2024.10.15

Iranian tanker loadings drop 70% amid fears of Israeli retaliation

Iranian tanker loadings plummeted nearly 70% in the first 10 days of October due to concerns over potential Israeli retaliation for Iran’s missile attacks. The National Iranian Tanker Co. (NITC) moved vessels away from the Kharg Island terminal, resulting in a drop from 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) to just 600,000 bpd. Although loadings have resumed, the pace remains slower than usual, with current export volumes at around 800,000 bpd. Vortexa noted a sharp decrease in VLCC loadings during early October. Despite tensions, Iran is unlikely to close the Strait of Hormuz, as 95% of its oil exports are destined for China, a crucial economic partner.

[SLOW] https://slowspace.io/ FLOW Kharg Island Terminal

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Iran sanctions could boost mainstream VLCC demand by 5%, says Jefferies

New US sanctions on Iran’s petroleum industry could shift about 5% of VLCC cargoes from the shadowy "dark fleet" to mainstream carriers, according to Jefferies shipping analyst Omar Nokta. The sanctions may reduce Iran’s elevated exports, which averaged 1.75 million barrels per day in Q3 2023, significantly up from 0.30 million bpd in 2022. Should other producers replace the lost Iranian barrels, mainstream VLCCs could see increased demand, adding roughly 40 vessels to the active fleet. The situation echoes a 2019 US sanction on Chinese Cosco-controlled VLCCs, which caused a spike in tanker rates. However, investor reaction was muted, with shares of major VLCC operators like Frontline and DHT Holdings seeing slight declines.

[SLOW] VLCC Market Monitor _ Global : weekly lifting VLCC count

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[SLOW] https://slowspace.io/ FLOW MT Gesi

Sale of nomadic VLCC highlights shadow fleet valuations and uncertainty

The 305,750-dwt VLCC Gesi, suspected of being part of the shadow fleet, has been sold for the fourth time in four years for $43.3 million, a discounted price from the $48 million paid a year ago. Ownership details remain opaque, with varying reports attributing the ship to Turkish owners and unidentified buyers. The vessel’s history includes multiple sales, shifts in technical management, and changes in flag registration, all indicative of its connection to the shadow fleet. This fleet, known for trading illicit cargoes and operating outside traditional channels, has contributed to higher values for older tankers. Despite a cooling of VLCC values since early 2023, Gesi was recently valued between $42.2 million and $50.6 million by different sources.

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[SLOW] EIA - Crude Oil Outlook _ World oil supply and demand

OPEC lowers global oil demand growth forecast for 2024 and 2025

OPEC has reduced its global oil demand growth forecast for 2024 to 1.93 million barrels per day (bpd), down from the previous 2.03 million bpd estimate, marking the third consecutive downward revision. China's economic challenges and the shift toward cleaner fuels, such as LNG in heavy-duty trucks, are key factors driving the downgrade. OPEC also cut its 2025 demand growth estimate to 1.64 million bpd. Despite production cuts by OPEC+ since 2022, oil demand growth remains above pre-pandemic averages. In September, OPEC+ production declined by 557,000 bpd due to unrest in Libya and cuts by Iraq, while Russia and Kazakhstan slightly adjusted their outputs. Differences in demand forecasts between OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA) persist, with the IEA projecting much lower demand growth.

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[SLOW] https://slowspace.io/ Trade Flow China seaborne crude imports by origin ports

China's oil imports drop in September amid weak margins and refinery maintenance

China's oil imports decreased by 7.4% in September, down to 45.5 million tons (11.1 million barrels a day), due to weak refining margins and refinery maintenance. State-owned refineries, including Sinopec Jinling and PetroChina Jilin, shut units for planned maintenance, further contributing to the decline. Despite the global rise in oil prices amid geopolitical tensions, weakening demand from China, the world’s largest oil importer, poses a counterbalance. Chinese oil imports are expected to remain at similar levels for the rest of the year, while future growth in demand is slowing due to increased use of electric vehicles and LNG-fueled trucks.

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Petrobras prioritizes maximizing oil output from existing fields

Petrobras is focused on maximizing oil extraction from its current fields in Brazil, particularly older ones like those in the Campos Basin, as it seeks to sustain production growth and offset declines expected in the 2030s. CEO Magda Chambriard emphasized the importance of revamping aging oil platforms instead of scrapping them. With global oil demand facing challenges, Petrobras is advancing new projects, including launching up to three floating production vessels by year’s end, adding 505,000 barrels per day in capacity. However, equipment constraints and a push for more natural gas in Brazil may limit production growth over the next few years. Petrobras will maintain its dividend policy while keeping investments steady at levels similar to its previous $102 billion five-year plan.

[SLOW] EIA - Crude Oil Outlook _ Brazil