Oil Prices Dip Amid U.S.-Iran Talks and Anticipated OPEC+ Output Hike

Oil prices fell by about 1% on Tuesday, driven by fears of oversupply amid progress in U.S.-Iran nuclear talks and expectations of increased production from OPEC+. Brent crude settled at $64.09 per barrel (down 65 cents), and WTI fell to $60.89 (down 64 cents). Although no policy changes are expected at the OPEC+ meeting on Wednesday, sources indicate a possible agreement on accelerated output hikes for July during a follow-up meeting on Saturday. Any breakthrough in U.S.-Iran negotiations could lift sanctions and allow more Iranian oil into the market, further pressuring prices. Preliminary data suggests U.S. crude inventories rose by 500,000 barrels last week, adding to oversupply concerns. Analysts warn that the combination of rising output and possible Iranian barrels could be a “major near-term headwind” for oil. Supporting prices somewhat were easing U.S.-EU trade tensions and a wildfire in Alberta that disrupted Canadian production. Market uncertainty continues until OPEC+ finalizes its production decision this weekend.

___________________________________

OPEC+ Expected to Approve Additional 411,000 bpd Output Hike for July

OPEC+ is expected to approve an additional oil output hike of 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) for July during a meeting this Saturday, according to three anonymous group delegates. While the broader 22-member group is not expected to alter policy during its Wednesday meeting, eight core members have already been unwinding recent voluntary cuts. These members previously increased output by 411,000 bpd in both May and June, exceeding initial expectations. The planned July hike continues the group's gradual move to restore supply amid rising global oil demand and market share competition. Since 2022, OPEC+ has implemented three layers of output cuts, two of which remain in place until the end of 2025. Analysts, including SEB's Ole Hvalbye, see a high probability of the July increase but believe it is already factored into current oil prices. Brent crude fell below $60 in April before recovering to around $65, influenced by both OPEC+ policy and U.S. trade concerns. Further hikes through October may be on the table as part of a phased unwinding strategy.

___________________________________

U.S. Narrows Chevron’s Venezuela License Amid Renewed Sanctions Pressure

The Trump administration has issued a limited authorization allowing Chevron to retain its assets and stakes in joint ventures with Venezuela’s state oil firm PDVSA, while letting its broader operating license expire. The new terms, similar to Chevron's 2020–2022 license, prohibit oil production, exports, or any expansion of activities to prevent payments to Nicolás Maduro’s government. Chevron has complied with U.S. sanctions and notified Venezuelan authorities and contractors that existing service and procurement contracts are now terminated. The prior license, issued under President Biden, included a wind-down period for completing oil exports, which has now expired despite earlier indications of a 60-day extension. Trump revoked the license citing Maduro’s failure to make democratic reforms or improve migrant return conditions. Venezuela, holding the world's largest crude reserves, has seen output plummet to around 1 million barrels per day due to sanctions and chronic mismanagement. The U.S. Treasury and PDVSA did not comment on whether similar restrictions will be applied to other foreign firms. Chevron’s continued presence aims to preserve long-term assets without violating the updated sanctions framework.

___________________________________

Angelicoussis Secures Petrobras VLCC Charter at Premium Rate Despite Market Downturn

Angelicoussis Shipping Group (ASG) has reportedly fixed a two-year charter with Petrobras for one of its VLCCs—either Maran Libra or Maran Leo—at $48,800 per day, a rate above current market averages. The deal is expected to begin in June and stands out as the only new crude tanker term contract reported this week. London brokers suggest the premium rate may reflect favorable contract terms or ASG’s strong reputation, with Alibra hinting the agreement could span three years. Spot VLCC rates have dropped to $41,800 per day, driven by weaker demand from Asia, particularly China. Market analytics from Signal Group show a consistent decline in tonne-days since April, reflecting lower oil movement and economic uncertainty. VLCC availability in Ras Tanura remains high at 128 ships, keeping pressure on rates. Braemar reports aframax deals at $32,000 per day and suezmaxes at $36,000, with aframaxes buoyed by EU and UK sanctions adding 200 tankers to restricted lists. ASG declined to comment on the Petrobras fixture.

___________________________________

Norway’s Oil and Gas Investments Set for Record High in 2025, But 2026 Decline Looms

Norwegian oil and gas investments are projected to hit a record 269.1 billion crowns ($26.62 billion) in 2025, surpassing February's estimate of 253.8 billion crowns and last year’s total of 251.2 billion. This marks a peak in spending for the country’s largest business sector, according to Norway's statistics office (SSB). Preliminary figures for 2026 show a decline to 206.6 billion crowns, though this is up from the previous estimate of 197.1 billion, reflecting evolving investment plans. Investment forecasts tend to increase as companies finalize project details toward the end of the year. A significant number of new oil and gas fields are scheduled for development in 2024 and 2025. Vår Energi, majority-owned by Eni, plans to approve up to 14 new projects this year, focusing on small discoveries near existing infrastructure to maximize output from current fields. However, the SSB cautioned that even these new projects are unlikely to offset the expected drop in 2026. The projected decline reflects long-term challenges in sustaining high investment levels amid resource maturation and strategic shifts.

___________________________________

Wildfire in Alberta Shuts Down Oil Operations and Forces Swan Hills Evacuation

A wildfire burning out of control in northern Alberta, near the town of Swan Hills, has led to oil production shutdowns and the evacuation of approximately 1,200 residents. The blaze spans roughly 1,600 hectares and is located about 7 km from the town. Aspenleaf Energy halted about 4,000 barrels-of-oil-equivalent per day and evacuated field staff as a precaution, with the fire reported 10 km from its facilities. Canadian Natural Resources, the country’s largest oil and gas producer, also operates in the area but has not commented on the impact. Evacuees were directed to a reception centre in Whitecourt, about 50 minutes away. A second smaller wildfire of 390 hectares is burning out of control in Yellowhead County. These are the first major fires of Alberta’s spring season, following last year’s devastating wildfire season, which at one point shut in 319,000 boepd. Alberta has a history of wildfire-related disruptions, including the 2016 Fort McMurray disaster that reduced output by 1 million barrels per day.

___________________________________

Saudi Aramco Raises $5 Billion in First Dollar Bond Sale of 2025

Saudi Aramco has raised $5 billion through its first U.S. dollar bond sale of 2025 as it looks to bolster liquidity amid large-scale spending and softer oil prices. The issuance included three tranches, with the longest — a $2.25 billion 30-year bond — priced at 1.55 percentage points above U.S. Treasuries, tighter than the initial guidance of 1.85 points. Proceeds will be used for general corporate purposes. This follows a $9 billion bond issuance in 2023, signaling a return to international debt markets. Aramco's net debt reached its highest level in nearly three years in Q1, driven by hefty operational costs and dividend commitments. Despite this, its 5.3% gearing ratio remains well below that of most global oil majors, allowing room for further borrowing. The bond sale comes amid a broader borrowing push by the Saudi government and state-linked firms to address budget deficits caused by economic diversification plans and lower oil revenues. Saudi debt levels surged in the last quarter, marking the largest quarterly increase on record.

___________________________________

Shipping Corporation of India Launches $1 Billion Newbuilding Drive for Tankers and Boxships

Shipping Corporation of India (SCI) has initiated discussions with South Korean and Chinese shipyards for a nearly $1 billion order involving two VLCCs and up to four 16,000-teu container ships. The move is part of a broader $10 billion Indian government plan to expand its tanker fleet through 2040, aiming for energy security with 112 new vessels. While the VLCCs will be conventionally fueled, SCI has yet to decide the fuel type for the container ships. The container ship portion includes two firm orders and options for two more, with estimated pricing suggesting $120 million per VLCC and up to $190 million per boxship. Despite initial contact with Chinese yards, geopolitical tensions may push SCI to favor South Korean builders. India is also exploring domestic shipbuilding partnerships, with HD Hyundai and Hanwha Ocean considering joint ventures or facilities in Kochi and Gujarat. SCI, India’s largest shipping company with 125 vessels, is also modernizing its aging fleet, having recently shown interest in secondhand containerships and an MR tanker. Concurrently, SCI is attempting to sell its 2002-built crude tanker Maharshi Parashuram.