalyst. If political tensions persist, further hikes are likely, although signs of de-escalation could stabilize the market.

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Product Tanker Market Surges Amid Israel Refinery Shutdown and Middle East Tensions

Clean tanker rates have soared as geopolitical disruptions, especially the closure of Israel’s 197,000 bpd Haifa refinery following Iranian missile strikes, drive up import demand. Baltic Exchange data shows LR2 rates rising 130% to $53,900/day and Pacific MR rates climbing 62% to $36,500/day. With Israel now relying more on imports, additional product flows are expected into Turkey and Cyprus. Brokers report volatile but bullish markets, with charterers racing to secure tonnage and owners holding firm on rates. Supply tightness in the Middle East Gulf and nervousness over regional risks have further lifted sentiment. Analysts expect sustained demand growth into summer, with Clarksons Securities noting stronger margins and widening diesel spreads in Europe as signs of continued strength in the product tanker market.