2024.10.09

[SLOW] Oil Market _ Benchmark

Crude prices drop over 4% on potential Hezbollah-Israel ceasefire news

Crude oil prices fell by over 4% on Tuesday amid reports of a possible ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel. Brent crude dropped $3.75, settling at $77.18 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures declined by $3.57 to $73.57 per barrel. The decline followed an earlier spike in prices, with Brent surpassing $80 per barrel after concerns over escalating Middle East tensions. Despite the ceasefire news, fears of potential attacks on Iranian oil infrastructure still provided some support to prices. Analysts warned of continued volatility, with the focus on U.S. crude inventory data and the impact of Hurricane Milton on oil platforms in the Gulf of Mexico.

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[SLOW] EIA - Crude Oil Outlook _ United States

US oil production growth set to slow in 2025, EIA reports

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has revised its expectations for crude oil production growth in 2025, now projecting an increase of only 320,000 barrels per day, significantly lower than previous estimates. This adjustment brings the growth rate down from 3.2% to 2.4%, despite overall production reaching a record 13.54 million barrels per day. The slowdown follows a notable rise in production last year, but recent data shows a decline in the number of active oil rigs, indicating that shale producers may prioritize shareholder returns over growth. Additionally, the EIA has lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth to 1.2 million barrels per day, contributing to concerns about an oversupplied oil market in 2025.

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[SLOW] https://slowspace.io/ _ MT BOSTON from Venezuela to India

Vitol sells Venezuelan crude to Indian refiners amid sanction relief

Vitol has sold 2 million barrels of Venezuelan crude oil to two Indian state refiners for November delivery, as India's imports of Venezuelan oil continue to grow following U.S. sanctions relief. Indian Oil Corp (IOC) is set to receive 1.2 million barrels, while Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd (MRPL) will take 800,000 barrels. The Venezuelan Merey 16 crude grade is being loaded onto the vessel Boston for MRPL. While IOC Paradip refinery, with a capacity of 300,000 barrels per day, is equipped to process Venezuelan oil, MRPL has limited interest in heavier grades like Merey and has infrequently purchased oil from Venezuela. The shipments are part of resumed imports allowed by the U.S. Treasury despite sanctions against Venezuela’s government. Reliance Industries has also received U.S. authorization to resume importing Venezuelan oil, engaging in a swap deal for heavy naphtha with PDVSA. Some Venezuelan oil cargoes are being sold to intermediaries, with unclear details about Vitol’s license status.

[SLOW] https://slowspace.io/  FLOW Mangalore / Paradip

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Aframax tanker demand declines as Nigeria’s Dangote refinery shifts to domestic crude

Nigeria's Dangote refinery is transitioning to domestic crude, significantly reducing demand for Aframax tankers. The refinery will import 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) of Nigerian oil in October and November as it ramps up to its full capacity of 650,000 bpd. This shift away from importing US crude will tighten Africa's crude export market, leaving fewer barrels for Aframax shipments. In the third quarter, Dangote’s domestic crude supply averaged 180,000 bpd, contributing to a 10% drop in Nigerian exports. If the trend continues, fourth-quarter exports will significantly underperform compared to last year. Meanwhile, Nigerian National Petroleum Corp (NNPC) has secured two Suezmaxes to supply crude to the refinery, with plans to provide four shipments annually in naira to ease foreign exchange pressures.

[SLOW] https://slowspace.io/ Dangote Petroleum Refinery Cargo Flow

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[SLOW] https://slowspace.io/  Distance Hurricane Milton

Hurricane Milton drives surge in product tanker rates in Gulf of Mexico

Spot rates for MR product tankers in the US Gulf Coast and Caribbean surged as Hurricane Milton swept through the Gulf of Mexico. Rates for tankers carrying clean products from Houston to Colombia’s Caribbean coast rose by over 28%, reaching $53,600 per day, the highest since July. Similarly, spot earnings on the Houston-to-Rotterdam route jumped by 20.4%, hitting nearly $30,700 per day. The rate spikes are attributed to the disruptions caused by the Category 5 hurricane, which weakened to Category 3 as it approached Florida, halting all port traffic in Tampa. Despite the storm's impact on regional tanker rates, experts, including Samuel Norton of Overseas Shipholding Group, expect minimal effects on international MR tanker markets.

[SLOW] Clean MR Market Monitor _ Atlantic : TCE comparison by MR routes

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Russia weighs diesel export ban for non-producers amid rising domestic prices

Russia is considering banning diesel exports by companies that do not produce it, following concerns that refiners might be losing subsidies. This potential restriction is part of ongoing discussions as the government seeks to address rising domestic diesel prices. Russia, the largest seaborne diesel exporter just ahead of the United States, temporarily banned diesel exports last year and may do so again to stabilize the local market. The high cost of winter-grade diesel has increased concerns about reducing or canceling subsidy payments meant to incentivize producers to prioritize domestic supply. Russia exports around 35 million metric tons of diesel annually, and since the EU embargo on Russian oil products, exports have shifted to markets in Brazil, Turkey, Africa, Asia, and the Middle East.

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[SLOW] https://slowspace.io/ Trade Flow Qatar naphtha exports by destination countries

QatarEnergy secures 20-year naphtha supply deal with Shell

QatarEnergy has signed a 20-year agreement with Shell to supply up to 18 million metric tons of naphtha starting in April 2024. This is QatarEnergy’s largest and longest naphtha sales deal to date. The agreement is backed by Qatar’s North Field expansion, part of the world’s largest natural gas field shared with Iran, and is expected to come online in 2026. The deal strengthens the strategic partnership between QatarEnergy and Shell, which includes joint investments in LNG projects, the Pearl GTL plant, and other global ventures.