Oil Prices Rebound After OPEC+ Maintains Output Hike Strategy for July

Oil prices rebounded by over $1 per barrel in early Asian trading after OPEC+ confirmed a July production increase of 411,000 barrels per day (bpd), matching the hikes of the previous two months. Brent crude rose $1.06 (1.69%) to $63.84 per barrel, while U.S. WTI climbed $1.16 (1.91%) to $61.95. The decision aligned with market expectations and avoided triggering a sharp selloff. Analysts noted that a surprise larger increase could have led to a significant price drop. The unchanged strategy signals OPEC+'s intent to gradually regain market share and discipline members exceeding output quotas. Oil traders suggest the modest hike had already been priced into last week’s 1% decline in Brent and WTI futures. OPEC+ continues to balance supply increases with concerns over global demand stability. The cautious move indicates the group’s strategic preference for market predictability over aggressive expansion.

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U.S. Oil and Gas Output Hits New Highs in March, While Demand Slumps to 1-Year Low

U.S. crude oil production reached a record high of 13.49 million barrels per day (bpd) in March, surpassing both February's 13.16 million bpd and the previous record of 13.45 million bpd set in October 2024, according to the EIA. Texas, the top-producing state, increased output by 50,000 bpd to 5.71 million bpd, while New Mexico set a new record at 2.26 million bpd. Despite this surge, demand dropped as total petroleum products supplied fell to 19.95 million bpd, the lowest since March 2024. This marks a decline from 20.23 million bpd in February and remains far below the all-time high of 21.67 million bpd in August 2005. U.S. natural gas production also hit a record, with the lower 48 states producing 120.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd), up from 117.4 bcfd in February. Texas led with 36.6 bcfd, and Pennsylvania followed with 21.2 bcfd, though still under its December 2021 high of 21.9 bcfd. The data highlights a growing supply-demand imbalance in the U.S. energy sector.

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Seaworld’s Suezmax Tanker Opens New Panama Route for Kazakhstan Crude to US West Coast

Seaworld Management & Trading’s Sea Galaxy (156,700-dwt, built 2022) has completed the first known shipment of Kazakhstan’s CPC crude to the US West Coast via Panama, creating a new logistics route. The vessel loaded over 1 million barrels at Panama’s Pacific Terminal—split evenly between Guyanese Liza and CPC grades—and delivered more than 506,000 barrels of CPC to Chevron’s Richmond refinery in California. The CPC crude, originating from Russia’s Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, was moved through the Trans-Panama Pipeline, typically used for Colombian and Guyanese crude. While CPC cargoes have previously arrived at Panama’s Atlantic Terminal, this is the first confirmed delivery to the US West Coast via Panama. Signal Group highlights that suezmaxes like Sea Galaxy are increasingly favored over aframaxes for long-haul CPC exports. This shift reflects a strategic realignment toward scalable, cost-effective global crude transport.

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Bahri VLCCs to Handle Red Sea Crude for Japan's Taiyo Oil Amid Cost and Security Shifts

Japan’s Taiyo Oil is shifting its crude procurement strategy by switching from FOB to CIF terms for Saudi Aramco crude, allowing Bahri VLCCs to handle shipping from the Red Sea's Yanbu terminal. This change aims to reduce costs amid high freight rates and security risks linked to Houthi militia attacks. Previously reliant on Japanese VLCCs like NYK’s, Taiyo now avoids the Red Sea due to geopolitical dangers. The company lifts at least one VLCC of Arab Super Light crude monthly, routed to its Malaysian storage in Pengerang or the Kikuma refinery in Japan, which has a 138,000 bpd capacity. Aramco’s shipping arm Bahri, one of the world’s largest VLCC owners, takes over transport responsibilities. From Malaysia, Taiyo uses aframaxes—often through K Line or spot market—to move oil to Japan. The Kikuma refinery remains the only Japanese facility processing Yanbu crude.

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Russian Oil Tanker Idles Near China Amid Sanctions Pressure and Weak Demand

The Big Star, a VLCC carrying 2.1 million barrels of Russia's ESPO Blend, has been anchored near China since May 25, signaling weak regional demand and sanction-related complications. The crude was loaded via ship-to-ship transfers from three Aframax tankers — Leftkada, Kai Fu, and Centurion I — between May 12–17 near Zarubino port and was bound for Jieyang, Guangdong. However, traders suggest the cargoes may have missed optimal sale timing and failed to secure buyers, as Asian oil typically sells 1.5 months before loading. This method of transferring and storing ESPO oil offshore is rare, especially given Kozmino port's proximity to China. China’s seaborne oil imports from Russia fell to a 26-month low in February at 970,000 bpd, due to fears of U.S. secondary sanctions, although demand from private “teapot” refiners has since helped recover volumes. The vessel temporarily lost tracking signals near the Senkaku Islands but remains idle. The situation underscores both logistical bottlenecks and geopolitical tension surrounding Russian oil trade.

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Russia Ramps Up Arctic Oil Exports to Syria Amid Sanctions and Shifting Alliances

Russia has significantly increased its Arctic oil exports to Syria, delivering about 350,000 metric tons (≈2.6 million barrels) so far in 2025, according to LSEG and industry sources. The sanctioned tanker Mitzel recently loaded 140,000 tons of Russian crude from Murmansk and is en route to Syria’s Baniyas port, which has received multiple shipments this year. Tankers Sakina, Aquatica, and Sabina also delivered Russian oil to Syria in March and April. This shift comes as U.S. sanctions on Arctic crude from Gazprom Neft force Russia to find alternative buyers. Syria, once heavily reliant on Iranian oil, faced supply cuts late last year, causing a temporary shutdown of the Baniyas refinery in December. Refinery operations resumed in April with Russian oil shipments, though current capacity remains unclear. Despite Assad’s ouster, Moscow continues negotiations with Syria's new Islamist-led government to maintain strategic bases in Tartous and Hmeimim. Russia also supplied diesel to Syria this year, highlighting ongoing energy and geopolitical ties.

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Russia Projects 50% Surge in Foreign Use of Arctic Northern Sea Route in 2025

Russia's state-run Rosatom expects a 50% increase in foreign vessel voyages along the Northern Sea Route (NSR) in 2025 compared to last year. The NSR, which connects Russian ports with China, can cut travel time by up to 10 days versus the Suez Canal and is increasingly promoted by Moscow as a strategic alternative amid geopolitical tensions. Rosatom, which manages NSR operations and runs a fleet of icebreakers, reported 196 navigation applications as of May 27, including those from foreign-flagged vessels. The NSR is open to traffic during the summer-autumn season from July 1 to November 30, due to harsh winter ice conditions. In 2024, a record 38 million metric tons of goods, including oil and LNG, were transported via the NSR. Russia aims to reduce dependence on routes near EU borders and boost Arctic logistics infrastructure. Previously dominated by Russian firm Sovcomflot, new users like Azerbaijan-based Vista Vvave Shipmanagement have started using the route. Rosatom sees rising international interest in Arctic shipping despite its seasonal limitations.

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Libyan Militia Threatens Oil Exports Amid Renewed Tensions with State Oil Giant

Libya’s eastern government, controlled by militia leader Khalifa Haftar, has warned it may halt oil exports by declaring force majeure at key oilfields and ports, citing alleged assaults on the National Oil Corp (NOC). Haftar's regime, which controls most oilfields, is considering moving NOC’s headquarters from Tripoli to safer cities like Ras Lanuf and Brega. NOC, under the Tripoli-based Government of National Unity, denied any serious incidents and insisted operations remain normal. Libya has a history of oil disruptions, including a 700,000 bpd loss in August 2024 due to factional conflicts. Although production recently reached 1.3 million bpd, consultancy warns it remains under threat. In March 2025, Norway resumed Libyan oil imports for the first time in over two years, with the STI Spiga delivering 600,000 barrels of Sharara crude. These renewed tensions risk destabilizing Mediterranean tanker trade once again.

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Dangote Refinery Extends Record U.S. Crude Buying Spree into July Amid Output Ramp-Up

Nigeria’s Dangote oil refinery will import at least five million barrels of U.S. WTI crude in July, continuing a major buying spree that saw it book a record 300,000 bpd for June and 173,000 bpd in April. For July, about 161,000 bpd has been secured via tenders, with Vitol supplying 2 million barrels, Socar another 2 million, and Glencore the remaining 1 million. The purchases underscore growing competition among oil exporters as U.S. crude struggles in Asia amid falling UAE Murban spot premiums. Dangote's refinery, with a 650,000 bpd capacity, has been buying WTI semi-regularly since March 2024 and also sourced spot cargoes from Angola, Algeria, Equatorial Guinea, and Brazil in 2025. The refinery is primarily fed by Nigerian grades but must import due to local supply limitations, said Dangote exec Edwin Devakumar. It is currently ramping up toward 85% capacity, after running at 80% since mid-March, though issues have constrained full operations, according to IIR. Final import volumes for July may rise as additional purchases are made.

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Pan Ocean Reenters VLCC Market with $254M Order for Eco-Friendly Tankers

South Korea’s Pan Ocean is set to double its VLCC fleet by investing KRW 350.5 billion ($254 million) in two newbuildings, marking its first VLCC order in five years. Each vessel, priced at $127 million, will be eco-friendly and capable of running on LNG or ammonia, aligning with Pan Ocean’s decarbonization goals. The contract signing is expected in June, with delivery planned for the first half of 2028. The last VLCC order by Pan Ocean was in 2020 for two 300,000-dwt tankers built by DSME, delivered in 2021. Pan Ocean exited the VLCC segment in 2013 due to court receivership but has since rebuilt a diversified fleet of 115 vessels, including bulk carriers, LNG ships, and tankers. Currently, the company has four ultramax bulkers under construction at Oshima Shipbuilding and six MR product tankers scheduled for delivery by 2027. In 2024, Pan Ocean acquired four bulkers and one ore carrier, continuing its active presence in the sale-and-purchase market. This new order strengthens Pan Ocean’s position in the wet bulk sector while advancing its sustainability commitments.

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IAEA Launches ‘Atlas’ Initiative to Advance Nuclear Propulsion for Greek and Global Shipping

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is promoting nuclear maritime propulsion, meeting with the Union of Greek Shipowners (UGS), a key player in the world’s largest shipping nation responsible for 25% of the global merchant fleet generating $40bn annually. The IAEA’s new project, Atlas (Atomic Technologies Licensed for Applications at Sea), aims to develop an international regulatory framework for nuclear-powered shipping in cooperation with the International Maritime Organization. Launched after an August 2024 workshop with industry leaders including Lloyd’s Register, Atlas seeks to update outdated maritime safety conventions to fit modern nuclear reactor designs and ensure safety and security standards. The initiative will involve nuclear regulators, classification societies, ports, and offshore industries, with gradual implementation expected throughout the 2030s and a full regulatory framework by 2035. Early pilot projects are anticipated by the early 2030s, with companies like Dutch offshore contractor Allseas planning nuclear-powered vessels by 2030. The push reflects growing interest in carbon-free shipping and the potential for nuclear propulsion to decarbonize the industry while enhancing resilience. The IAEA views itself as best positioned to coordinate this global effort alongside the IMO.