Oil Falls 2% on Hopes for US-Iran Deal and Rising Supply Signals

Oil prices fell over 2% on Thursday amid rising expectations of a U.S.-Iran nuclear agreement that could ease sanctions and increase Iranian crude supply. Brent crude settled at $64.53 per barrel and U.S. WTI at $61.62, both down over $1.50. President Trump said Iran had "sort of" agreed to the deal terms, with Iranian officials expressing willingness to negotiate in exchange for sanctions relief. Analysts warned that such a deal could release up to 800,000 barrels per day into the market, pressuring prices. Meanwhile, the U.S. imposed fresh sanctions on Iran’s ballistic missile efforts and entities linked to oil shipments to China. The IEA raised its 2025 oil demand growth forecast to 740,000 bpd, but noted demand for the rest of 2025 would slow due to economic concerns and EV adoption. U.S. crude inventories unexpectedly rose by 3.5 million barrels last week, further dampening sentiment. Russia’s refusal to meet with Ukraine’s Zelenskiy also weighed on geopolitical hopes, while higher projected Black Sea oil exports added to global supply pressure.

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IEA: Global Oil Supply to Outpace Demand in 2024 as OPEC+ Adds Barrels, EVs Curb Growth

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has raised its global oil supply growth forecast for 2024 to 1.6 million barrels per day (bpd), largely due to OPEC+ unwinding production cuts more rapidly than expected. This comes even as U.S. shale growth is revised downward by 40,000 bpd for 2025 and 190,000 bpd for 2026, with producers slashing drilling plans due to lower prices. Oil demand growth for 2025 is now expected at 740,000 bpd, but the IEA warns of a slowdown to 650,000 bpd in the latter half of the year due to economic pressures and record electric vehicle (EV) sales. Despite increased demand estimates from countries like Egypt and Nigeria, the market surplus is projected to rise slightly to 730,000 bpd. Saudi Arabia remains the only OPEC+ member with flexibility to significantly boost output. U.S. shale producers have already cut 14 rigs, and Russia's oil revenue has hit a 10-month low despite rising production and exports. The IEA forecasts oil demand to average 103.90 million bpd in 2025, and supply is expected to rise by 970,000 bpd in 2025, maintaining the surplus trend. EVs are forecast to reach 20 million sales in 2025—14 million of them in China—though the IEA now expects them to displace only 5 million bpd of oil demand by 2030, down from a previous estimate of 6 million.

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US-Iran Nuclear Talks Jolt Tanker Market as Owners Weigh Sanctions vs. Surge

The tanker market is on edge as US and Iran edge closer to a possible nuclear weapons agreement, with US President Donald Trump confirming “very serious” negotiations. If talks fail, analysts at Clarksons Securities expect tighter sanctions enforcement, removing up to 1.6 million barrels per day of Iranian oil from the market and boosting demand for mainstream VLCCs. Conversely, a successful deal could shift Iranian exports from shadow fleet vessels to Iran’s sanctioned but modern NITC-owned fleet. NITC’s 50 tankers, including 38 VLCCs, may be reactivated into the mainstream market, potentially meeting current export needs. However, analysts believe rising volumes would still create added demand for compliant, non-sanctioned tankers. UK broker Braemar noted escalating Western sanctions pressure, including nearly 200 EU-listed ships and 200 UK-blacklisted vessels. This squeeze on the shadow fleet is tightening global tonnage supply, particularly in the ageing vessel segment. As scrutiny grows, conventionally compliant tankers stand to gain from any outcome, giving owners a rare “win-win” scenario.

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First Cargo of Venezuela’s New Crude Blend Reaches US as Sanctions Deadline Nears

A tanker operated by Valloeby Shipping has delivered the first US-bound shipment of Venezuela’s new “Blend 22” crude, just weeks before a 27 May US sanctions wind-down deadline. The VS Progress discharged 247,000 barrels at Energy Transfer’s Nederland terminal, with Valero listed as the final buyer and France’s Maurel & Prom as the cargo recipient. A second shipment on the Cape Tees is en route to Port Arthur, Texas. The shipment also marks the first import from Venezuela’s La Salina terminal into the US, diverging from the usual Jose or Bajo Grande ports. Blend 22, a medium crude from Venezuela’s western oilfields, is PDVSA’s attempt to sustain exports amid tightening US restrictions. Tankers face operational challenges at La Salina due to oil leaks and shallow waters limiting loads to 350,000 barrels. PDVSA recently revoked permission for Chevron-chartered tankers to load, signaling tightening control over exports. Despite complications, Venezuela exported an average of 650,000 barrels per day in 2024, according to BRS Group.

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Chevron, European Firms Lobby U.S. to Retain Stakes in Venezuela JVs Amid Sanctions Rollback

Chevron and several European oil companies are negotiating with the Trump administration to retain stakes in Venezuelan joint ventures after U.S. sanctions were reimposed in March. The companies are seeking a return to limited licenses—similar to those issued between 2020 and 2022—that would allow them to maintain a minimal presence without exporting oil or expanding operations. The U.S. set a May 27 deadline to wind down operations, but left unclear guidance on asset management and staffing, creating legal uncertainty. PDVSA, Venezuela’s state oil firm, has since shifted to prepayment and swap-based deliveries, canceling some crude cargoes to Chevron over payment issues. Chevron, the last major U.S. oil firm operating in Venezuela, controls four JVs responsible for roughly 25% of the country’s 1 million bpd output. Repsol and other European players are also engaged in talks with U.S. officials to stay in the country amid fears of asset seizures or financial losses. Experts warn Venezuela’s output could fall by 15% to 30% by 2026 if no licensing solution is reached. President Maduro criticized U.S. sanctions as “economic war,” while Chevron argues that its continued presence is crucial for American energy security and to prevent further Chinese and Russian influence in the region.

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U.S. Sanctions Singapore-Based Oil Inspector Over Iranian Crude Shipments to China

The U.S. Treasury has sanctioned CCIC Singapore Pte, an oil-inspection firm accused of aiding the covert shipment of Iranian crude to China. The company allegedly certified Iranian oil as Malaysian heavy crude and helped conceal vessel identities. CCIC Singapore, part of a Chinese state-owned group, has gone silent following the sanctions, with its website disabled and local staff refusing comment. The firm played a key role in the regional oil trade, widely used by traders and energy majors in Singapore and Malaysia. Its sudden blacklisting has disrupted trading operations, with companies scrambling to find alternative inspectors. U.S. authorities said the company was involved in a ship-to-ship transfer of 2 million barrels of Iranian oil late last year. These operations occurred in waters around Singapore and Malaysia, known for dark-fleet activity that masks cargo origins. The move reflects Washington's intensified effort to choke off Iranian oil exports and pressure Tehran amid nuclear negotiations.

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Angelicoussis Group Scores High-Value Sale Amid VLCC Market Surge

Greece’s Angelicoussis Shipping Group (ASG) has reportedly sold its 18-year-old VLCC Maran Canopus for $48m to $50m, capitalizing on growing demand for ageing large tankers. The sale aligns with ASG’s steady strategy of retiring older vessels, marking the fourth VLCC aged 17–18 years it has offloaded in recent years. The price tag exceeded vessel valuations by VesselsValue and Signal Ocean, likely aided by ASG’s reputation for well-maintained ships and a strengthening market. Clarksons data shows secondhand VLCC values have risen sharply in May, reversing a two-year low. Market sentiment suggests the VLCC segment has hit bottom and is poised for recovery, buoyed by increased Opec+ oil output. This has sparked a flurry of secondhand VLCC deals, especially from Asian buyers. Other recent transactions include the New Naxos sold by New Shipping for $33m and deals involving Sinokor and Bahri vessels. Meanwhile, ASG is preparing for future fleet renewal, with 11 suezmax newbuildings scheduled for delivery by mid-2027.

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Bio-LNG Gains Momentum After IMO Emissions Breakthrough

Interest in bio-LNG as a marine fuel has surged following the IMO’s landmark decarbonisation agreement, seen as extending fossil LNG compliance into the 2030s. Shipping leaders at Global Maritime Decarbonisation 2025 backed bio-LNG, citing it as the most feasible path for long-term emissions reduction. Carnival Corp’s Michael McNamara emphasized that blending liquefied biomethane (LBM) offers a longer-term compliance solution. Vitol’s Stefan Dubbeldam added that bio-LNG transforms LNG from a transition fuel into a lasting decarbonisation option. Despite past concerns over pricing and scalability, Dubbeldam noted current biomethane supply is sufficient — though intense demand growth is expected within a decade. Shipping, however, competes with other sectors for limited bio-LNG, prompting calls for incentives, possibly via the IMO. Speakers also stressed the need for energy-efficient distribution and a harmonized global certification system for bio-LNG. Regulatory inconsistencies, especially between the IMO and EU over feedstock eligibility, remain a key hurdle to global adoption and scaling.