Oil Prices Rise as Trump Delays EU Tariff Deadline, Market Eyes OPEC+ Meeting

Oil prices climbed in early Asian trading after U.S. President Donald Trump extended the deadline for trade talks with the EU to July 9, easing fears of imminent tariffs that could have dampened global economic growth and oil demand. Brent crude rose by $0.37 to $65.15 a barrel, while WTI gained $0.34 to reach $61.87. Market sentiment was boosted by Trump’s decision and by limited progress in U.S.-Iran nuclear talks, which reduced fears of increased Iranian oil supply. Additionally, U.S. oil drillers cut the number of active rigs by 8 to 465 — the lowest since November 2021 — according to Baker Hughes data. However, gains were tempered by expectations that OPEC+ may increase output by another 411,000 barrels per day for July. The group is also considering fully unwinding its voluntary 2.2 million bpd cuts by the end of October, having already raised targets by 1 million bpd for April through June.

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U.S. to Grant Chevron Limited License for Essential Operations in Venezuela

The Trump administration is preparing to issue a limited license allowing Chevron to perform only minimal maintenance and safety-related operations in Venezuela, Bloomberg reports. This narrowly tailored waiver would permit Chevron to continue essential upkeep as its current license nears expiration next week. The decision follows requests by several international partners of Venezuela's sanctioned state oil company, PDVSA, for extensions to their licenses. Any extension requires approval from both the U.S. Treasury and State Departments. Venezuela, despite having some of the largest oil reserves globally, has seen production plummet over the past decade due to mismanagement and U.S. sanctions imposed since 2019. Licenses granted to Chevron and others have contributed modestly to a recovery in Venezuelan oil output and exports since 2023.

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Panama Tightens Oversight of Ship-to-Ship Transfers Amid Sanctions Scrutiny

Panama’s Maritime Authority will now require all Panama-flagged vessels over 150 gross tons to notify authorities at least two days in advance of any ship-to-ship (STS) oil transfer. This move comes amid growing concerns about "dark-fleet" tankers that disable tracking systems to evade sanctions and environmental regulations. The U.S., under President Donald Trump, has increased pressure on major ship registries like Panama’s — the world’s largest with over 8,500 ships — to clamp down on such practices. Trump has even threatened U.S. control over the Panama Canal due to Panama's perceived inaction. Panama has already removed several vessels from its registry following rule violations and insists it will not serve as a "haven for sanctions evasion." New rules mandate detailed disclosures about transfer locations, ship identities, hydrocarbon volumes, and compliance with international maritime laws.

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EU Plans New Sanctions Targeting Russian Banks, Oil Cap, and Nord Stream

The European Union is considering a sweeping new sanctions package that would cut over 20 Russian banks from the SWIFT payment system, lower the G7 oil price cap to around $45, and impose a formal ban on the Nord Stream gas pipelines. These measures aim to reduce Russia’s financial and technological resources as the war in Ukraine continues. The EU is also weighing €2.5 billion in new trade restrictions and additional limits on Russia’s shadow oil tanker fleet and foreign investment operations. Germany has already expressed support for banning the Nord Stream pipelines to block any future revival attempts. The proposed sanctions, which require unanimous approval by EU member states, would mark the bloc’s 18th round of restrictions since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022. Discussions are ongoing, and some measures may change before formal adoption.

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Sovcomflot Reports $393M Q1 Loss Amid Sanctions Impact on Tanker Fleet

Russian state shipowner Sovcomflot recorded a $393 million net loss in Q1 2025, sharply down from an $80 million loss in Q4 2024, primarily due to a $322 million impairment linked to US sanctions on its tanker fleet. Revenue dropped to $278 million from $397 million, while EBITDA fell to $105 million with a strong 47% margin. The company noted that 63 of its vessels were included in the January US sanctions list, causing “unprecedented” operational challenges but highlighted stability from long-term contracts and fleet diversity. Sovcomflot maintains $6.5 billion in assets and $1.29 billion in cash, asserting it complies with all laws and denying any legal basis for the sanctions, which it claims are politically motivated. The firm criticized the sanctions for undermining the global maritime shipping system and emphasized its commitment to maritime safety and operational quality despite restrictions. Sanctions pressure on Sovcomflot has been intensifying over the past three years.

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Vintage VLCCs Continue Operating in Mainstream Markets Amid Growing Dark Fleet

There are currently 114 VLCCs aged 18 years or older actively trading in mainstream markets, particularly in Southeast Asia and the Middle East Gulf, often on short-haul routes, according to Vortexa. Analysts note that vessel shortages and fewer new deliveries have encouraged owners to extend the service life of these older ships by accepting lower freight rates or shifting them to the "dark fleet," which handles opaque or sanctioned oil shipments. While vintage VLCCs make up a small portion of crude flows from the Middle East, they account for 85% of crude freight voyages in Southeast Asia involving ship-to-ship transfers. The number of aged VLCCs in the dark fleet has more than doubled since 2021, reflecting a multi-tiered freight market and incentives for older vessels to serve sanctioned flows. Scrapping may become necessary if sanctions on Iran are eased through diplomatic agreements, though Iran’s uranium enrichment remains a sticking point. Estimates of the dark fleet size vary, with Pareto Securities identifying just over 200 crude tankers, including 135 VLCCs, while TankerTrackers counts over 1,200 vessels with opaque ownership.

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MOL Secures Charter for First LNG Dual-Fuel VLCC with Idemitsu Tanker, Advancing Green Shipping

Mitsui OSK Lines (MOL) has fixed a new 309,000-dwt LNG dual-fuel VLCC to Japanese oil company Idemitsu Tanker under a long-term time charter, marking the first such vessel chartered by a Japanese oil firm. The 339.5-meter tanker, built by Dalian Cosco KHI Ship Engineering (Dacks), is scheduled for delivery in 2027. LNG fuel usage is expected to cut CO2 emissions by 25-30% compared to conventional fuel oil, supporting MOL’s goal of net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 and operating 90 LNG/methanol dual-fuel vessels by 2030. MOL has ordered six VLCCs from Dacks between 2022 and last year, with prices averaging near $137 million each. The first of these vessels will be delivered in November 2025, with subsequent deliveries through early 2028. MOL aims to lead the shipping industry’s decarbonization by expanding LNG fuel adoption through such strategic partnerships.

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VLGC Spot Freight Rates Spike Sharply Amid High US Propane Production, But Brokers Warn of Correction

VLGC spot freight rates surged rapidly, reaching as high as $60,000 per day earlier this week before easing slightly to $52,000 per day from Saudi Arabia to Japan and $46,000 per day from the US to Asia. Brokers at Fearnley Securities caution the increase is "too much, too quickly," noting that current gas price arbitrage does not justify these high rates. US propane production remains at record levels with 2.8 million barrels per day, supporting strong freight demand, although chartering interest is softening, especially in the Middle East and US Gulf regions. Market sources and Rim Intelligence predict rates may decline from mid-June due to increased vessel availability and weakening demand. Despite uncertainties from the US-China trade war and potential fleet growth in 2026-27, Fearnley expects freight earnings to hold until new US export capacity comes online around July or August. The recent rate rebound followed a steep drop to near $10,000 per day in April amid trade tensions, underscoring tight US propane storage capacity as a key market driver.