Crude Oil Prices Rise on U.S. Jobs Data and Renewed U.S.-China Trade Talks

Crude oil prices posted their first weekly gain in three weeks, with Brent settling at $66.47 (+1.73%) and WTI at $64.58 (+1.91%), driven by a stable U.S. jobs report and resumed trade negotiations with China. The U.S. added 139,000 jobs in May, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, signaling moderate growth that raises hopes for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Brent crude rose 2.75% and WTI gained 4.9% this week, reversing previous declines. U.S.-China trade talks reportedly reached a "very positive conclusion," according to President Trump, supporting sentiment. Meanwhile, OPEC+ confirmed a planned 411,000 bpd output increase in July, despite Saudi Arabia pushing for more, and U.S. oil rig count fell by nine to 442, the lowest since November 2021. HSBC expects a balanced market through Q2 and Q3 as summer demand peaks.

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U.S. Light Sweet Crude Demand Falls Amid OPEC+ Output Surge and Global Supply Growth

U.S. light sweet crude exports are declining as OPEC+ ramps up production—adding 1.37 million bpd since April—creating more options for European and Asian refiners. U.S. crude exports dropped from 4 million bpd in April to 3.8 million bpd in May, with WTI-Midland and Light Louisiana Sweet prices falling by 45% and 30%, respectively, from early March. European refiners are shifting to cheaper medium-sour grades, while Asian buyers find UAE’s Murban crude more cost-effective than U.S. exports. Additional competition comes from rising exports out of Kazakhstan, Brazil, Guyana, Libya, and Norway. Analysts expect further weakening of light sweet grades as global demand for heavier crude products grows. The Energy Information Administration projects global petroleum demand to rise by 970,000 bpd in 2025, yet this growth favors heavier grades better suited for producing high-value fuels.

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Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery Buys More U.S. Oil, Supporting Brent Prices

Nigeria’s Dangote refinery is increasingly sourcing crude from West Texas, with U.S. oil—mainly WTI Midland—making up a third of its 2025 intake, nearly double last year’s share. This shift reflects both rising refinery output and limited availability of Nigerian crude. Analysts say WTI offers operational advantages like better gasoline blending, while its diversion to Nigeria slightly tightens North Sea supply, indirectly supporting Brent benchmark prices. In June and July alone, Dangote is set to import 14 million barrels of WTI. Weaker Asian demand for U.S. crude has also made more WTI available to African buyers.

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Spain Halts Venezuelan Oil Imports Ahead of U.S. Sanctions Deadline

Spain imported no Venezuelan crude in April, as oil major Repsol complied with a U.S. sanctions deadline to cease operations in the country by May 27. The halt follows a surge in imports earlier in 2024, and comes after the U.S. revoked permits allowing Repsol to receive Venezuelan oil as debt repayment. A March executive order by Donald Trump imposed a 25% tariff on any country trading oil with Venezuela. Amid growing isolation, Venezuela is preparing to raise domestic fuel prices by 50% as it loses vital income from Chevron and other halted foreign operations. The hike—reportedly $0.25 to $0.75 per liter—is yet to be officially announced but reflects the Maduro government’s urgent search for revenue.

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Norway to Import Libyan Es Sider Crude for First Time in 11 Years

Norway is set to receive its first cargo of Libya’s Es Sider crude in over a decade, with Enesel’s tanker Kanaris 21 scheduled to load on 9 June and discharge at Mongstad on 23 June. This follows two earlier shipments of Libyan Sharara crude in 2025, indicating renewed interest in Libyan oil. Libya’s May exports held steady at 1.19 million bpd, with Italy remaining the top buyer. Meanwhile, political tension persists, as Libya’s eastern government threatens to disrupt exports, citing alleged attacks on the state oil firm NOC, which denies the claims and insists operations remain normal.

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India's May Fuel Demand Hits Highest Level in Over a Year

India's fuel consumption rose to 21.32 million metric tons in May, the highest in over a year, driven by strong gasoline and LPG demand, according to Oil Ministry data. This marked a 5.7% increase from April and a 1.1% rise from May 2024. Gasoline sales climbed 9.6% month-on-month and 9.2% year-on-year to 3.78 million tons, while diesel, the most widely used fuel, rose 4% from April and 2.1% from a year earlier to 8.59 million tons. LPG demand jumped 10.4% year-on-year to 2.66 million tons. Naphtha sales declined 8.3% annually to 1 million tons, though they rose 7.5% from April. Jet fuel demand increased to 0.78 million tons, up 5.4% from a year earlier. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo noted that growth in mobility-related fuels like gasoline and aviation fuel drove overall demand, while weakness in the petrochemical sector weighed on naphtha. India's private sector activity also accelerated in May, supporting the rise in fuel use.

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Petrobras Eyes Africa as Key Exploration Frontier Outside Brazil

Petrobras aims to make Africa its primary exploratory region outside Brazil, with CEO Magda Chambriard citing geological similarities and growing regional interest. The company was recently offered preferred access to nine offshore blocks in Ivory Coast and is in talks with Nigeria, Angola, and Namibia. These moves reflect Petrobras' renewed international focus, particularly as environmental permit delays hinder new drilling near Brazil’s Amazon coast. The company is also targeting India’s July oil block auction and expanding investments in South Africa and Sao Tome and Principe. Meanwhile, falling oil prices are prompting Petrobras to cut costs and simplify its 2026–2030 strategy. Domestically, Petrobras plans to restart two fertilizer plants by year-end and seeks more control over petrochemical firm Braskem to better align operations, despite holding a minority stake.

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Brazil-to-China VLCC Surge Offers Hope Amid Global Tanker Rate Slump

Tankers International reports a rise in VLCC shipments from Brazil to China, driven by increased Brazilian crude output, shifting geopolitics, and Chinese demand, providing a rare bright spot as global rates fall. Brazil's crude exports rebounded to 2 million bpd in March, with VLCC sailings from Brazil to China rising from 5 in January to 14 in March and remaining strong through May. The longer Brazil-China route ties up vessels for over 100 days, reducing global availability and supporting freight rates. While Middle East VLCC spot rates fell sharply, tighter US sanctions on sanctioned crude and tariffs on US oil are pushing Chinese refiners toward Brazilian barrels. Tankers International expects continued strength in this trade lane to bolster the broader VLCC market.

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Suezmax and Aframax Tankers Divert Brazilian Crude to US Amid Shifting Market Dynamics

Brazilian crude, typically bound for Asia, is being rerouted to the US Gulf, with rare imports of the heavy sweet Ostra grade arriving for the first time in two years. AET Tankers’ Eagle Kinabalu delivered 500,000 barrels to Valero’s St Charles Refinery, while Sonangol’s Kulumbimbi discharged nearly as much at Houston’s Bostco terminal. These diversions coincide with unattractive VLSFO arbitrage margins to Asia, halted Venezuelan exports to the US, and potential Canadian supply disruptions. Another suezmax, International Seaways’ Loire, is en route to Houston with a combined cargo of Ostra and Pargo crude, although it may redirect to Europe per Shell’s charter, highlighting evolving trade flexibility. The rerouting is expected to tighten Singapore’s VLSFO market in July.

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VLCC Newbuilding Surge: $2.25 Billion in Orders Loom as Oil Outlook Shifts

A wave of up to 18 VLCCs worth over $2.25 billion is set to hit global shipyards, with major owners targeting fleet renewal amid rising oil output and aging tonnage. CMB.Tech, Tsakos Shipping & Trading, Formosa Plastics, Pan Ocean, SCI, Cosco Shipping Energy, and Shandong Shipping are all reportedly in talks with top South Korean and Chinese yards including Samsung, HD Hyundai, Hanwha, Dalian, and Jiangsu New Hantong. Greek owner Tsakos may pioneer LNG-fueled VLCCs, while others stick to conventional marine fuel. The surge in orders comes as 40% of the global VLCC fleet is over 15 years old, with many ships nearing the end of commercial viability due to charterer restrictions. With South Korean yards also in high demand for container ships, tanker owners face tough competition for limited slots — especially as profit margins on VLCCs are thinner. VLCC newbuilding prices have dropped to $125 million, down 3% from 2024, offering further incentive to order. As OPEC+ producers like Saudi Arabia and the UAE increase output, the demand for modern VLCCs is likely to remain strong. The current VLCC orderbook includes 103 ships, mostly under construction in China.