Oil prices steady as market considers latest US tariff changes

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has reduced its oil demand forecast for this year and next due to trade tariff uncertainty. China's exports surged in March ahead of US tariffs, but concerns about the impact of the US-China trade war on global economic growth and oil demand kept oil prices relatively stable on Tuesday. OPEC has also lowered its demand outlook, while banks like UBS, BNP Paribas, and HSBC have cut their crude price forecasts. There are worries that escalating trade tensions could lead to a deeper US recession and a hard landing in China, causing Brent prices to drop to $40-$60 per barrel. Trump's tariff policies, along with OPEC+ supply increases, have already caused oil prices to fall by 13% this month. The US is considering modifying tariffs on foreign auto imports, but ongoing trade policy upheaval poses significant risks to consumer spending. While US import prices have decreased, some analysts fear that Trump's tariff policies could lead to inflation, complicating the Federal Reserve's ability to lower interest rates. Despite Trump's support for oil drilling, the US Energy Information Administration expects US oil production to peak at 14 million barrels per day by 2027 before declining. In Europe, banks are tightening credit standards due to concerns about the economic outlook, with Germany experiencing a significant drop in investor morale due to US tariff uncertainty.

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US oil production to peak by 2027 as shale boom fades, EIA forecasts

The US Energy Information Administration predicts that US shale oil production will peak at 14 million barrels per day in 2027 before declining rapidly, reaching around 11.3 million bpd by 2050. This marks the end of the US shale boom, with oil output expected to fall following the peak. Despite a brief post-pandemic demand boom next year, US oil demand is not expected to surpass 2019 levels or the 2005 record. The EIA has revised global oil demand growth forecasts due to economic uncertainties, projecting lower oil prices and reduced US oil production growth for 2025 and 2026. This forecast reflects the impact of an intensifying US-China trade war and overall market volatility. Oil prices are expected to average lower than previously forecasted, with Brent crude estimated at $67.87 a barrel this year and WTI crude at $63.88 a barrel in 2025. Currently, Brent futures are trading just below $65 a barrel, while WTI futures are around $61.25, reflecting a decrease of around 13% and 14% respectively for the year. Despite initial optimism, the future of US oil production and demand faces challenges, highlighting the need for strategic planning and adaptation in the industry.

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Exxon to begin installation of floating oil facility in Guyana

A consortium led by Exxon Mobil is installing its fourth floating oil production facility in Guyana. The facility, named 'One Guyana,' has a capacity of 250,000 barrels per day and will increase the consortium's output capacity to 940,000 bpd. This will allow the consortium to develop the Yellowtail and Redtail fields in the Stabroek block, where over 11 billion barrels of oil and gas have been found. The vessel arrived in Guyana this week and production is expected to begin later this year. Exxon controls all production in the country and plans to bring two more vessels in the next two years.

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Chinese Company Purchases Suezmax Tanker from Olimpex Nigeria

A single-ship Hong Kong-based company has purchased a suezmax tanker previously owned by Olimpex Nigeria. The 151,200-dwt vessel, known as Simoon, was sold to Chinese interests for $26 million in March. The tanker is now called Lxh and is the only ship owned and managed by China Overseas Energy Develop, with technical management handled by Built Found Shipmanagement. The Lxh has been used for various trades, including transporting Russian oil to different destinations such as India and China. The sale price aligns closely with VesselsValue's estimate of $25.9 million. This transaction leaves Olimpex Nigeria with a tug, a work vessel, and a water tanker. Contact information for the Chinese entities involved in the deal was not readily available.

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DHT sells Chinese-built VLCCs to align fleet with ‘market trends’

DHT Holdings has sold its two Chinese-built VLCCs, the DHT Lotus and DHT Peony, for a total of $103m, netting the company $85m. The vessels, built in 2011, have served the company well for eight years. The sale aligns with market trends and customer needs. The ships will be delivered to the undisclosed buyer in April and July, carrying a total of $15.9m in debt. DHT will record gains of $17.5m in the second quarter and $15.5m in the third quarter. The sale comes at a slight discount to VesselsValue's estimate of just under $110m. Despite initial concerns about high port fees on Chinese-built vessels, the White House has indicated lower fees might be implemented. Valuation services estimate the DHT Lotus at $54.3m and the DHT Peony at $55.5m. The sale aligns with DHT's strategy to fine-tune their fleet profile.

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Russian Dark Fleet-Affiliated Tanker, Argent, Settles Dispute in India and is Cleared for Departure

The Russian dark fleet-affiliated tanker, Argent, had its arrest in India lifted after reaching a settlement with Chinese engineering service companies. The owner, Sapang Shipping, paid $2.2m to resolve a $4.2m dispute, allowing the vessel to depart Sikka. Argent has a history of ownership changes and is managed by Buena Vista Shipping in India. It has been primarily used for transporting crude oil from Russia to India. The vessel is currently en route to the Suez Canal.