Oil Prices Dip as Markets Await U.S. Decision on Israel-Iran Conflict

Oil prices fell on Thursday as investors held back amid uncertainty over possible U.S. involvement in the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict. Brent crude dropped 0.48% to $76.33 per barrel, while U.S. WTI crude slipped 0.37% to $74.86. The market remains volatile as President Trump signaled ambiguity on whether the U.S. would join Israeli missile strikes, now in their seventh day. Analysts say a direct U.S. strike could push prices up by $5, while peace negotiations could lead to an equal-sized decline. The conflict has raised fears over disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for nearly 19 million barrels of oil and products per day. Meanwhile, the U.S. Federal Reserve held rates steady but suggested two cuts are likely this year, which could boost oil demand but also risk higher inflation due to planned tariffs.

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Ships Reroute Toward Oman as Threats Rise Near Strait of Hormuz

Commercial vessels are avoiding Iranian waters and sailing closer to Oman as conflict between Israel and Iran escalates, raising the risk of disruption near the strategic Strait of Hormuz. Maritime agencies, including Greece’s shipping ministry, have advised vessels—especially Greek-flagged ones—to steer clear of Iranian jurisdiction amid concerns over past violations of maritime safety. Though the Gulf of Oman offers wider international waters, ships still must pass through Hormuz, which narrows to just 21 miles, with shipping lanes only 2 miles wide in each direction. AIS data shows a buildup of vessels along Oman's coast, while Iranian-flagged ships remain closer to Iran. Electronic interference with navigation systems has also surged, compounding risks for oil-laden supertankers, whose average earnings have jumped to over $50,000 a day. The U.S.-led Combined Maritime Forces raised the regional maritime threat level, and QatarEnergy is now instructing tankers to delay entry into the Gulf until the day before loading.

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U.S. Crude Inventories Post Largest Draw in a Year; Fuel Stocks Rise

U.S. crude oil inventories dropped by 11.5 million barrels last week—the largest decline in a year—bringing total stocks to 420.9 million barrels, according to EIA data. Analysts had only expected a 1.8 million-barrel draw. Despite the sharp fall, crude futures declined, with Brent down $1.20 to $75.25 and WTI off $1.02 at $73.82, partly due to market reactions to President Trump's comments signaling Iran’s willingness to negotiate. Crude exports surged by 1.1 million bpd to 4.4 million bpd, while imports fell by the same amount. Refinery runs and utilization dipped slightly, with gasoline stocks edging up by 209,000 barrels and distillates by 514,000 barrels. Gasoline demand increased ahead of the peak summer driving season, reaching 9.3 million bpd. However, total product supplied over four weeks remains slightly below last year’s level, hinting at lingering demand weakness.

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Frontline CEO Warns of ‘Dark Fleet Danger’ After VLCC Collision Near Hormuz

Frontline CEO Lars Barstad described the recent collision between the VLCC Front Eagle and the shadow fleet suezmax Adalynn as a “nightmare,” underscoring the growing risks posed by the so-called dark fleet. Speaking at Marine Money Week in New York, Barstad said the likely cause was a mechanical issue on the other vessel, not satellite jamming, though full data is still being reviewed. He emphasized the collision’s gravity, involving nearly 2 million barrels of crude, and criticized the lack of transparency from the dark fleet ship’s owners. Barstad warned the incident highlights the elevated risks in a market distorted by shadow operations, even as tanker stocks and earnings surge in 2025.

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Indian Managers Behind Shadow Fleet Tanker in Frontline Collision

The suezmax Adalynn, involved in a recent collision with Frontline’s Front Eagle off the UAE, is managed by Oceanpack Ship Management, led by Indian nationals Mahesh Purushothaman Nair and Sudhir Govindrao Pawar. The pair have been linked to a network of companies in Navi Mumbai, including Marine Max Ship Management, Eastern Euro Ship Management, and Hamburg Marine Lines, which have collectively acquired multiple older tankers now involved in transporting Russian crude. These vessels, such as Carcharodon, Elise, Lark, and Eliana I, have undergone frequent name and flag changes, a typical trait of the dark fleet. Some are reportedly insured by Norway’s Hydor. Despite different company names, all entities are interconnected through shared addresses and directors, suggesting a coordinated strategy to build a shipping operation that supports shadow fleet trade. The Adalynn incident has intensified scrutiny on such opaque ownership structures and their role in high-risk oil movements.

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UK Targets Russia’s Shadow Fleet with New Shipping Sanctions Amid G7 Summit

The UK has imposed new sanctions on 20 Russian-linked oil tankers, crewing companies, and a bunker supplier in a bid to slash President Putin’s oil revenues. Announced by Prime Minister Keir Starmer at the G7 summit in Canada, the blacklist includes shadow fleet crewing firms Orion Star Group and Valegro, and Rosneft Marine, a subsidiary of Rosneft. Intelligence unit GUGI was also sanctioned over suspected involvement in damaging undersea communications. Several of the tankers were already sanctioned by the EU, including the aging Jazz, which had a breakdown in the Gulf of Finland in December, raising safety concerns. The UK’s move coincides with EU-led efforts to lower the Russian crude price cap from $60 to $45 per barrel, as Russian export prices have remained under $60 for three months. However, these efforts face opposition within the EU and limited support from the US, where President Trump left the summit early due to escalating Middle East tensions.

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Dangote Refinery to Export First Gasoline Cargo to Asia, Signaling Global Expansion

Nigeria’s Dangote refinery is set to export its first gasoline cargo to Asia, marking a significant shift in its trade strategy. A 90,000 metric ton shipment, brokered by Mercuria, is scheduled to load on June 22. Previously, the refinery’s gasoline exports were confined to West Africa. Dangote refinery stated it sells to the highest bidder, allowing buyers to choose the destination. Analysts interpret this move as a sign of the refinery’s growing global role and operational stability, suggesting it can now reliably meet domestic demand while tapping into international markets.

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Dangote Refinery Steps Into Tanker Time-Charter Market Amid Ramp-Up of Crude Imports

Africa’s largest refinery, Nigeria’s 650,000 bpd Dangote plant, has reportedly entered the tanker time-charter market, fixing the 164,750-dwt Barbarosa for a 9- to 11-month term. The suezmax, owned by Libya’s GNMTC, was last seen heading to West Africa, with London brokers estimating the charter rate at $33,500 to $34,500 per day. This move reflects Dangote’s growing logistical needs as it diversifies crude sources and ramps up operations. Recent imports include Brazilian Mero and Iracema crude delivered via a Hong Kong VLCC, and a domestic Egina crude cargo in April. Analysts note that the refinery's operational confidence is improving after resolving technical issues in its fluid catalytic cracker unit, which had limited throughput. The charter marks a significant shift in Dangote’s strategy, signaling increased global engagement and production stability.

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Russia’s Rail Gasoline Exports Jump 25% Amid Eased Embargo and Refinery Recovery

Russia increased its railway gasoline exports by 25% year-on-year between January and May 2025, reaching approximately 2.51 million metric tons, following a partial easing of its gasoline export embargo. Originally imposed in March 2024 to stabilize domestic fuel prices, the ban was later lifted for producers, though restrictions remain for traders and resellers. Despite disruptions from drone attacks on refineries like Lukoil's Nizhny Novgorod plant, exports rebounded. The Baltic port of Ust-Luga became the primary hub, with shipments up nearly 85% to 0.72 million tons, while Vysotsk volumes nearly doubled to 150,000 tons. However, gasoline exports to Mongolia declined by 17% to 304,000 tons. Following the EU’s embargo on Russian oil products in early 2023, Russia has shifted exports toward Africa, Asia, Turkey, and Brazil. In 2024, Russia produced 43.1 million tons of gasoline, exporting 4.4 million tons.